Nov 20
Quick update on the go with what will be a chilly, but dry Thanksgiving holiday. Our next storm will begin to impact the area Black Friday.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-and-chilly-thanksgiving/
Nov 18
A weak weather system will zip across the southern half of the state during the overnight into Monday morning. This will toss moisture into central Indiana towards midnight, continuing into the morning rush before scooting off to the east well before lunchtime. While this won’t be a big event, air will be just cold enough to allow the northern periphery of moisture to transition to wet snow after midnight into the predawn hours.
Areas along and just north of the I-70 corridor stand the best shot of awaking to a slushy wet snow of a dusting to around 1″.
Dry conditions quickly return during the mid to late morning hours and then we await cold air reinforcements and associated light snow showers Tuesday morning.
Winter’s off to a fast start, heh? Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Black Friday. Here’s a hint, you may want to put a snow shovel/ blower on the shopping list this year…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/slushy-wet-snow-arrives-predawn/
Aug 15
As the calendar turns from July to August, we really begin to increase the amount of research into the upcoming winter season. While still a couple months out from publishing our official Winter Outlook, we did want to touch base on a couple of items.
The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season. As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.
Somewhat of a surprise is that the majority of longer range, seasonal data is aligning for a cold, stormy eastern winter. Included in the cold, stormy camp are the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS. A few snap shots are included below…
JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter (December through February).
JAMSTEC Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter.
CanSIPS 500mb for meteorological winter.
The CFSv2 is siding with a warmer winter, but it appears as if the model is struggling with the coming Nino and “over-hyping” things. Accordingly, the model results in a blow torch winter. Again, remember, we’re leaning towards a weak, central-based event.
That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.
Just wanted to touch base briefly on our early thinking before we release our official 2018-2019 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook in October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-2018-2019-notes/
Nov 29
I had an opportunity to chat with the fine folks with BAM today about the upcoming “blockbuster” pattern, along with other things! Enjoy!
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-fun-times-with-the-bam-crew/
Nov 16
Thanksgiving is only a week away (where on earth does time go?!) and more and more folks are asking what we think winter will hold for central Indiana. In case you missed it earlier this fall, here’s our official Winter Outlook.
We’re continuing to dig in and monitor new data that’s streaming into the office, as well as ocean profiles. With that said, we wanted to share some of our findings with you this morning with respect to how various ocean regions can impact our weather this winter.
We’re noticing significant changes, particularly in the north Pacific, with the famous “warm blob” emerging (image 1). This is a big factor that aided in persistent cold; wintry weather during the ’13-’14 winter (images 2-3). Notice the difference from last year, too (image 4). This isn’t a full blown cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) yet, but trending in that direction and “ups the ante” for cold, wintry conditions, locally this year.
What makes seasonal forecasting so challenging (and fun :-)) are the multiple features that can impact a forecast. We’ve talked about the importance of ENSO (various types of Nino and Nina events) in past updates, as well as low solar and QBO. All of these moving parts and pieces are coming together in a manner that seems to be favoring more of a cold, wintry regime, locally, this year. Is that us saying another blockbuster 2013-2014 winter awaits? Absolutely not (there are other differences noted above with the SST configuration). However, it is suggesting that this winter will be absolutely nothing like the past couple…
Might want to think about getting the snow blower tuned up!
More later today on the short-term. Make it a great Thursday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/digging-deeper-as-winter-nears/