Jan 03
Just wanted to touch on a couple of bullet points for the upcoming week before a more extensive forecast update a bit later this afternoon. A period of severe winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stretch-of-severe-winter-weather-next-week/
Jan 01
Tonight’s video update covers the upcoming 7-day period. A very brief shot of mild air will result in a change from early morning freezing rain Saturday to an all rain event before switching back to light snow Sunday as colder air moves in. This is only the beginning of a very cold week ahead, complete with the chance of accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday.
Forecast radar suggests a brief period of freezing rain can be expected during the wee morning hours Saturday.
Ensemble data shows temperatures more than 20 degrees below normal by mid week as a brutal shot of arctic air invades the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wintry-mix-to-rain-saturday-snow-and-bitter-air-next-week/
Dec 24
In what’s been an agonizing 6-7 days it’s only fitting that this will come down to the very end. Model performance has been poor, at best, concerning our Christmas Eve storm and given many forecasters a gray hair or two (yours truly included).
We’re going to lay out our best thinking below, but I want to be very clear when I say that we’re in a “now cast” mode for the rest of the day. It’ll be particularly important to have a means of gathering the latest weather information if you have travel plans later today.
Overnight model data shifted the track of a developing surface low east. After looking over all of the available data, we now have converged on a surface low track that moves northeast from west Tennessee into northwest Ohio. The surface low will strengthen as it moves northeast, helping wrap cold air into the system and change rain to a wet snow across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.
The tricky part comes into play when we get into the details. Banding features and associated precipitation rates will be key in determining when local communities see a transition to wet snow and ultimately how much accumulates. This won’t be a “uniform” type accumulation event. Dynamics with this system are impressive, despite only marginally cold air. If we get into a situation where heavier banding develops it won’t take long to cool the entire column of air and result in localized moderate to heavy snow.
On the flip side, surface temperatures are mild after a day yesterday into the middle 50s. Add in the fact stated above of only marginally cold air available and precipitation intensity will be key. If precipitation isn’t heavy enough, it’ll be tough for much snow to fall, yet alone accumulate.
Bottom Line:
As stated above, this is a now cast scenario through the rest of your Christmas Eve. Given all of the data we’ve looked at, this is how we see things playing out this evening:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/detailed-christmas-eve-breakdown/
Dec 22
|
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
 |
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
30/ 47 |
40/ 50 |
32/ 40 |
29/ 39 |
32/ 48 |
25/ 37 |
21/ 31 |
Highlights:
Rain Moves In…After a day of sunshine on Sunday (FINALLY), we’re back to overcast conditions to open the special Christmas week. Those clouds will deliver showers later this afternoon into the evening hours. Showers will also be with us at times Tuesday, but strong south winds will help create a mild feel.
Rain To Snow Christmas Eve…Low pressure will lift northeast through central Tennessee and into west-central Ohio Christmas Eve. On this track, what will start out as a wet and rainy Christmas Eve will likely transition to snowy and white as we roll into the evening hours.
I want to stress that this is still a tough forecast as cold air will be very marginal, but the dynamics are impressive with this storm system and we’re also likely to see some “dynamic cooling” across a portion of central Indiana Wednesday evening. Snowfall amounts certainly won’t be “uniform,” but our idea as of now places widespread dusting to 1″ type amounts throughout central Indiana, with a localized band of heavier 1″-3″ totals. Exactly where does this band of snow set up? Too early to tell as of now. We hope to have better model consensus later tonight/ early Tuesday and have our snowfall map posted then. Stay tuned.
Additionally, winds will also be strong and gusty Christmas Eve- gusts in excess of 30 MPH will be possible and this will lead to tough visibilities in spots if traveling. We suggest getting travel done early Wednesday.
Colder; Eyeing The Weekend…We’ll turn significantly colder across the region by the weekend and some model data suggests a storm system will attack this fresh cold air to create lots of “wintry fun” over the weekend. Let’s get through Christmas Eve before we dive too much into the potential of what’s ahead for the weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-weather-for-christmas-week/
Dec 20
|
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
28/ 35 |
27/ 40 |
29/ 47 |
43/ 50 |
29/ 43 |
25/ 35 |
29/ 41 |
Highlights:
Light Snow Downstate; Quiet Weekend…It doesn’t take much snow to make a mess of things on area roadways and sure enough that’s the case this morning as light snow has created slick spots on I-65 across southern portions of the state. Travel safely and slow down if you’re heading south. All-in-all, the weekend will be a quiet one with temperatures very close to where they should be for this time of year. We’re keeping our fingers crossed for a few looks at the sun for the second half of the weekend.
Big Storm Brewing; Still Questions Around Specifics…Let’s cut right to the chase…. While confidence is increasing on some wind-whipped snow Christmas Eve, there are still many more questions than answers in regards to precisely when and where the accumulating snow sets up across the state.
We’ll cloud things up Monday and introduce some light rain late in the day with periods of rain and mild temperatures Tuesday. It’s as the storm begins to deepen and head north that we should get in on more of a wintry aspect, including strong and gusty winds Christmas Eve (continues to look like a bumpy ride for Santa this year) with falling temperatures after a midnight high. Winds may gust in excess of 40-50 MPH Christmas Eve. Needless to say, it won’t take much snow to make a mess of travel with those type winds. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune over the weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/keeping-a-close-eye-on-christmas-eve/