All is quiet now, but that will change next week as an active weather pattern returns. A weak frontal boundary will scoot through the Ohio Valley Tuesday with a few showers before a bigger deal unfolds mid and late week. It’s a classic “leader-follower” type setup.
The lead storm system will lift northwest of the region Wednesday, bringing a slug of moisture northward into the region. Moderate to heavy rain is a good bet at times in an unseasonably mild pattern. Highs will zoom into the 50s to near 60° and we’re even talking about some embedded thunder to boot. A solid 1” to 2” of rain seems like a good call with this system, most of which will fall Wednesday.
As this storm exists, it’ll drag a cold front and more seasonally cool air back into the region for late week. That’s when additional energy will track east out of the Plains and towards the East Coast.
While confidence is high on this setup, exactly where the energy phases with the late week system will determine whether we’re talking about an Ohio Valley winter storm threat or more of an East Coast threat. Stay tuned. At the very least, despite the mild pattern, next week sure won’t be boring…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/25/video-morning-update-on-our-snow-storm-looking-ahead-to-additional-challenges-this-weekend-and-next-week/
When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Temperatures: Lower 30s
Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
While not “overly cold” (at least yet), we’re heading into a special pattern for snow/ winter weather lovers. After the leading wave of accumulating snow over the weekend, a much more “meaningful” storm eyes the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday.
In short, we don’t have any changes to our thinking since Saturday on this storm. Snow will lift in here from the south during the overnight and become heavy throughout the morning hours. Snowfall rates will likely approach, if not exceed, 1″ per hour during this time period and will lead to a horrendous morning rush all throughout the region. If you don’t absolutely have to travel, we recommend staying put. Embedded intense snow bands will likely pivot into the city throughout the morning, elevating those snowfall rates and reducing visibility.
Heaviest snow looks to fall in the 2a to 11a timeframe in the city, itself. This will be a wet, heavy (paste-like) snow.
We still don’t see a reason to alter our ongoing snowfall forecast published first to Clients Saturday. This is only for the Tuesday night-Wednesday period and doesn’t account for additional light snow accumulation that will take place Thursday into Friday. Needless to say, there will likely be some across central Indiana that close in on double-digit storm totals by the time all is said and done.
And just as soon as we catch our breath from this storm, attention will turn to the following winter weather makers:
A clipper system that will scoot through the Great Lakes region Friday. This will likely lead to a period of more concentrated, albeit light, snow Friday PM. Additional light snow accumulation is possible across central and northern IN during this time period.
2. Another southern stream system approaches Saturday evening. While milder air will be present (at least aloft), it’s also very possible the modeling will be forced to correct colder after realizing what kind of deep snowpack will likely be deposited across the region midweek. Long story short, we feel this storm system will also be capable of producing a wintry mix of snow and/ or sleet and freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday. Additional details will have to be sorted out in more specific fashion after midweek.
Thereafter, with the negative PNA and negative EPO in place, we’re likely to deal with additional wintry “fun and games” into the middle and latter part of next week, but with this being more than 7 days out, there’s no reason getting too excited from this point with specifics.
Needless to say, we’re in about as good of a position as one could ask for accumulating winter weather events in the medium range period. We’ll just have to take one storm at a time.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
The first in a series of accumulating snow events will move in Sunday morning followed by another (heavier) event Tuesday night and Wednesday, with accumulating snow continuing late into the upcoming work week. In short, we don’t have any changes from this morning’s video discussion, but did want to add some specific snow numbers behind our ideas. First thing first and that’s Sunday:
Mostly cloudy skies this evening will lower and thicken during the overnight and snow is expected to break out across western IN between 3a and 4a, reaching the city, itself, between 5a and 6a. Snow should reach peak intensity between 7a and 10a in the city before the steadiest snow pushes east. Lighter snow is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon hours. Despite marginally cold air and relatively warm surfaces for the time of the year, slick roadways are expected Sunday morning as the snow increases in intensity. Plowing and salting will likely be required before the snow intensity diminishes from west to east Sunday afternoon.
6a forecast radar Sunday
8a forecast radar Sunday
10a forecast radar Sunday
12p forecast radar Sunday
Temperatures will be in the lower 30s while the majority of the snow falls so this will be a heavier, wetter snow than the champagne powder we dealt with pre-Christmas. Also a friendly reminder to discredit any sources trying to show you a kuchera snowfall map with this event (or the next event for that matter). These will both likely be much closer, if not even a little less, than 10:1 ratio type snow events- perfect for a snowball fight or building a snowman!
Sunday’s snowfall forecast:
A few lingering early flurries are possible Monday, otherwise the bulk of the daytime Monday and Tuesday should be precipitation free. We may even see some sun work back into the picture during this timeframe. As we push into Tuesday evening, clouds will once again lower and thicken and give way to snow lifting in from the southwest after 11p to midnight.
Low pressure will take a “textbook” track from LA Tuesday evening, west TN Wednesday morning, southeast of the OH river Wednesday afternoon and into Ohio by Wednesday evening. Long time Hoosiers know that spells snowy excitement throughout the region and sure enough, we expect an area-wide moderate to heavy snow event.
Now, this won’t be some sort of blockbuster type storm (remember, this kind of pattern doesn’t support such), but the low will be plenty strong enough to tap into the Gulf moisture and throw it north into an airmass that’s just cold enough to support another wet, heavy (paste-like) snow event Tuesday night through Wednesday. As the storm moves off to the northeast, snow will become a bit more powdery Thursday into Friday morning with some additional light accumulation expected in the colder airmass.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/21/saturday-early-afternoon-thoughts-and-snowfall-forecast-for-sunday-and-tuesday-night-thursday/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
