Category: Windy

Dec 19

Mild Now, But The Deep Freeze Awaits; Christmas Snow?

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably mild for now
  • Dry midweek
  • Turning colder and wintry as Christmas approaches

Bottle It Up…By this time next week, most will want to go back in time to the unseasonably pleasant December weather we’re currently experiencing.  If you’re one of these individuals, it’s too bad you just can’t bottle it up for the frigid times that loom.

The short-term period will continue to be dominated by relatively quiet conditions given the time of year.  A storm system will pass to our south Wednesday and provide the Tennessee Valley a good soaking.  We’ll turn cooler for midweek, but remain well above seasonal averages.

A cold front will move towards the region as we wrap up the work week.  This will deliver showers Friday into Saturday before colder air results in a potential transition to wet snow Saturday.  Thereafter, details remain sketchy (at best), but overall confidence is increasing in at least some snow falling during the Christmas Eve – Christmas morning period.

Models are struggling with a second piece of energy that will blow through prior to the big cold blast next week.  Typical model biases are showing themselves this morning (more progressive GFS versus the more amplified European and Canadian).  The best idea at this point is to go with a blend and trend towards a period of snow developing during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Eve, but please understand we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days.  The other item to consider is that it won’t take much upper energy at all to ring out any available moisture as the arctic intrusion arrives.

Regardless of whether we enjoy Christmas snow or not, the period next week into early parts of 2018 looks particularly cold (at times bitterly so) with additional winter weather opportunities.  Snow removal companies might want to begin stocking up on the coffee!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/19/mild-now-but-the-deep-freeze-awaits-christmas-snow/

Dec 17

Mild And Relatively Quiet Week Before Cold Changes For Christmas…

Highlights:

  • Light showers later today
  • Mostly quiet weather week awaits
  • Much colder as Christmas nears

Sunday Showers…A weak weather system is approaching the state as we type this forecast update.  That system will deliver light showers through the afternoon hours, but this won’t be a major weather event by any stretch of the imagination- more of a nuisance than anything.

Our next “event” will come Tuesday night in the form of a dry frontal passage.  This will trend us cooler Wednesday, but still above seasonal norms.  Quiet times will persist with sunshine through midweek, allowing last minute shoppers (no finger pointing here :-)) to at least not have any weather worries as they finish checking off the list!

A more significant cold front will approach as we close the work week.  This will provide showers and gusty winds, followed by a colder feel late in the day.

Looking ahead towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, confidence continues to remain high on a much colder pattern taking hold.  However, it’s purely speculative at this point whether we’ll be enjoying “white” for the big day.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/17/mild-and-relatively-quiet-week-before-cold-changes-for-christmas/

Dec 15

Unseasonably Pleasant Open To The Weekend…

Highlights:

  • “Can’t beat it” weather for mid-December
  • Raw second half of the weekend
  • Changes loom

Great Open To The Weekend…High pressure and a relatively mild southwest flow will help boost temperatures to near 50° Saturday afternoon, complete with plentiful sunshine.  We will note an increasingly gusty southwest breeze late in the day.

The second half of the weekend will feature an increasingly wet period, along with a “raw” feel.  Rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive, but rain gear will be required on the way out to church Sunday morning.

High pressure will quickly build back in thereafter and remain in control of our work week weather.  A nice stretch of pleasant conditions (by mid-December standards) will prevail, including plentiful sunshine.  Enjoy it as big changes loom.

The all-important Christmas-New Years period is growing ever closer and data continues to suggest we should gear up for busy times in the forecast office.  An active pattern looms, including one that will trend progressively colder.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/15/unseasonably-pleasant-open-to-the-weekend/

Dec 13

Wednesday Evening Rambles…Cold Reinforcements Tonight; Weekend Moderation…

I.  A look at the current snowpack shows the northwest flow nicely, and another storm is just missing central Indiana to the north and northeast this evening (not included in this morning’s snowpack update).  The southern Appalachians have also been capitalizing in this northwest flow pattern, not to mention the southern stream event that dumped hefty snows on the Deep South.

II.  While the sticking snows will miss us this go around, scattered snow showers will impact central IN overnight into early Thursday morning.  There’s also still the potential of a skinny lake effect snow band to impact a narrow portion of western and north-central IN early Thursday.

III.  Reinforcing cold air will plunge south Thursday.  Highs will remain below freezing along with wind chill values in the 10s most of the day.

IV: A milder southwesterly air flow will result in slightly “warmer” temperatures this weekend (mid 40s for highs Saturday) before showers arrive to close the weekend.  Despite the slight relaxation of the cold, this will come with a gusty breeze over the weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/13/wednesday-evening-rambles-cold-reinforcements-tonight-weekend-moderation/

Dec 13

Weekend Moderation…

Highlights:

  • Northern IN snow
  • Weekend moderation
  • Showers early next week

Majority Of Snow To Our North, Northeast…A fast moving northwest flow will continue to zip upper air disturbances across the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeast.  As has been the case for the past week, central IN will remain too far south to benefit in the snow department from these systems.  A light shower is possible this afternoon with gusty winds followed by a couple of light snow showers this evening as the cold returns.  If your travels take you to north-central IN or into Ohio, you’ll be more likely to encounter slick roads.

A skinny lake effect snow band may set up shop overnight into early Thursday.  Unlike the past event, this would favor west-central parts of the state.

We’ll wrap up the work week on a mostly dry note and that theme will continue as we open the weekend.  A milder southwest push of air will send temperatures to slightly above average levels this weekend and we’ll introduce showers into our forecast early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/13/weekend-moderation/

Dec 11

VIDEO: Attention Required Tonight; Additional Upper Energy Poses A Challenge This Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/11/video-attention-required-tonight-additional-upper-energy-poses-a-challenge-this-week/

Dec 11

Another Cold Week; Snow Showers Develop Overnight…

Highlights:

  • Snow showers develop overnight
  • Another arctic shot
  • Milder for the weekend

Snow Showers Develop Overnight…Another fast moving upper air disturbance is on the move southeast this morning and will result in a mostly cloudy and blustery open to the work week. As cold air advection (CAA) kicks in overnight and Tuesday, snow showers will develop across the region.  We’ll also note the potential of a more intense and persistent lake effect band setting up across east-central Indiana (where a couple inches will accumulate Tuesday).  If your travels take you into eastern and northeastern portions of the state Tuesday, prepare for sudden drops in visibility and slick travel.

Additional upper level energy will scoot through here during the middle part of the work week and while this will help to reinforce the cold, it’ll also provide scattered snow showers.

We’ll switch gears and get into a briefly milder southwesterly air flow over the upcoming weekend.  Strong and gusty southwest winds will aid in giving a boost to the mercury, but showers will make for a damp end to the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting (for most) to 2″ across east-central Indiana
  • Rainfall: 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/11/another-cold-week-snow-showers-develop-overnight/

Dec 07

Fast Moving Northwest Flow…

Highlights:

  • Cold times
  • First accumulating snow of the season
  • Additional disturbances to monitor next week

Snow Arrives Late Friday Night And Early Saturday…75% of our Thursday featured overcast skies and periodic flurries and light snow.  Thankfully, a bit of drier air is working in to provide a brighter close to the day.  A cold night is on deck as many fall into the teens.

A fast moving upper air disturbance will drop southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will help spread a swath of snow across central Indiana overnight Friday into the wee morning hours Saturday.  Additionally, we’ll have to monitor the potential of enhanced lake effect bands across central and east-central portions of the state Saturday morning into the early afternoon.  In general, we expect 1″ to 2″ of snow to accumulate across central Indiana, but note there may be a couple of heavier totals where lake effect bands set up.

Another fast-paced disturbance will blow into town Monday night into Tuesday, followed by another Wednesday night into Thursday.  Cold weather will dominate through the period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/07/fast-moving-northwest-flow/

Dec 06

VIDEO: First Stab At Weekend Snowfall Totals; Busy Winter Pattern Is Only Just Beginning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/06/video-first-stab-at-weekend-snowfall-totals-busy-winter-pattern-is-only-just-beginning/

Dec 05

Cold Pattern Has Arrived; Accumulating Snow Friday Night-Saturday?

Highlights:

  • Cold air settles in
  • 1st accumulating snow of the season
  • Active northwest flow pattern remains

Unseasonably Cold…Northwest winds helped usher in a much colder air mass Tuesday behind an early morning frontal passage.  While a couple of flurries are possible Wednesday, we’re mostly dry through the midweek stretch.  We’ll notice resurgent cold and wind Wednesday night into Thursday.  Heavy winter gear will be warranted.

Eyes will then turn to an approaching clipper system in what’s just the beginning of a busy northwest flow regime.  We expect clouds to increase Friday evening and snow to develop overnight, continuing into the day Saturday.  Given the dynamics in play, we still circle this period for the first accumulating snow event of the season.  Sure enough, latest model data is also trending snowier during this timeframe.  Another snow event looms late Monday into Tuesday with fresh arctic air drilling south early next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/05/cold-pattern-has-arrived-accumulating-snow-friday-night-saturday/

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