Category: Windy
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Drizzle, Fog, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
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February 10, 2017
Happy Friday, friends. We’re still cold this morning, but a look at the change in temperatures compared to 24 hours ago shows the milder trend that will be with us through the upcoming weekend. Highs today will reach the upper 40s and 55-60 Saturday.
Winds will turn strong and gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, noted by the tightly packed isobars (lines of equal pressure) along with considerable mid and high level clouds.
Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday and we may also have to deal with periods of fog, as well. Showers and drizzle will lift into town as the day progresses, especially by afternoon and evening.
We don’t expect heavy rain this weekend. In fact, model data continues to really back off on expected totals. The general consensus is between 0.15″ and 0.25″ across central Indiana.
After a mild Saturday, cooler (but not cold) air will ooze into the Ohio Valley Sunday.
Resurgent cold air will blow into town during the middle and latter portions of the upcoming work week. Highs will return to the 30s with overnight lows in the lower 20s. We’ll likely add scattered snow showers into the mix as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/10/friday-morning-notebook-warmer-times-this-weekend/
Highlights:
- Frigid Thursday
- Milder, but wet this weekend
- Turning colder next week
Bundle Up…Temperatures are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago with most waking up to the teens. Throw in a strong and gusty NW wind and the ‘chill factor has fallen to as low as zero for many neighborhoods this morning. Thankfully, sunshine should be with us this afternoon.
Our wind flow will shift around to the southwest and usher in a milder brand of air by Friday afternoon. Eventually, that flow will also be an increasingly moist one, as well, and showers will develop Saturday, continuing into Sunday. We expect the cold front to slip through the state Sunday night and allow colder air to return.
Questions abound early-mid next week. Whether or not we can get a piece of energy to dig in and create wintry “fun and games” is yet to be determined. Modeling is going back and forth on that idea, versus, multiple, weaker waves capable of producing scattered snow showers in the colder air mass. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/09/bitter-feel-today/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/06/video-storms-develop-tonight-accumulating-snow-wednesday/
Highlights:
- Lots of sunshine for Super Bowl Sunday
- Rain and storms early week
- Mid week snow
Beautiful Super Bowl Sunday; Changes Await…We suggest taking your pregame Super Bowl parties outside today to enjoy what’ll be a rare sunny day! Temperatures will also be milder today, topping out in the upper 40s.
Unfortunately, the sunny skies won’t last as clouds increase Monday morning and showers move in by afternoon. As surface low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes, heavier rains and embedded thunderstorms will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning. A couple of these storms could become strong to severe, and include strong and damaging winds and hail. Colder air will pour into Indiana on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night behind the frontal passage.
Our attention will then shift to a colder regime for mid week. We have to iron out the details, but forecast models suggest an area of low pressure will scoot across the central Plains to the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. This will spread moisture north into the colder air mass and the result may be a swath of accumulating snow north of the low’s track, including central Indiana. We’ll be left with very cold air to wrap up the work week.
Next weekend, the “tug of war” regime will continue. Southwest winds will usher in milder conditions Saturday with showers.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/05/nice-today-busy-weather-week-ahead/
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Filed under 10-day, Arctic Cold, European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
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February 3, 2017
With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start. As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet. The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/03/february-tug-of-war/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Windy
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February 3, 2017
1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).
2.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region. A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday. Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday. Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.
3.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question. Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).
4.) Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.
5.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves. Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts. However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas. In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears. Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/03/friday-morning-rambles-looking-ahead/
Highlights:
- Windy Tuesday
- Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
- Accumulating weekend snow?
Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north. Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times. Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s. Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.
We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.
As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning. We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week. What’s new this winter? A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/31/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/
Highlights:
- Wintry weekend
- More widespread snow Sunday
- Reinforcing cold next week
Scattered Snow Showers Turns To Steadier Snow Sunday…Upper level energy will continue to track across the region this weekend, setting off periods of snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (case in point this evening). The strongest upper level energy will pass Sunday evening and the result should be a period of more widespread snow Sunday- especially in the afternoon and evening. A light accumulation (1″-2″ potential) is possible.
The new work week will begin with early flurries Monday and then we’ll kick in a strong and gusty southwest wind Monday night, continuing into Tuesday. We’ll turn milder briefly Tuesday, but strong winds will remain. We’ll continue to monitor the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period as some modeling wants to deliver a round of light snow with the reinforcing chill. We’ll give it another round of model runs, but we may need to hit snow a little harder in the Tuesday night period.
Another disturbance will race through the region Thursday with snow showers and then we’ll eye the potential of a stronger system next weekend…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/27/wintry-weekend-accumulating-snow-sunday/
Highlights:
- Prolonged period of scattered snow showers
- Much colder and windy
- Winter returns
Scattered Snow Showers; Steadier Snow Sunday? Let’s cut right to the point: The January “thaw” is over. Yes, it was nice while it lasted, but we all knew it couldn’t continue (right?)! 😉
A much colder brand of air will be with us as we close the work week and head into the weekend. Additionally, upper level energy will keep periods of snow showers in our forecast. A more vigorous piece of upper level energy will push southeast to close the weekend and this should create more widespread snow showers. We’ll “enjoy” a colder and blustery weekend.
As the dawn of a new work week arrives, the weather will slowly improve. Colder than normal conditions will remain, but we’ll return to dry conditions Monday.
Our next system will pass Tuesday with gusty winds and colder air for mid week, complete with a return of snow showers.
Looking for potential of “more significant” snow? That may loom just past the current forecast period…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/25/snow-returns-to-the-forecast/
Your complete weekly discussion can be found in the post below from last night, but here’s a recap of our current 7-day:
Showers will expand in overall coverage as we progress through the late morning hours, but shouldn’t amount to much (0.10″ for a few neighborhoods). We return to a drier theme this afternoon.
10a forecast radar
11a forecast radar
A mild and windy afternoon is ahead, including gusts close to 40 MPH and highs in the lower-middle 50s.
Colder air will return tonight and remain in place through the second half of the work week, including the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will grow cold enough Thursday morning for scattered snow showers.
Low-mid 30s Thursday morning
Upper level energy will keep scattered snow showers going late week and on into the weekend. Models can struggle on timing and specifics of the pieces of energy and we’ll keep an eye on things into the weekend. Potential is present for a more “robust” clipper Sunday that could yield better coverage of steady snow showers.
Longer term, the GFS ensemble continues to show the cold growing deeper and stronger for the region as we progress into early February. Winter is far from over.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/25/wednesday-morning-weather-brief/
