Category: Weather Rambles

Aug 14

Monday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Open To The Work Week Gives Way To Pleasant Midweek Airmass…

Updated 08.14.23 @ 5a

I. We’re tracking (2) cold fronts this week. The first will cross Indiana later this evening. Showers this morning will be most numerous across the southern half of the state and through east-central Indiana.

A new round of scattered storms, some of which will produce vivid lightning and gusty winds, along with locally heavy rain, will fire up ahead of the boundary, itself, later this afternoon and evening.

A few light showers will linger Tuesday before a much drier airmass takes hold. Cooler air will filter into the state Tuesday along with a gusty breeze at times.

II. Speaking of drier air, how’s dew points into the 40s sound by Wednesday morning?! Are you kidding me? Not bad at all by mid August standards…

A few folks outside of the city, especially across north-central IN might even fall into the 40s to start the day Wednesday. A hint of fall, indeed…

III. The next in our series of cold fronts has it’s eyes set on our region Thursday evening. After a nice start to the day, we’ll need to watch for the potential of strong to severe storms firing up by Thursday evening ahead of the boundary. We’ll closely monitor this threat over the next couple of days and provide future updates.

As of now, it looks like dry weather will return to close the work week, including right into early parts of next week. Unseasonably cool and refreshing temperatures will give way to a warming trend Week 2…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/14/monday-morning-rambles-unsettled-open-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-pleasant-midweek-airmass/

Aug 03

Active Times Return…

Updated 08.03.23 @ 7:07a

Heavy rain and localized flooding impacted far southwestern Indiana overnight and this morning. With that said, all will remain quiet on the home front today.

The quiet times will begin to change as we flip the page into the weekend. Scattered storms will fire up Friday afternoon and evening and this will set the tone for a more unsettled regime as we move through the upcoming 6-10 days as a whole (noted by image 2 below).

After dealing with scattered storms Friday afternoon, we anticipate a more widespread rain and storm complex to roll into central Indiana Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

This will likely be followed up with another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms Sunday evening into Monday morning.

The active times won’t stop there as additional heavy rain and storms will rumble across the Ohio Valley and central Indiana into the middle and latter part of next week.

This unsettled and wet theme is all part of the overall pattern expected to carry us through the bulk of the last month of meteorological summer. Certainly a far cry from the dry, hot Augusts of years past.

More later tonight or Friday morning around the long range pattern, including updated thoughts on meteorological fall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/03/active-times-return/

Jul 30

Sunday Morning Rambles: Much Less Humid Start To The Week; Updated Thoughts On The August Pattern…

Updated 07.30.23 @ 11:25a

I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.

A refreshing air mass will filter into the state tonight.

II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.

Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.

III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).

The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/30/sunday-morning-rambles-much-less-humid-start-to-the-week-updated-thoughts-on-the-august-pattern/

Jul 25

Severe Threat Wednesday; What The Pattern Drivers Have To Say About Longevity Of Building Heat…

Updated 07.25.23 @ 5:13a

We’re running slightly cooler than normal, month-to-date, across central Indiana. (0.5° below normal at IND). Above normal temperatures have ruled the day along the coasts with the cooler anomalies in the Plains and into the western portions of the Ohio Valley.

A big flip in this regime will take place as we push through the upcoming work week. Note the expanding heat in areas where it’s been cool so far this month.

As the hot dome nudges east, central Indiana will make up for lost ground in the 90° department. In fact, the hottest and most humid air of the season will take up shop mid and late week. Low-mid 90s with overnight lows not falling below the oppressive 70° mark can be expected.

That said, we remain stubborn in believing this will be a transitional heat wave. The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America pattern) are both heading in directions that should force the ridge (hot dome) west in the Week 2 time period. This will open the door for cooler and more active weather to return, locally. We’ll likely have to deal with multiple strong-severe storm complexes tracking in northwest to southeast fashion into early August. Speaking of severe weather, all of the region is under fire for a couple rounds of storms Wednesday. Morning convection will likely remain below severe levels but a potent complex of storms is expected to redevelop Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the ingredients and severe weather parameters in play Wednesday, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential of a couple strong tornadoes. Needless to say, it’ll be a day to remain weather-aware.

In closing, when looking at the long range pattern, the wild card has to do with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Should this become more amplified, then the shift in the regime will be more dramatic. As it is, we’re far from ready to make a call on this becoming more amplified (a bigger driver in the pattern transition). The thought this could be heading into Phase 6 is less of a likely situation now compared to a few days ago, but we’ll continue to closely monitor the progression all the same. The combination of the EPO/ PNA trends will serve as the baseline in building our longer range forecast for now.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/25/what-the-pattern-drivers-have-to-say-about-longevity-of-building-heat/

Jul 16

Sunday Morning Rambles: Another Round Of Strong Storms And Lack Of Significant Heat Grab Headlines…

Updated 07.16.23 @ 7:44a

I. More of that good ole Canadian wild fire smoke is making for a hazy start to our day but thankfully all else is quiet. Unfortunately that won’t remain the case as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours. We’ll watch for darkening skies towards the mid to late afternoon and some potent storms will likely fire up by evening. A couple of these could pulse to severe levels and include a damaging wind and hail threat.

II. A cold front will take aim on the region from the northwest as we kick off the new work week. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary Monday afternoon and evening. Like this evening, a few of the storms will likely turn strong to severe (damaging wind and large hail the greatest concerns with the stronger cells).

III. The cold front will push south of our region Tuesday morning before stalling along the Ohio River. Rain and storm chances should shift downstate Tuesday as a drier brand of air takes hold for the northern half of the state. Dew points into the 50s are always nice in July, heh?!

IV. A secondary front will blow through the state as we wrap up the work week and help to reinforce the unseasonably refreshing airmass going into next weekend. Lows will likely even dip into the 50s at night.

That brings us to our closing point and that’s the lack of any sort of significant heat. In fact, it’s just the opposite over the next couple weeks. The general thinking is the cooler than normal regime will likely make up the bulk of August as well, especially if we can sneak into Phase 5-6 of the MJO.

Day 1-5 temperature anomalies
Days 5-10 temperature anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/16/sunday-morning-rambles-another-round-of-strong-storms-and-lack-of-significant-heat-grab-headlines/

Jun 20

VIDEO: Diving Into The Pattern Evolution Over The Course Of The Next Couple Weeks…

Updated 06.20.23 @ 8:45p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/20/video-diving-into-the-pattern-evolution-over-the-course-of-the-next-couple-weeks/

Jun 20

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 06.20.23 @ 5:30a

I. It’s been a cool June so far compared to normal. Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 3° below normal month to date.

Locally, there’s still no sign of any sort of significant heat on the horizon in this kind of pattern.

Needless to say, the lack of heat this time of year given how dry it’s been is a true blessing (otherwise the feedback would absolutely be kicking into high gear by now). Thankfully, it continues to look like we’ll avoid any sort of sustained hot wx compared to normal while also seeing the pattern transition towards a more active state.

II. Heaviest rains Monday fell across southern and southeastern Indiana, including amounts in excess of 1”.

Additional showers will pinwheel into central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Indianapolis and more of immediate central Indiana stand a better shot of getting some beneficial rain today when compared to Monday. Fingers crossed.

III. Additional opportunities of scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur Friday and Sunday.

Fresh Client video will be posted later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/20/tuesday-morning-rambles-6/

Jun 07

Wetter Pattern On Deck…

Updated 06.07.23 @ 5:58a

While some backyards have been lucky enough to cash in on downpours over the past several weeks, the large majority of our region has suffered through a dry, to much drier than average, period. Thankfully, the evolving pattern over the next couple weeks will begin to provide much better opportunities of more widespread, organized rain. While still not yet considered a truly “wet” pattern (remember, we believe that kicks in mid to late summer), it certainly will be much more active than what we’ve seen over the past 4-6 weeks, overall.

More specifically, we’re targeting this upcoming Sunday to get the wetter party started. While still too early for specific rain amounts, a good chunk of central Indiana and the Ohio Valley as a whole should enjoy a widespread rain.

Additional organized rain events are then slated for the middle of next week and the following weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/07/wetter-pattern-on-deck/

May 20

Extended Period Of Dry Weather; Warming Trend Next Week…

Updated 05.20.23 @ 6a

A cold front settled south across Indiana Friday evening. Most area rain gauges picked up anywhere between a tenth and 1/3 of an inch but a few lucky neighborhoods cashed in on up to half an inch. Whatever amount of rain you received last night, cherish it.

As we look forward, an extended dry period and quiet weather can be expected. This overall dry, calm pattern will prevail through the entire week ahead. As moisture levels slowly begin to increase over the holiday and all-important Indy 500 weekend, small rain chances may sneak back into the forecast, but even this is very unlikely from this distance.

High pressure will result in dry skies and plenty of sunshine in the week ahead (despite some haze from time to time, courtesy of those Canadian wild fires).

The focus is really just on temperatures over the next few days. The cool and dry airmass that reinforced itself behind our frontal passage will remain in control through Monday and then we’ll see moderating temperatures through the upcoming work week. Despite the temperature “uptick,” dry air will remain in place through the week. Great times for outdoor activities, no doubt, in the week ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/20/extended-period-of-dry-weather-warming-trend-next-week/

May 06

Now This Is More Like It…

Updated 05.06.23 @ 7:11a

A new pattern is emerging (at least for the time being) and will offer up a much more typical feel by May standards, along with periods of storms as we navigate the early portion of the new week.

The good news is that our Saturday continues to look dry.

Attention will shift off to our west and northwest later this evening for the potential of local overnight rumbles on into Sunday morning. This will be the onset of more of an unsettled pattern, including multiple storm complexes to track at times through Tuesday.

Severe weather parameters certainly aren’t “off the charts” but there will be enough energy and moisture to signal a localized damaging wind threat Sunday and Monday with any storm cluster(s) that flare up.

Rainfall amounts won’t be uniform but localized 1”+ amounts can be expected with more of a general 0.50” to 1” area-wide rain in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.

Drier air and a brief ridge of high pressure will eliminate rain and storm chances Wednesday through Friday.

Unfortunately, as it looks now, moisture levels will rise significantly heading into Mother’s Day weekend and a return of unsettled weather will follow during this time period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/06/now-this-is-more-like-it-4/

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