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Category: Winter Outlook
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Oct 30
2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook…
Author: Bill McMillan- Founder and Owner of IndyWx.com
Date: Sunday, October 30th, 2016
2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook
We’re bullish on a colder and snowier than normal winter across central IN (and a widespread portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley, for that matter) for 2016-2017. Furthermore, model data and analogs suggest the period Thanksgiving to Christmas could be quite wintry this year. If you’re one of those that likes it cold with storms and rumors of storms through the holiday season, this could be your year.
The basis of the IndyWx.com 2016-2017 Winter Outlook
- Weak La Nina
- West-based QBO (read more about the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation here)
- PDO- does the negative trend continue?
The PDO (read more about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation here) is a bit of a wildcard moving forward. The past (2) years has featured a positive PDO, but latest data shows that we’ve slipped into a slightly negative state (-1.06 in Sept). Negative phases favor warmth, locally. Interestingly, most model data suggests a positive look this winter.
The image below shows the differences in what a warm (left) and cool (right) PDO looks like.
(Image courtesy of JISAO)
Sea surface temperature model data centered on the upcoming winter
SST CA model
NMME model
JAMSTEC model
JMA model
We’ve done an “about face” in the equatorial Pacific. Last year at this time featured one of the strongest El Ninos on record. (Remember that ridiculously warm December last year)?! This year, a snap shot of the SST anomalies (from 10.27.16) shows a vastly different look and the weak La Nina underway. We think a weak La Nina dominates the majority of the upcoming meteorological winter.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) plume shows the weak La Nina continuing through winter before rebounding over the spring.
Analogs:
We’re keying in on the following years to get an idea of what the future may hold for meteorological winter (December-February), based on the ENSO state and QBO west.
- 2013-2014 *snowiest winter on record (52.2″)
- 2008-2009
- 1995-1996 *6th snowiest winter on record (37.8″
- 1971-1972
- 1961-1962
- 1959-1960
We expect a southeast ridge to be a big player through the balance of the upcoming winter. While that will likely keep our friends in the southeast region milder and drier when compared to normal, it’ll also serve as enough resistance to keep us on our toes with an active storm track through the Ohio Valley. We’ve alluded to this since late summer and early fall, but the idea of a “big hitter” winter is very much on the table and could include a couple significant winter storms through our part of the country. Additionally, a second storm track from northwest-flow clippers will have to be monitored- particularly mid and late winter.
Despite a warm fall, we expect the evolution of the pattern to undergo a significant shift mid-November and again want to reiterate the holiday stretch could be quite “fun” this year- in stark contrast to the 2015 Christmas season.
IndyWx.com 2016-2017 Winter Forecast
- Snowfall: 35″, including first flake this fall to last flake next spring (average snowfall at IND is 25.9″)
- Temperatures: 1 degree below average for meteorological winter (December through February)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016-2017-indywx-com-winter-outlook/
Oct 02
Winter Ideas…
We continue to finalize our winter forecast, which will be posted, as always, here later this month.
As little as only a few months ago, data suggested a major La Nina for the upcoming winter season. That data has since backed off significantly. In fact, some runs suggest we’re back into a weak-ish El Nino state by spring. At the very least, we are confident on avoiding a strong La Nina this winter and lean more in the direction of a weak Nina, at best, to neutral signal. The CFSv2 is interesting, as always, with the spread in region 3.4.
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
I. Warmth in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska)
Argues for central cold this winter, spreading east with time.
II. Warmth off the eastern seaboard
Will likely serve to limit the ability for the cold to spread east early on in the season
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
Much more later this month…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-ideas/
Sep 04
New SST CA Model Weighs In On Winter…
The updated Sea Surface Temperature Constructed Analog model is in for the winter. In short, it suggests a slow start to winter gains momentum and turns much colder as mid and late winter arrive. It’s also a stormy look, locally, and would imply big-hitter potential in the Ohio Valley.
500mb pattern
*Note how the trough becomes more established over the central and east during the January through March period.
Temperature anomalies
The consistency is remarkable on the bullish cold signal for the central and east for the January-March time frame. We note high agreement, month-over-month, on the J-M time frame being significantly cold.
Precipitation anomalies
*No doubt a stormy signal through the Ohio Valley.
Time is ticking…winter will be here before we know it! Our official annual winter outlook will be out in October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/new-sst-ca-model-weighs-in-on-winter/
Feb 03
Wednesday Evening Rambles…
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