Category Archives: Winter Outlook

Mid-December “Relaxation” Coming, But Winter Set To Roar Back With Authority Around The Holidays And Beyond…

Since this cold pattern took over in mid-October, I thought we’d see a “pull back” of sorts develop at some point.  Initially, the thinking was this would come in the middle parts of November, but that never developed.  Fast forward to where we are now, and it still appears a relaxation of the cold will develop- albeit much later than originally anticipated.  Please understand this doesn’t mean there can’t be cold days or, for that matter, even wintry “mischief.”  What it does mean is that the sustained significantly colder than normal air should reverse to seasonable levels and above normal conditions for a time around mid-month.

With that said, we’re as fired up as we’ve been for what we continue to think will be a very cold winter and, at times, snowy- as outlined in our winter outlook published last month.  In fact, the latest European Weeklies in this evening suggest winter roars back with authority around Christmastime, continuing deep into the New Year period.  Analog data and other key components (some of which were outlined in our winter outlook) would back up this idea.  Taken verbatim, the new European Weeklies like the idea of “coast-to-coast” cold developing for the holidays this year.  While I’m not ready to go that far just yet (still think the mean ridge will set-up shop in a manner to keep the northwest balmy, compared to normal), I do like the idea of a cold and active period returning late December for our part of the country…

Anyone else dreaming of a white Christmas (for the 2nd year in a row)?!

Christmas/ Thanksgiving, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook

Quiet And Chilly Thanksgiving…

Quick update on the go with what will be a chilly, but dry Thanksgiving holiday. Our next storm will begin to impact the area Black Friday.

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Arctic Cold, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, snow, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos, Winter Outlook

Slushy Wet Snow Arrives Predawn…

A weak weather system will zip across the southern half of the state during the overnight into Monday morning. This will toss moisture into central Indiana towards midnight, continuing into the morning rush before scooting off to the east well before lunchtime. While this won’t be a big event, air will be just cold enough to allow the northern periphery of moisture to transition to wet snow after midnight into the predawn hours.

Areas along and just north of the I-70 corridor stand the best shot of awaking to a slushy wet snow of a dusting to around 1″.

Dry conditions quickly return during the mid to late morning hours and then we await cold air reinforcements and associated light snow showers Tuesday morning.

Winter’s off to a fast start, heh? Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Black Friday. Here’s a hint, you may want to put a snow shovel/ blower on the shopping list this year…

Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Thanksgiving, Winter Outlook

Winter 2018-2019 Notes…

As the calendar turns from July to August, we really begin to increase the amount of research into the upcoming winter season.  While still a couple months out from publishing our official Winter Outlook, we did want to touch base on a couple of items.

The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season.  As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.

  • Weak Modoki (central-based) Nino is expected this winter
  • SST configuration in the NPAC (north Pacific) is perhaps the most “intriguing” item at the moment
  • Low solar/ QBO

Somewhat of a surprise is that the majority of longer range, seasonal data is aligning for a cold, stormy eastern winter.  Included in the cold, stormy camp are the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS.  A few snap shots are included below…

JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter (December through February).
JAMSTEC Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter.
CanSIPS 500mb for meteorological winter.

The CFSv2 is siding with a warmer winter, but it appears as if the model is struggling with the coming Nino and “over-hyping” things.  Accordingly, the model results in a blow torch winter.  Again, remember, we’re leaning towards a weak, central-based event.

That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.

Just wanted to touch base briefly on our early thinking before we release our official 2018-2019 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook in October.

Canadian Model, CFSv2, European Model, JAMSTEC, snow, SST Discussion, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Outlook, Winter thoughts...