Highlights:
- Wet, chilly close to the work week
- Dry weekend
- Couple storms and turning colder late next week
Busy Weather Pattern Continues…An area of low pressure is swirling overhead this morning and will help promote periods of showers into the early afternoon before drier air begins to push in. Perhaps the bigger story will be falling daytime temperatures. By the evening rush, most neighborhoods should be deep into the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times.
We still forecast a dry weekend as high pressure builds in. Early fog and clouds will be slow to give way to sunshine Saturday, but by afternoon and evening we should see some breaks in the cloud cover. We’ll label Saturday as “mostly cloudy” before more in the way of sunshine works in for the second half of the weekend.
The dry times won’t last, unfortunately, and another storm system promises showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday. This will then be followed by a bigger storm the middle of the week that will, once again, lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms. The other point we want to drive home for late next week will be an increasingly chilly regime. Temperatures will fall Thursday and even though it’s beyond the current forecast period, sub-freezing lows are a good bet next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″
2.) We bracket the hours of 2p-8p (couple hours earlier from yesterday’s thinking) as the period of potential most widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana, and the HRRR forecast radar shows what the radar may look like this evening. Have a means of getting the latest warnings.
3.) Scattered showers will continue into Friday morning before drier air arrives during the evening hours.
4.) This drier trend Friday PM is one that will continue into the weekend. High pressure will supply mostly dry weather through the entire weekend (small shower chances return Sunday evening), including sunshine.
5.) Another active period of weather awaits next week, including multiple rain chances early and late week. The latter storm looks to be the bigger event with heavy rain and thunderstorm potential Wednesday into Thursday. 7-day rain numbers check in between 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts.
6.) The story becomes a chilly one next weekend, and models suggest central Indiana may be dealing with frost and freeze conditions by next Saturday or Sunday morning.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.
As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover. This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.
In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates. This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.
As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential. “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening. This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.
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