Jan 10
Snow will overspread the region during the predawn hours Saturday morning and stick around throughout the day, into Saturday night. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are expected along the I-70 corridor with perhaps the greatest intensity arriving late Saturday morning into the afternoon and early evening hours.
Here’s our “first stab” at storm total accumulation once all begins to wind down late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/10/weekend-snow-storm-2/
Jan 09
The first snowstorm of the season (and there will be many more where that came from) looms for the upcoming weekend across central Indiana- and a large portion of the Ohio Valley.
An area of low pressure will develop across the Texas panhandle Friday. This area of low pressure will scoot across the Ozark Mountains Saturday and into the Tennessee Valley Sunday. As this takes place, a shield of snow will grow in coverage and intensity across Missouri Friday afternoon, spreading northeast overnight Friday into Saturday. “Forcing” will eventually weaken late Saturday night into Sunday morning and drier air will eventually filter into the area. Before this though, a solid 12 hours of steady snow is possible for much of central Indiana Saturday.
Notes:
More later. In the meantime, may we recommend your Saturday plans include a pot of chili and roaring fire to go along with Colts football? Sounds like the perfect day to me!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/09/wednesday-notebook-confidence-increases-on-the-first-snowstorm-of-the-season/
Jan 07
We wanted to take a quick opportunity to discuss the weekend snow threat. While certainly on the table, it’s far from etched in stone. We note the models doing their usual “herky-jerky” moves 5-6 days out. At the end of the day, there’s a notable threat present, but we prefer to watch things unfold over the next few days before beginning to get too excited.
Subtle differences between the European model (image 1) and GFS (image 2) are seen in the handling of the 500mb pattern. The GFS is quicker to phase the upper energy and leads to a more robust system. The European isn’t nearly as excited and instead dampens the energy coming east. These seemingly minute differences can make all the difference when it comes to the sensible weather that may (or may not) impact your weekend plans. If the European is correct, this is a rather non-event, locally. However, should the GFS idea be correct, this will be a widespread Ohio Valley snow event that’ll require gassing up the snow plows…
The European model weakens the energy coming east needed to fuel a more substantial storm Friday into Saturday.
The GFS model bundles the upper energy and phases things- leading to a more significant wintry threat by Saturday.
Stay tuned as we’re still a few days out from having confidence needed to begin to sound the alarm. 😉
In the longer range, tonight’s data continues to head in the direction where winter will make up for lost time to close January and head on into February. Delayed, but not denied…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/07/weekend-threat-subtle-differences-make-all-the-difference/
Dec 08
Highlights:
Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week. High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday. We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday. Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.
Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark. Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week. Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday. We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/08/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/
Dec 06
Highlights:
Messy Afternoon Commute For Some…The day is starting quiet, but a fast moving arctic cold front will push through the state this afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, an expanding area of precipitation will break out late morning into the early afternoon hours. From the city and points north, most of this should fall as wet snow. South of the city, a mixture of rain and snow is expected. A quick 1″ of snow is likely for areas north of Indianapolis and as temperatures fall this afternoon and evening, a slick evening commute is possible. Allow yourself extra time.
Cold air will reinforce itself behind the front tonight and through the weekend, BUT sunshine will return! All eyes will be off to our south as a major winter storm impacts our friends across the TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians. If you’re one of our viewers from the east TN/ western NC mountains, get to the grocery store today and plan to hunker down. You’ll need the yardstick to measure this one when all is said and done Monday night…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/06/snows-on-the-lunchtime-menu-cold-but-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/
Dec 05
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/05/snow-arrives-thursday-and-looking-ahead/
Dec 05
Highlights:
Wintry Times…We’re waking up to light snow showers across central Indiana, thanks to just enough upper level energy interacting with the colder air. Coverage of snow showers will be greatest this morning. As we look forward, reinforcing cold air will blow into town Thursday evening. Ahead of this cold front, look for a band of precipitation to develop around, or just after, the lunchtime hour. For central and northern portions of the state, this will fall in the form of snow with a rain/ snow mix expected across southern sections of the state. A quick dusting to 1″ of snow is possible Thursday afternoon. Areas of lake effect snow will then develop across the northern Indiana snow belt Thursday night.
We close the week on a dry note, but all eyes will be aimed to our south on a major winter storm. The Southern Appalachians continue to look like the “sweet spot” for this storm- including snow amounts that will require a yardstick to measure by the time all is said and done early next week. Back here on the home front, we remain confident the brunt of this storm will remain south of central Indiana, but the potential is there for a bit of snow to “sneak” into the forecast Sunday- courtesy of upper level energy on the tail end of the storm. Stay tuned as we continue to review the data over the next couple days. If you’re a skier, we suggest packing the bags and heading southeast to the mountains of NC for some tremendous early season skiing early next week in the wake of the storm.
Early next week will feature calmer conditions with moderating temperatures as high pressure returns.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/05/cold-pattern-continues-with-light-snow-major-winter-storm-to-our-south-this-weekend/
Dec 03
I. Cold air has returned and will remain in place through the forecast period- reinforcing itself Thursday behind a clipper system. Enough upper level energy will be around to keep…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/03/monday-morning-rambles-6/
Dec 01
Our week-ahead outlook is focused on everything from storms to a return of unseasonably cold conditions and snow. As a strong storm system lifts north into the Great Lakes Sunday, it’ll swing a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sunday night. This will sweep the briefly milder air out of here and allow much colder air to settle back into the region through the balance of the week ahead. With the colder air in place, snow chances will return, as well. First up is a clipper system late week followed by the potential of something “more important” next weekend…
I. Steady rains will come to an end this morning and we’ll replace the soaking rain will widely scattered showers and embedded thunder later this afternoon and evening. Several dry hours can be expected for the majority of central Indiana beforehand. While the greatest threat of strong to severe storms will remain to our west in IL, we’ll keep an eye out for the potential of a gusty storm or two- especially west of the I-65 corridor later this evening.
II. Highs today will come tonight (mid-to-upper 50s) ahead of the cold front. Once the front moves through, colder air will return for the second half of the weekend. As wrap-around moisture combines with the colder air, light snow showers will develop late Sunday night into Monday morning (shown below). This won’t be a huge deal.
III. The next item of interest will come from a clipper system Thursday. This won’t only serve up another round of light snow, but also help to reinforce the unseasonably cold air. Highs will return to around freezing to close the week with lows in the 20s.
IV. That leads us to what comes next weekend. While it’s still far too early for any sort of specifics, we’ll simply say to keep a mental note in the back of your mind for the potential of a more disruptive winter event coming out from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. We’ll certainly have to fine tune things and “hone in” as we progress through the upcoming week. From this distance, prospects range from nothing more than a light snow to a “plowable” storm. Unlike this weekend’s storm, there will be a limit to how far north next weekend’s storm will be able to track…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/01/from-storms-to-snow-active-week-ahead/
Nov 25
Showers and embedded thunder will rumble across the state this evening before colder air allows precipitation to end as snow showers Monday morning. The same storm system will deliver a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/25/week-ahead-outlook/