May 14
Updated 05.14.24 @ 5a While we are dry this morning, that will all change this afternoon and evening as moisture lifts in from the south. This is all thanks to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-talking-precipitation-in-the-short-term-and-late-may-early-june-pattern/
May 03
Updated 05.03.24 @ 7:40a Scattered showers will continue to push out of the area this morning and we should get back to plenty of dry time this afternoon. While we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-pattern-takes-an-unsettled-shift-ahead-of-a-drier-cooler-brand-of-air-settling-in-for-mid-month/
May 01
Updated 05.01.24 @ 6:45a
Welcome to May! The average high climbs from 70° to open the month into the upper 70s by month’s end. Average lows move from 48° to 58° by the end of May. We average 4.75” of rain.
As we navigate the first couple days of the month, isolated to widely scattered storms are possible but today and tomorrow will feature much more dry time than wet/ stormy.
More widespread rain and storms move into town as we close out the work week- especially centered on the first half of our Friday.
Additional storm clusters are possible over the weekend as the area will remain located between a couple of weak boundaries.
Like today and Thursday, there will be more dry time this weekend than stormy. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
A warm and increasingly humid airmass will take hold early next week with widespread heavier rainfall Monday through Wednesday.
Next week appears to offer up a regime change. While we open unsettled and muggy, a more stable and overall cooler (slightly so compared to normal) pattern will develop around a week from today…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-rambles-12/
Apr 05
The upcoming “immediate term” forecast package has a little something for everyone: Good, Bad, and UGLY.
Let’s start with the “good” first, we should finally see drier air win out and get us back into the sunshine department Saturday. The trade off? Unseasonably cold conditions taking hold under those clearing skies tonight and diminishing wind. Most areas should wake up to the upper 20s come Saturday morning, but under that strong April sun angle, temperatures will zoom into the middle 50s by afternoon. Enjoy the badly needed vitamin D as it won’t stick around terribly long.
Our next storm system will deliver a round of gusty storms in here by Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunshine to start the day will give way to increasing clouds and scattered to numerous storms later in the day. We’re monitoring for the potential of a few strong-to-severe storms during this time period.
We still have our fingers crossed for a brightening sky to take hold Monday, but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. – More of a now cast type situation if you ask us as the region will be in between systems. We’ll continue to hope for the best.
Regardless, active weather quickly returns midweek as a surface low rides northeast into the Ohio Valley. This will mean widespread rain and embedded thunder will return, and heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely.
Heaviest rain likely arrives later Wednesday into Thursday followed by a gusty and briefly colder close to next week. By this point, early indications are that the region can expect another significant rain event, including widespread 2″+ totals (we’ll hone in on those amounts as we get closer).
There’s ensemble support to back up the heavy rain idea.
Additional details to come throughout the weekend (and beyond) around these items and more.
Happy Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-afternoon-rambles-close-eyes-on-mondays-cloud-cover-and-gearing-up-for-another-active-week-of-hefty-rain-storms/
Apr 01
Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a
I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.
II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.
III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.
All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/