Today and most, if not all, of Wednesday will be plain ole cold but at least precipitation free. We’ll have to watch short term guidance closely for a band of snow that will develop across northern Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. We think this snow band will sink south into at least north-central Indiana after sunrise Thursday before falling apart likely around Indianapolis. A quick 1”-2” of snow is likely across northern and north-central Indiana Thursday morning.
Our next opportunity of snow (area wide) will move in Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a much higher ratio type snow (think 20:1) than typical with the cold, arctic airmass in place. We should easily be able to accumulate 2”-4” with this event, with the potential of a couple 4”+ reports. (Snow removal clients, plowing and salting will be activated by Thursday evening).
A fresh round of bitter, arctic air flows in as we kick off the weekend. With a fresh snowpack, another round of subzero lows should be expected. Look for highs in the 10s Saturday and 20s Sunday. Wind chill values will dip to around -20° as we kick off the weekend.
Though a moderating trend will kick in in full force next week, we’ll have to watch for the potential of a freezing rain and/ or sleet event Monday night into Tuesday (arctic air is always slower to erode than usually modeled) and a true shift to a wet pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.
The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Updated 01.11.24 @ 6:12p Busy times remain in the good ole forecast office! This evening we dig into not only new long range thoughts but look deeper into the latest…
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A prolonged period of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds will develop Friday into Saturday.
Expected maximum wind gusts
What: Rain changing to snow; prolonged period of strong winds, and bitter cold
When: Friday, 1/12/24 and Saturday, 1/13/24
Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Temperatures: Middle 40s Friday falling below freezing Friday night and below zero by Sunday morning.
Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required Friday night through the weekend.
Summary: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will track through central Indiana Friday. What will likely be a SLP in the low 990s (millibars) Friday morning is liable to be in the low 970mb range by Friday night in southern Michigan. This will undoubtedly lead to a “big blow” across all of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend and that’s where we want to start with the headlines. A prolonged period of 20-30 MPH winds with gusts close to 50 MPH can be expected during this time frame.
As far as precipitation goes, rain is forecast to move into central Indiana Friday morning, falling heavy at times. If you have travel plans up north across northern Indiana, more in the way of wet snow is forecast during this time period. We’re not expecting to transition to snow until after sunset Friday (from west to east) as colder air pours in on the backside of the strengthening low. Snow showers will continue to fall into Saturday morning and with the strong and gusty northwest winds in place, lowered visibility and some slick spots can be expected across the region. Only light snow amounts are forecast, locally, to the tune of 0.50″ to 1.50″, but good luck measuring that in all of the wind. Scattered snow showers (arctic haze) will continue into Sunday as brutal arctic air oozes into the region.
Updated 01.10.23 @ 7:44a As we catch our breath from the recent active turn in the pattern, eyes are already shifting west for a new storm that will emerge over…
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Updated 01.09.24 @ 7:53a Burning the midnight oil and having plenty of coffee on hand is the only way to navigate this pattern over the course of the next week.…
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We open this evening by taking a look at the latest ensemble charts, courtesy of today’s 12z European run. While there’s simply no way of being able to guarantee the upcoming 10-day’s worth of snow in one single back yard, long suffering folks of significant winter weather across not only central Indiana, but a widespread chunk of the Ohio Valley, couldn’t ask for a more classic pattern.
First, the textbook high latitude blocking kicks off the active storm track and then bitterly cold, arctic air pours into the eastern portion of the country. Signs of this potential blocking and storminess were starting to show themselves back in the latter part of the summer. We added a couple of those analogs into building this year’s winter outlook, including the potential of blocking. By the way, it was back in January of 2019 when Indianapolis last recorded our last double digit below zero temperature (11F below zero). I still like our chances of getting into that territory between the 14th and 18th. Wind chill values will likely be much colder.
Now, back to the present. We don’t have any changes regarding tonight and predawn Tuesday. A “thump” of heavy wet snow, mixed with sleet will make for messy travel north of I-70 towards 11p to midnight, continuing into the predawn. Thankfully this will arrive when most are off the roads, but just a heads up if you have late night travel, expect slick conditions starting around 11p, or so. In fact, some of the latest guidance suggests IND may be looking at 1″/ hr snow rates during the onset of this precipitation late evening. Northern ‘burbs, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to accumulate a quick 2″ to 3″ of wet snow and then some sleet before the transition to rain predawn. Even though we’ll all be dealing with a wind-whipped cold rain by daybreak, those living from the northern ‘burbs and points north should expect slushy and slick conditions for the AM commute.
A heavy “thump” of wet snow, mixed with sleet will make things slick late tonight into predawn Tuesday.
After a brief milder surge and continued gusty winds during the daytime Tuesday, colder air will wrap back into the region allowing rain to transition to light snow tomorrow night, continuing into Wednesday morning. Additional slick spots are likely for the Wednesday morning commute, though late tonight and early Tuesday will likely be more problematic north.
Attention then shifts to our late week winter storm. While I have a hard time seeing the incredibly potent GFS solution verifying, I do like the stronger low pressure options (when compared to the flatter wave idea). – Always have to watch out for rapidly strengthening lows that like to cut up west of the mountains when you get the true arctic branch diving in with the expected trajectory currently modeled. Bottom line, at this distance we don’t see any need to deviate from the idea of rain to start, switching to a wind-whipped snow event, complete with plummeting temperatures and strong, potentially damaging, winds. I’d plan on additional travel impacts late week into the weekend.
The “big cold” follows behind this storm and then we’ll eye the opportunity for additional snow next week…
Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…
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While we’ll enjoy a quiet open to the work week, our next storm system is already organizing to our west and will deliver a heavy wind-whipped rain event, bookended by wintry precipitation Monday night into Wednesday morning.
Rainfall numbers will approach, if not exceed, the 1″ mark for most Indiana rain gauges with this system- the majority of which falls overnight Monday through the 1st half of Tuesday.
A wintry mix of wet snow and/ or sleet will likely be the predominant precipitation type along and north of I-70 at the onset of precipitation tomorrow night, but this doesn’t appear as if it’ll last long enough to create long lasting travel problems. In short, a quick transition to plain ole rain is anticipated after the onset of wintry precipitation. Safe to say, the Tuesday morning commute will be a messy one across the region.
Winds will also to around 40 MPH overnight into Tuesday morning as the area of low pressure lifts up to our west.
As colder air wraps back into the region Tuesday night, left over rain will transition to wet snow, continuing into Wednesday morning.
Just as soon as we finish with this system, attention will shift to a brewing winter storm as we close out the work week. While it’s impossible to get too specific on the all-important track of this system, it’s safe to say that this should be another potent area of low pressure, including more in the way of cold air to work with. With the arctic branch of the jet digging south, it won’t take much for this system to phase and actually be a more intense storm than its predecessor. That said, we have a long, long way to go before we can talk about where the heaviest swath of snow will set up in the Friday/ Saturday timeframe. It’ll be important to stay abreast of future forecast updates in the days ahead.
Bitterly cold, arctic air will be unleashed east through mid-January. Note the coast-to-coast arctic air taking up residence towards Day 10.
Updated 01.07.24 @ 7:32a Light snow will slowly come to an end through the morning hours and we’ll have around 24 hours, or so, to catch our breath before the…
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