Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.
The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.
Periods of rain can be expected through the remainder of the week.
Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.
That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.
While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.
The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.
We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.
Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.
After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.
A freezing rain event is becoming increasingly likely Mon evening into Tuesday.
Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.
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Hoosiers are waking up to subzero temperatures this morning. We note double digit below zero readings now penetrating into northwest parts of the state. Wind chill values are dangerously cold.
Highs today will barely sneak into the single digits as the true arctic air mass continues to have a tight grip on the region.
Some light snow may scoot through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This won’t amount to much even if it does materialize. (Dusting to half inch of snow if that).
The next opportunity for potentially more meaningful snow arrives late week – in the Thursday PM through Friday timeframe, preceding another intrusion of bitter arctic air to open next weekend.
For folks longing for milder times, hang in there. A pattern change still seems afoot come late month. This January thaw may even take highs back into the 40s and 50s ahead of a reloading of cold times as we flip the page to February.
High latitude blocking will continue to mature over the upcoming 6-10 day period. This will force a very stormy pattern underneath (across the Lower 48). After the light snow late tonight and Saturday morning (primarily grassy and elevated surfaces), we’re tracking 3 additional storms over this particular time period and each of these will deal out their own respective challenges that we’ll have to hone in on as the system(s) draws closer. Our daily posts and Client videos will handle those specifics.
Storm dates:
I. 01.08 – 01.09
II. 01.11 – 01.13
III. 01.14 – 01.15
A stormy pattern will eventually give way to bitterly cold, arctic air oozing east. The potential is present for cross polar flow to get going towards the 10-15 day period as well.
While we’re not looking at anything particularly noteworthy (in terms of relative to average) in the cold department over the next week, this begins to change by the 8-10 day period. Admittedly it’s been challenging trying to time when the arctic air sloshes east in this type pattern, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this should take place around mid-month. Note the cross polar flow developing towards the 10-15 day period, per this afternoon’s European ensemble update.
Just how cold are we talking? Subzero lows and highs around 10°F without a snowpack. Should we have a snowpack down by this time then the threat of a double-digit below zero low and highs in the single digits is on the table. The target date for this cold comes between the 14th and 18th. Wind chills will obviously be much colder.
The plot continues to thicken…
A bitterly cold airmass should engulf a large chunk of the country by mid-January.
We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.
It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?
While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.
We open the period with widespread milder than normal temperatures in the 1-6 day period. Greatest anomalies are centered over the upper Midwest. Note the step down to a pattern, locally, that’s more seasonable if not slightly cooler than normal to close the year and open 2024. That’s the emphasis we want to drive home- though turning colder, we’re not in the camp that our immediate region will have to deal with any sort of arctic air anytime soon.
Days 1-6
Days 6-11
Days 10-15
You know we’ll be keeping close eyes on the Madden Julian Oscillation over the next few days. Should the American guidance come to fruition, then a warmer pattern is certainly alive and kicking after the cooler pattern to open January. Interestingly this morning, early trends are more in favor of the European camp, but it’s still early and we’ll need to monitor closely through the Christmas holiday.
American guidance isn’t as bullish moving into Phase 3 early January with the overnight update.
In the shorter term, morning showers will transition to more of a widespread light rain across the northern half of the state later this afternoon and tonight. Some northern Indiana rain gauges could surpass 0.50″ during this time period from “round 1” of more widespread rain.
Pesky light showers will be around Saturday, but this will be more of a nuisance than anything else. Widespread measurable rain isn’t anticipated. We then flip the calendar to Christmas Eve and the forecast continues to improve. We even anticipate some sunshine to couple with the unseasonably mild air and breezy southerly winds. Highs approaching 60° can be expected as Santa loads up his sleigh.
More widespread rain arrives Christmas Day, especially by late morning and during the afternoon. This is the timeframe when we expect greatest coverage and heaviest rainfall rates of the period. Storm total rainfall of 0.50″ to 1″ still looks like a good bet.
Colder air works in behind the storm and left over “wrap around” precipitation will begin to mix with and change to snow Thursday.
The downhill slide to more seasonable and slightly colder than normal temperatures continues as we close out the year…
1.) Our clipper system is still on track to deliver a wintry mix of a cold rain and wet snow to central Indiana during the predawn hours Tuesday, continuing into the mid and late morning. We don’t have any changes from this morning’s video update. Thinking is that this is primarily a wet snow event from in and around Indianapolis and points north, including the potential of a coating to a dusting of snow in/ around the city with 0.50″ to 1″ type accumulation of wet snow across north-central Indiana (including northern Indy ‘burbs, such as Whitestown, Zionsville, Westfield, Carmel, and Fishers). Pavement issues aren’t anticipated due to the marginally cold temperatures in place and recent mild air, but slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces is likely in the areas mentioned above.
Most of the “system” precipitation should be out of here by lunchtime with a chance of a few scattered snow showers returning to north-central Indiana and into Indianapolis Wednesday morning with the weak cold air advection (CAA).
2.) After a seasonably chilly midweek, temperatures will “zoom” into the 50s and even approach 60 before we close the work week out. This is in response to an aggressive southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching and strengthening surface low pressure system that already has the weather community “buzzin'” several days in advance. While the pattern is conducive for a rapidly deepening area of low pressure advancing from the Ark-la-tex region northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, there are still many more questions than answers before we can provide anything concrete with respect to p-type, including potential snow numbers.
The hesitancy in leaning in stronger to this event from a winter perspective, locally, is the lack of cold air available to tap into. That’s not to say this storm will have to generate all of the cold on its own, but we’ll have to have a rapid strengthener to help aid in the cold production if anything meaningful is to transpire on the winter front. All of that said, it’s safe to say that a widespread, wind-whipped precipitation event is becoming increasingly likely this weekend. While the initial lean is still mostly “wet vs. white” for central Indiana, we’ll be watching trends very carefully.
3.) With each passing day, we receive more questions on the weather pattern around the holidays, and understandably so. The key to a sizable shift to more sustained cold and winter weather opportunities lies squarely on the MJO, in our opinion. I’ll include the image we posted here last week below showing the overall MJO evolution into the 2nd half of December. It’s certainly not unreasonable to think that the progression into the colder phases should happen when you extrapolate this out.
Long story short, we have no changes in our idea of a colder shift taking place with the overall pattern around (give or take a day or 2) 12/20.
The coldest air of the season is greeting us out the door this morning, complete with snow flurries and wind chill values around zero. Safe to say that the heavy winter gear is needed today as highs struggle to crack 30° later on.
We’re waking up to 10s this morning with wind chill values near 0°.Snow flurries and scattered light snow showers compliment the arctic intrusion this morning. No accumulation of significance is expected.
The upper pattern will transition to a milder (no blow torch by any means) and more active regime as we navigate the next 6-10 days. Most, if not all, storm systems will feature “wet vs. white” weather here over this particular time period.
Dry times return Wednesday only to give way to increasing clouds and widespread rain Thursday PM into Friday. The overall gloomy and damp pattern will prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Needless to say, enjoy whatever sunshine you can get later today and Wednesday.
Wetter than normal times return late week into early Week 2.
It continues to look like the potential is there for more appreciable cold to get back involved with the pattern after mid-month and especially closer to the holidays.
We’re waking up to cold (lows bottomed out in the middle 20s for most central Indiana neighborhoods) but dry conditions. While we’ll deal with more clouds today, dry conditions will hold today and tonight.
A weak system will move through the Ohio Valley Sunday with a wintry mix of wet snow and a cold rain across central Indiana, mostly rain downstate, and all snow across north-central and northern Indiana. Sunday will dawn dry but light precipitation will overspread the state from west to east through the mid morning hours. We don’t envision any sort of snow accumulation with the exception of far western central Indiana (dusting) northeast into the northern 1/3 of the state (1”-2” amounts on grassy and elevated surfaces). Generally speaking we think the accumulation potential is greatest from Rockville to Kokomo, and up to Fort Wayne. Light precipitation will end as a brief period of light snow Sunday night into Indianapolis but “light” is the key word and we don’t expect any accumulation concerns in the city, itself.
The coldest air so far this season blows into town as we open the work week. In fact, highs may struggle to reach freezing Tuesday, including morning lows into the 10s.
November will close out on a colder than normal note.
After Sunday, from a precipitation perspective, we’re talking about a very dry and quiet regime until we get to Friday. We’ll close the work week with a new storm system that will deliver a rainy Friday.
By this point, a transition to milder times will be underway so we don’t expect any sort of p-type challenges with this particular system.
We’ve been keying in for several days on the energy that will lead to a Thanksgiving and Black Friday Winter Storm for the Rockies, and eventually a swath of accumulating snow into the Plains over the holiday weekend. To no surprise, modeling continues to trend more organized with this energy as it moves across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. The time we’re monitoring for potential wintry impacts across central Indiana come early Sunday morning, continuing into the afternoon.
As bullish as we’ve been on this trending towards a more substantial system, capable of producing snow, locally, we remain confident that this won’t be some sort of significant winter storm. Why? Pattern recognition on both fronts. That said, the potential of a light snow accumulation across central Indiana Sunday is very much alive and kicking as of this evening. Know that we’ll be here right through the holiday and the weekend tracking the latest and will continue to keep you posted moving forward.
Regardless if we receive snow or not, the coldest air so far this season is on deck early next week.
Models continue to trend more organized with our holiday weekend system, potentially capable of the 1st widespread snow of the season for central Indiana.
