Jan 06
Updated 01.06.24 @ 7:57a An area-wide 1.5″ to 2.5″ (locally heavier) snow is greeting folks early this Saturday morning. It’s the type of wet snow that truly gives that winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/06/video-light-snow-redevelops-tonight-active-wintry-pattern-only-ramping-up/
Jan 04
Updated 01.04.24 @ 5:56p
An impressive high latitude blocking pattern is forecast to establish itself over the upcoming week to 10 days. Should this come to fruition as modeled, this will be one of the more textbook winter blocks we’ve seen in quite some time. While it doesn’t mean it “has” to get cold immediately, it certainly does immediately kickstart a very active and stormy regime. Storms will come at us almost in an every other day type fashion. Here’s the idea on the initial 3 storms forecast to impact central Indiana between now and this time next week.
I. Late Friday night and Saturday: It continues to look like a surface low will move along the north-central Gulf Coast with a trough of low pressure extending north into the lower Ohio Valley. Eventually, the surface low will make a move up the eastern seaboard, leading to heavy snow and mixed precipitation for portions of the big cities. Back here on the home front, we expect snow to overspread central Indiana from south to north late Friday evening (likely reaching the city, itself, between 11p and midnight). Periods of snow will likely continue until around sunrise and then diminish from southwest to northeast. By this point, a general area-wide 1″ to 2″ of wet snow is expected to fall. Since most, if not all, of this snow will fall when it’s dark, some light accumulation is now expected on area roadways. If you have travel plans overnight or early Saturday morning, allow extra time to safely reach your destination.
[– Snow removal Clients, salting and plowing will be likely late Friday night into early Saturday morning, prior to sunrise.]
Additional upper level energy will rotate across the central Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, allowing for a renewed area of light precipitation to blossom. Most of this should fall as wet snow along and north of the I-70 corridor with mixed rain and snow south. An additional wet coating of snow is possible during this timeframe.
II. Monday night and Tuesday: This will be a significantly stronger storm system, capable of much heavier precipitation and high winds.
After a calm daytime Monday, precipitation should overspread the region from southwest to northeast after dark, likely reaching the I-70 corridor towards 8p to 10p. While we still have to hone in on the specific track of the surface low, there aren’t any big changes from the idea posted this morning. Heavy wet snow or mixed precipitation is likely at the onset across central Indiana before a transition to plain ole rain along and south of the I-70 corridor during the daytime Tuesday. (The timing of the arrival of precipitation coming during the late evening/ overnight is worrisome for winter weather impacts, even in the face of warm air advection/ marginal temperatures).
Further south, this should be an all rain event on the front end. The duration of mixed precipitation/ snow will have a big impact on central IN accumulation potential. Further north, an eventual change to a brief period of rain is also likely, but we think there will be heavy accumulation of snow (WSW criteria) before this takes place across the northern 1/3 of the state. This initial precipitation zone is at least a good starting point, but expect some additional changes as we go through the next day or two.
Notes/ Asides: Liquid equivalent precipitation should reach 1″ to 2″ across all of the state with system #2 and wind gusts to 40 MPH + will be a good bet. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the storm look for a period of wind-whipped light snow area-wide Wednesday morning.
III. Mid/ late next week: An additional strong storm is likely to develop along the front range during this time before tracking east northeast along a pressing arctic boundary. We’re heading into the type of pattern that’s conducive for quick deepening (strengthening) of the respective surface lows and don’t see any reason this won’t be the case yet again around this time next week. – Obviously, it’s far too early to try and get too cute with detailed specifics with system #3, but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we progress through the next several days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/busy-busy-pattern-on-deck/
Jan 04
Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/video-multiple-impactful-storms-into-mid-month-discussing-overnight-ensemble-trends/
Jan 03
Updated 01.03.24 @ 5:21p
Today’s 12z guidance continues to reflect quite an active and stormy period of weather kicking off this weekend, continuing through mid-January. This is a byproduct of all of the high latitude blocking that develops over the span of the next 6-10 days.
The negative PNA is putting a real wrench in any one of these “meaningful” area of low pressure systems, Saturday’s excluded, from being totally on the wintry side. Look for above normal precipitation over the upcoming 6-10 days with plenty of mixing events going on.
Speaking of that, we don’t have any changes to our thoughts on the first two systems:
Saturday- light snow should overspread the region through the morning hours with light accumulation, primarily on grassy and elevated surfaces. We’ll firm up snow numbers over the next 24 hours. Note, additional light snow, potentially mixed with light rain, should fall Saturday night into Sunday as upper level energy scoots across the state.
Monday night/ Tuesday- after a calm open to the work week, clouds will increase Monday PM and give way to a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow across the state Monday night into Tuesday morning. As warm air advection kicks into high gear, the wintry mix will transition to a cold rain for central and southern IN. Further north, it’s a tougher call with mixing issues hanging on longer. Heavy precipitation and strong/ gusty winds can be expected Tuesday. We all turn colder Tuesday night with rain transitioning back to wind-whipped snow/ snow showers that will continue Wednesday with additional light accumulation expected.
Wednesday night/ Friday- another potential significant area of low pressure will impact the region during this particular time period with additional heavy precipitation (likely another mixed bag event) and strong winds.
The initial dump of bitterly cold, arctic, air will target the West through the 6-10 day period before making an attempt to bleed east (likely in modified fashion) during this period. Per our longer range discussions, the MJO will have the primary say in our late January pattern and we’ll have fresh long range thoughts posted prior to week’s end.
Make it a great evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/03/dinnertime-rambles/
Jan 03
Updated 01.03.24 @ 7:03a After a quiet start to the year, a much busier weather pattern is set to take foot over the span of the upcoming weekend, continuing throughout…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/03/video-blocking-matures-and-forces-stormy-pattern-underneath/
Jan 01
Updated 01.01.24 @ 6:41p
I hope you and your family are enjoying an incredible New Year’s Day! What a game we have on our hands at halftime in the Rose Bowl.
I post this in flight back to home base from ushering in the new year in the beautiful Berkshire mountains. Our regularly scheduled client video discussions will return tomorrow morning. I trust you’ve been following along with both short and long term pattern ideas daily over the past week.
The immediate term opens with quiet and unseasonably calm conditions while the end of the upcoming 10-day stretch will end much colder. The transition between start and finish will turn much more hectic around these parts as we track not one, but two storm systems between this weekend and early next week. While there’s no doubt we’ll trend colder than average by Day 10, questions abound with just how cold we go. Should we get a snowpack down, subzero is on the table.
Speaking of the aforementioned more “hectic” pattern, this kicks into gear over the weekend. While modeling likes more of a suppressed track at this distance, thinking here is that guidance will start to pick up on a more organized northern piece of energy, or surface low reflection, that will accompany the primary Gulf low. I suspect a secondary, organized, shield of precipitation into the OHV region Friday night into Saturday. Will that be enough to put our neck of the woods into a winter storm risk during this timeframe? Too early to call at this distance, but given where the PNA, EPO, and Greenland Block that will be starting to mature, I’d recommend keeping an eye on what will likely be an eventual click or two northwest as the week goes along. It’s likely either a “snow or no” type situation here with storm #1, as opposed to having to worry about rain or mixing issues.
As for storm #2 early next week, our early idea takes the primary low into the OHV before a secondary low “takes over” along the eastern seaboard. The energy transfer likely brings just enough mild air north into the central Ohio Valley to create more of a rain to snow type scenario, locally. The coldest air of the season so far will likely follow in the 10-15 day.
Speaking of the 10-15 day, the look above is an absolute textbook upper air pattern not only for cold, but continued opportunities of winter weather here as we rumble into mid-January. By this point, other long term pattern drivers, such as the NAO and AO (of course to go along with the MJO, PNA, and EPO) will be factored in to where we head not only for the 2nd half of the month, but into late winter and spring. Recent trends certainly suggest the colder options are gaining traction. Today’s European Weekly update reflects a more persistent stretch of high latitude blocking I can remember o/ the past few winters. This ups the ante for a stormy stretch into and through the heart of winter. Given the longer term NAO and MJO look, I’d suspect the colder threat (relative to normal) is on the table into spring this year.
Much more in the AM! Make it a great evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/couple-thoughts-on-this-weekend-and-next-weeks-storms-colder-trends-build-long-term/
Jan 01
Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!
The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂
Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.
Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?
Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.
Happy new year!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/
Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p
We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.
It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?
While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.
Details to follow in the week ahead!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/
Oct 21
Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a
The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.
A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.
Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.
We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.
Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/21/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/03/video-multi-faceted-significant-storm-to-close-the-work-week-colder-shift-takes-place-next-week-and-sets-the-stage-for-more-fun-and-games/