Category: Winter Outlook

Dec 14

“The Trend Is Your Friend:” Long Range Discussion Into Mid-January…

Updated 12.14.23 @ 7:22a

Right out of the gate, let’s look at the pattern drivers over the course of the next couple of weeks. By now, you know this starts with the MJO. One has to love the alignment of at least quickly moving out of the current warm phases and into the colder phases. By the 28th, both the GFS and European show us emerging into those colder phases.

The thought here is that we sneak into Phase 8 prior to month’s end and then roll into Phase 1 as we get into early January. The respective temperature composites are below.

MJO: Phase 8 December
MJO: Phase 1 January

That leads us to the PNA and EPO. (Remember, we’ll put more weight into the influence the NAO and AO can have on the regime after mid-January).

The PNA, or Pacific North American pattern, remains in a favorable state for eastern cold.

“Positive” PNA composite pattern

However, the EPO doesn’t want to play nice and will put pressure on any sort of sustained, meaningful cold getting involved over the next 10 days- that is until the MJO gets into the cold phases.

The JMA Weeklies show the progression of the upper pattern best, in my opinion, from any of the long range data that’s currently available for the late December-1st half of January timeframe.

Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4

We’ve had several new subscribers of IndyWx.com All-Access over the past couple of weeks so I wanted to take time to drop a direct link to our annual Winter Outlook. As we get set to put a bow on the first month of meteorological winter, there’s no change to our ongoing idea of the winter as a whole here.

I originally thought the shift to a colder pattern would take shape around 12/20 (give or take a couple of days). While that idea appears to be too aggressive, there’s certainly no backing away from the colder pattern progression as a whole, at least from my perspective. The expectation is that we do, indeed, get into the colder phases of the MJO and that sets off the larger global signal that will likely shift the EPO into a colder phase. It’s interesting that the European Weeklies show this exact thing taking shape down the road (once past 1/1).

While we’re not of the thought this evolves into anything frigid (some sort of overwhelming arctic air mass, for example), we do want to double down on the idea of a slightly colder than normal regime taking hold as we get into the new year. The thought here is that this slightly colder than normal pattern will also have staying power through a good chunk of January, given where I believe the MJO will spend the majority of time. What’s also of interest is the energized southern stream beginning to show itself (going to be one heck of a storm roaring out of the Gulf this weekend). I’d imagine we’re only just beginning to see the active pattern take hold and it won’t take much to get a storm or two to try and phase with northern stream energy if we see the evolution take hold that I envision down the road. At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern.

We’ll have more detailed thoughts on the weekend and next week’s pattern in our updated Client video that will be posted a bit later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-trend-is-your-friend-long-range-discussion-into-mid-january/

Oct 01

’23 – ’24 Winter Outlook: Changing of the Guards…

Published 10.01.23 @ 7a

We do it every year around this time and while some years have certainly been tougher than others, there’s always something special about this time on the calendar. Perhaps it’s the cooler days, the longer nights, the return of football season, or better yet the thoughts (at least to this winter lover) of the first flakes of the season that loom in the not too distant future. However you view this time of year, I hope you can find a way to enjoy the upcoming winter season.

Like most years, there will likely be a little something for everyone, and before diving in too far, we always like to remind folks that long range forecasting is always a challenge, albeit a welcome one at that. While there’s simply no way to be certain about specifics 2-5 months in advance, more times than not, we can at least provide an idea of the overall upper pattern that should generate predominant precipitation and temperature regimes in the colder months ahead.

Without further ado, lets dive in…

We’re in uncharted territory, at least compared to the past (3) years. After a rare triple dip Nina event, a strong El Nino is here and anticipated to stick around, at least in a moderate fashion, through the winter.

It’s important to note that not one Nino event is identical to another. What’s of particular interest with this year’s event is that a lot of the longer range model guidance begins to weaken the Nino as we get into the middle and latter part of the winter, while migrating the warmest anomalies west (more into the central region: region 3 and region 3.4). By the way, here’s an interesting article that sheds more light on the various regions and indices.

Ultimately, that is the golden ticket to what this winter becomes in my opinion. While far from etched in stone, it’s my belief that when you have a Nino event coming off it’s peak during the winter, there’s a better opportunity to get the warmest anomalies more into the central regions as the weakening takes place. Should this happen then we’re talking about increasing prospects of cold and snow. Meanwhile, if the warmest SST anomalies remain tucked into 1+2, it’ll likely be another ugly winter for snow and cold lovers.

On that note, the past 5 winters have only produced an average 14.1″ of snow in Indianapolis. Only ’20-’21 was close to average at 22.2″. To add salt to the wound, if you take out the record snowiest ’13-’14 (whopping 52.2″), our 10 year snow average is 12.6″.

Lets take a look at some of the various modeling for the upcoming meteorological winter (December through February).

JMA Seasonal

European Seasonal

Canadian Seasonal

The seasonal guidance shown above is the most aggressive, collectively, I can recall for quite some time from this distance. Note each of the models above indicate the opportunity for blocking with the active southern stream underneath that we come to expect in an El Nino.

We built our analog set (first shared with Clients on 9/3) with the baseline including 1st year moderate to strong Ninos.

  • 1957-1958
  • 1972-1973
  • 1991-1992
  • 2002-2003
  • 2009-2010
  • 1982-1983
  • 2015-2016

In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.

A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:

Temperatures

Precipitation

What does this all mean to me: Central Indiana

Last year we thought the winter would get off to a much quicker, harsher start than years past. While November didn’t disappoint from a snowfall perspective (2.8″ compared to an average of 0.8″), it was still a slightly warmer than normal month. The cold came in December, but it was a “dry” cold with below normal snowfall (1.6″ compared to an average of 6.4″).

The more I look at trends for this winter, the more I like the idea of increased high latitude blocking compared to years past along with the evolving, more central based Nino event. With that said, recent trends have me a bit hesitant to go “all in” on the potential of this winter. We’ll lean slightly warmer than normal with slightly below normal snowfall for the winter as a whole. That said, local perception will be interesting as I envision a snowier winter compared to the past couple years. While the primary storm track should be suppressed this year with below normal precipitation, thanks to the El Nino, that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a snowless winter.

The numbers please…

Temperatures: December through February averaging 0.5° to 1° above normal as a whole

Precipitation: Below normal precipitation is expected through the 3 month winter period (75% of normal is our call) with slightly below normal snowfall. We forecast 20″ of snow (1st flake to last flake).

Whatever the winter provides, I hope you and your family enjoy and stay safe!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/23-24-winter-outlook-changing-of-the-guards/

Sep 03

Initial Analog Set For Winter ’23 – ’24…

Updated 09.03.23 @ 9:22a

The extended stretch of quiet weather has given us time to finalize the initial set of analogs we’ll lean in on for the upcoming winter. Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be published Friday, October 27th.

While long range seasonal models differ on the placement of warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we’re refraining from going “all-in” on a modoki Nino event as of now. This is something that no doubt will have our attention as we go through the course of the next several weeks. It’ll be interesting to watch the trends. The modoki, or central based, warm event would go a long way in upping the ante for a colder, stormier winter, locally. This is something that’s possible but we still have more questions than answers with how this evolves.

SST configuration as of September 1, 2023:

Our initial set of analogs includes the following years:

  • 1957-1958
  • 1972-1973
  • 1991-1992
  • 2002-2003
  • 2009-2010
  • 1982-1983
  • 2015-2016

We’re looking at 1st year Nino events of moderate to strong intensity. (Most modeling peaks this event in the +1.5 to +2 range in Nino region 3.4). In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus as of now centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.

A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:

Temperature

Precipitation

There’s a lot more that goes into our seasonal outlooks than simply taking a blend of analogs, but this will serve as a nice starting point from this distance. It’ll be very interesting to watch the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest SSTs currently “tucked in” to Nino regions 1+2 and 3 into potentially a more central, or region 3.4 event.

Make it a great Labor Day weekend and know we’ll have much more to come in the weeks ahead on our winter ’23 – ’24 thoughts…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/initial-analog-set-for-winter-23-24/

Nov 01

VIDEO: Recapping The 2022-2023 Winter Outlook…

Updated 11.01.22 @ 6a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-recapping-the-2022-2023-winter-outlook/

Oct 28

IndyWx.com ’22 – ’23 Winter Outlook…

Updated 10.28.22 @ 6a

Well here we are again, time for another stab at what the exciting winter months will provide. Time flies when you’re having fun; it’s incredibly hard to believe this will be our 13th winter outlook issued at IndyWx.com! Some of those years have been a lot more accurate than others, but so it goes with seasonal forecasts. One thing to take away from this report: no one winter (or any season, for that matter) is identical to another.

When we look at the current SST (sea surface temperature) configuration, the first thing that likely jumps out is all of that cool water in the equatorial Pacific. We’re heading for our 3rd consecutive La Nina winter, which is quite a rarity. In fact, we have to go all the way back to the winter of ’00 – ’01 and then ’75 – ’76 to find other triple dip Nina events. To no surprise, these are the (2) leading analog years.

But it’s not just the cool anomalies in the Pacific that have our attention, we note the warmer anomalies in the northeast Pacific, the northwest Atlantic, and across the northwest Pacific.

Research into these particular areas with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures tend to favor the following for winter:

I. Northwest Pacific SST state: Colder than normal from the Northwest, northern Plains, and into the western Great Lakes. Warmer than normal along the eastern seaboard.

II. Northeast Pacific SST state: Colder than normal across the Northwest, Northern Plains, and into the western Great Lakes/ upper Mid West.

III. Northwest Atlantic SST state: Warmer than normal across New England, cooler than normal ribbon from the upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast.

When we blend the 2 primary analog years, this is what the winter (December through February) as a whole looks like:

Temperatures

Precipitation

We’ll then add in the additional research from the “focal” SST areas noted above when building our finished product.

“Traditional” (always hesitant to use that word when it comes to looking at an upcoming season) La Ninas favor the following:

Remember, we’re in rare territory with this being a 3rd consecutive Nina. We’re expected to remain in a Nina state through the winter and upcoming spring before potentially flipping the page and moving into an El Nino next summer or fall.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation will also have an important say into what the upcoming winter holds. Last year the cold November turned into a blow torch of a December (thanks to the MJO rolling into the warmer phases for December).

There are reasons to believe the sea surface temperature configuration over the Pacific will nudge the MJO into more favorable phases for cold mid-late Nov and Dec this year. Add in the fact that this is a rare triple dip Nina, and the ante is upped that this year will feature a much faster start to winter for a change. If that’s, indeed, the case, winter enthusiasts should enjoy every bit of the cold and potentially wintry “fun” that would ensue. The reason? The same drivers that should promote the early start to winter will likely have a say in pulling the ‘mean’ trough back into the west with more tendency for eastern ridging and associated warmer than normal temperatures as we move through January and into February.

Finally, there are additional “wild cards” that are much more difficult to predict more than 2-3 weeks out and those are the AO and NAO. These teleconnections have a much greater influence on our pattern by mid and late winter, but are more of a “now cast.”

What does this all mean to me: Central Indiana

Overall, we think the winter will get off to a much quicker, harsher start than years past. In particular, the period from Thanksgiving to New Year’s should run colder than normal and one could easily build a case that we will also be looking at above the normal snowfall during the period (average being 7.1″ during the aforementioned period).

As we get into January, the pattern drivers will likely begin to transition through the month that results in a milder pattern engulfing much of the east while the colder regime shifts north and west. An expected active storm track is on tap for mid and late winter, locally, favoring above average precipitation. With an expected milder flow and more transitional cold during this time, it’s not to say we would be done with the wintry precipitation, but it’ll likely start to become increasingly difficult for “meaningful” precipitation makers to have cold readily available.

Temperatures: After the cold start to winter, warmer times should win out mid and late winter. We forecast December through February, as a whole, to run 1° above normal.

Precipitation: Above normal precipitation is expected through the 3 month winter period (125% of normal is our call) with slightly below normal snowfall. While the late November through early January period will likely have us ahead of times in the snowfall department by early ’23, the idea here is that the majority of the rest of winter will feature little in the way of significant snowfall. Our call is 20″ on the year (compared to an average of 25.5″).

Whatever the winter provides, I hope you and your family enjoy and stay safe!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/indywx-com-22-23-winter-outlook/