Category: Windy

Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…

Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 7.38.21 AMHighlights:

  • Strong winds and flood threat continues
  • Weak mid week system
  • Much colder to open the New Year

Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN!  Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning.  Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.

Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

StrongWindsTemperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s.  It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.

Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.

We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning.  The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected.  MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

WednesdayForecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter.  Note the W NA ridging developing.  Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears.  Think this is the year without a winter?  Better think again, my friends.

Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

MidJan2016

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What Season Is This? Active Pattern Develops…

Screen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.31.39 AMHighlights:

  • AM fog gives way to sunshine
  • Another fast moving disturbance moves through Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Major warmth
  • Stormy finish

A quick glance at the updated 7-day shows two things, a lack of cold air and a rather active time of things.  In the near term, it remains a relatively quiet period.  We’ll deal with morning fog in spots this morning (especially north-central IN) and another fast moving disturbance in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.

The big story as we move into the back half of the week is the unseasonably warm regime that will have many asking “What season are we in?”  We’ll aim for the upper 50s Thursday, around 60 Friday, and upper 60s Saturday as a strong SW flow develops in advance of our next storm system

Warmth will reach it's peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell

Warmth will reach it’s peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell

While a scattered, fast moving, shower is possible Saturday, the big story will be the warmth and a gusty SW breeze.

Our storm system will grow closer Sunday and we’ll ramp up rain and storm chances accordingly during that period.  Our two most trusted global models handle things differently as we progress into the Sunday-Monday time frame (strength, track, and timing), and we’ll need to continue to fine tune that particular period as we move forward.  As it stands now we’ll forecast rain and thunderstorms to become widespread Sunday before colder air arrives on the backside of the storm. Stay tuned.

SundayMap

MondayMap

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Major Warmth Ahead Of Storm Next Weekend…

The near term period is about as quiet as you’ll get it this time of year so that gives us an opportunity to search for the next “trouble maker.”  Out…

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Rain Moving In Late Thanksgiving…

First, I apologize for the lack of posts today. I had my first (and hopefully only) encounter with food poison yesterday evening and it’s taken most of the day to…

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Rain Changes To Snow Today; Busy Pattern Into Early December…

Screen Shot 2015-11-21 at 7.47.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain changes to snow
  • Early season arctic air settles in
  • Next storm arrives for Thanksgiving
  • Eyeing a cold open to December

Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN.  Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County).  Further north it’s mainly a snow event.  Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon

8aSat

Forecast radar 8a, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

 

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives.  While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise.  Here’s our updated snowfall map.

112115SnowMap3The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight.  Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.

Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day.  Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period.  This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…

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