It’s a wet morning across central Indiana as widespread rain (some of which is moderate to heavy) is falling for most of the region. This is due to a well organized low pressure system and associated frontal boundary currently spinning across the central Plains.
As the widespread shield of rain departs late morning and into the early afternoon hours, we’ll have a “lull” in the activity until late afternoon and early evening. That’s when we anticipate storms to fire as the area of low pressure moves across the state. Should we get into any sort of sunshine later this afternoon (questionable at best), the opportunity for severe weather would increase during the 4p to 9p window (west to east). As it is, a couple of strong-to-severe storms can’t be ruled out given the dynamics in play. The biggest threat would be localized hail and/ or damaging wind gusts with these stronger cells.
Widespread 1″+ rainfall can be expected (both from this morning’s rain and what’s ahead this evening) with locally heavier amounts- especially south of the I-70 corridor.
Things will quieten down tonight and we still anticipate a much calmer Thanksgiving Day, itself, continuing through Black Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles overhead.
By this time, of course, attention will turn to the “shenanigans” ahead early next week. We have no changes to our thinking a significant event is ahead and continue to favor this initial storm tracking west of the spine of the Appalachians. Operational model will likely continue to offer up a wide range of solutions (sometimes with each model update). The item we’ll be most focused on is the phasing of the 2 streams. The timing of this taking place will play a critical role into who ends up with a sizable snow/ wind event vs. mostly rain with backlash snow. Stay tuned and know, as per usual, we’ll be posting away right through the holiday.
