Category: Windy

Feb 26

Monday Evening Thoughts On Storm Potential Tonight – Wednesday…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.

The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.

Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.

We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.

We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.

Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.

Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.

High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.

The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/

Feb 26

VIDEO: Forecasting Record Warmth Today; Timing Out Rounds Of Storms Late Tonight – Wednesday AM…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-forecasting-record-warmth-today-timing-out-rounds-of-storms-late-tonight-wednesday-am/

Feb 24

VIDEO: Overall, Strong Signal For Unseasonable Warmth Remains On Charts Into Early March. Watching Storms Early Next Week…

Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/

Feb 22

Just A Little Busy In The Forecast Office…

Updated 02.22.24 @ 7:20a

“Busy” is one way to describe the upcoming week to 10 days worth of weather as the pattern around these parts, and a large chunk of the East, takes on a spring look and feel. Everything from thunderstorms, rain, clipper snow, and an opportunity for strong to severe storms is included in the week ahead.

An area of low pressure will move through central and southern Indiana this afternoon, continuing to present scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While north-central Indiana has been the focal zone for early morning activity, we anticipate more of central and southern Indiana will be impacted throughout the afternoon and early evening.

All of this precipitation and embedded thunder will push off to the south of the area around or just after dinnertime. A quiet night is on deck with cooler air flowing back into the state. This will lead to a calm close to the work week as temperatures “warm” back to around 50° Friday afternoon as sunshine returns.

As we open the weekend, a rapidly moving clipper system will drop southeast across the region, eventually leading to several inches of wet snow for the east TN and western NC mountains. Back here on the home front, a period of snow is expected to develop late Friday night and predawn Saturday. While this certainly won’t be anything like what we saw last Friday, a wet coating of snow is possible in spots as this upper air feature dives across the region. By daybreak Saturday, all of the snow will be out of the area and we’ll be talking about working in more in the way of sunshine into the mix as our day progresses. Gusty northerly winds Saturday morning will diminish as the day wears on.

A quick warm-up is on the way for the 2nd half of the weekend. In fact, highs will approach 60° Sunday afternoon (how’s that for weather whip-lash?!). These warmer times will allow a more potent round of storm to rumble across the region as we progress through the early stages of next week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region Monday with showers and then attention turns to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorm potential as we go through our Tuesday and Wednesday. More on the specific timing and severe threats (damaging straight line wind appears to be the biggest concern from this distance) with updates to come in the days ahead.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the region for the opportunity of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday (2/27) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC
Wednesday (2/28) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/just-a-little-busy-in-the-forecast-office/

Feb 17

Islands Of Cold In A Sea Of Milder Times…

Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a

Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).

I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.

Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.

Another round of gusty winds will arrive overnight into Sunday morning, this time out of the southwest.

Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.

After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.

Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/