As we write this update, severe storms are firing across northern IL where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11p (eastern). Meanwhile, all is quiet on the home front, thanks to strong “capping” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that cap likely won’t hold and we still anticipate scattered strong to severe storms to impact central and southern Indiana during the overnight.
All modes of severe weather remain on the table, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Initiation of convection across central/ southern IN should come around or just after midnight and end by 3a to 4a (west to east).
Please make sure you have a means to receive the latest severe weather alerts prior to heading to bed tonight.
By the time most are waking up Wednesday, we’ll be talking about an entirely different array of conditions. Sharply colder air, light snow showers, and strong northwesterly winds will ensure to remind folks it’s late-February, after all.
Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).
I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.
Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.
Another round of gusty winds will arrive overnight into Sunday morning, this time out of the southwest.
Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.
After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.
Updated 02.16.24 @ 12:14p Snow will continue to overspread the remainder of central Indiana through the afternoon and fall moderately at times. Localized banding should develop this afternoon and these…
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I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
Monday night’s system has trended further south today.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
Scattered showers/ embedded thunder overnight, opportunity for slushy, light snow accumulation, and long range rumblings highlight this evening’s rambles…
I. A thin line of broken showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will push southeast across central IN during the predawn hours Saturday. More widespread, concentrated rain and embedded thunder will work across the southern 1/3 of the state overnight and early Saturday morning. Across central IN, rainfall amounts of 0.10″ to 0.25″ will be possible with this activity with more widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ totals across the southern portion of the state.
The front will pass southeast across the region predawn Saturday with a northwest wind shift taking place from northwest to southeast prior to sunrise Saturday. Cooler (not cold by February standards) air will flow into the region over the weekend.
II. The second piece of energy that will lead to a significant rain and associated severe weather episode across the South and a big ole snowstorm for our friends across the Northeast early next week, still appears to mostly bypass our immediate region. It’s possible southern portions of the state (mostly south of Indianapolis) could see a light, slushy snow accumulation, but I think even in these areas the 1″, via today’s EPS is too “generous.” The reason? Snowfall rates, marginal temperatures, and the unseasonably warm ground. Further east, this will be a much different animal with a notable snowstorm anticipated for the central Appalachians into southern New England. Regardless, at least locally, Monday evening into Monday night would be the period to watch for the potential of the slushy wet snow accumulation potential.
III. The upcoming week will undoubtedly be much cooler than what we’ve grown accustomed to from February ’24 so far, but nothing overly cold for this time of year by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll watch for the threat of a couple of clipper systems that could deliver mixed rain/ snow or light snow, but significant snow makers aren’t on the horizon in the week ahead as of this evening. We’ll continue to closely monitor.
The opportunity is present for a shot of colder air behind one of these clippers next weekend.
IV. The reason for “pause” this morning in the long standing idea here of a return to prolonged colder than normal weather into March came from a positive trend in the EPO and what at least appears (from this distance) any sort of MJO venture into Phase 8 will be very brief. If (still a bigger “if” than we prefer) we don’t keep that EPO negative and the MJO goes into the neutral phase, even a negative NAO won’t be able to impact the area with notable cold. Can the other players on the field at least keep the period closer to average or slightly cooler than normal? Yes, but any prolonged or significant cold would be highly unlikely if the EPO/ MJO combo doesn’t come to fruition. You better believe we’ll be watching trends carefully over the weekend into early next week.
Today’s midday computer guidance is trending more bullish for trailing energy to deliver heavier precipitation across central IN and the Ohio Valley. While there are many more questions than answers with respect to precipitation type, confidence is increasing significantly that a period of more significant precipitation will come at us in (2) waves this weekend into early next week: Saturday and again Monday.
Today’s ensemble guidance (12z total precipitation GEFS and EPS shown below) is showing a northward adjustment in more significant moisture into the Ohio Valley over the weekend into early next week.
We’ll continue to closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days but as of now, we feel confident enough to hit the prospects of rain harder Saturday (still nothing overly heavy but certainly more than guidance suggested over the past few days) and another period of widespread precipitation to open the new work week on Monday. As colder air works into the region over the weekend, this secondary wave of moisture may feature more in the way of wintry conditions across at least a portion of the area. Far too early for specifics beyond this overall idea for this time period, but should wet snow work into the picture for some, the recent warm ground and marginal temperatures would likely limit pavement impacts. As colder air becomes more significant and entrenched down the road, winter weather headlines will likely become more frequent late Feb into March…
We’re pushing 6 days now since our last measurable precipitation and that unusually calm, boring stretch of weather will continue for a couple more days. Despite some low clouds at times, expect our quiet and unseasonably mild weather pattern to continue. A late week frontal passage (FROPA) will pull a true taste of spring north into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. We still don’t anticipate this being a significant precipitation maker for central Indiana.
A secondary (much stronger) low pressure system will ride along this pressing boundary and impact areas to our east (and south) with heavier precipitation over the weekend into early next week. The southern Appalachians once again may “cash in” on a hefty snow event.
This more active period comes as a wholesale pattern change gets underway with a significantly colder air mass aimed to overwhelm much of the Lower 48 as we push into next week.
We note longer range models showing cross polar flow setting up late February. To no surprise, the ante is upped for the threat of a period of significant cold prior to month’s end.
We’ll watch for the threat of new winter weather opportunities to emerge during this colder pattern down the road.
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An unseasonably mild and quiet week is on tap. We aren’t forecasting rain to return into the picture until late week and the upcoming Super Bowl weekend. Highs will likely flirt with, if not exceed, the 60° mark Friday ahead of a frontal passage.
An unseasonably mild week is on tap.
Highs will flirt with, if not surpass, the 60° mark Friday.
After Friday’s FROPA, we’ll watch the trailing, more significant piece of energy impact the Ohio Valley next weekend. Obviously, it’s far too early to determine if we’re talking about more rain and/ or snow, but the initial hunch here is that this should be primarily a liquid event, despite the snowy solution on the overnight European model. We’ll watch carefully in the coming days.
The more active pattern late week and over the weekend is a signal that the pattern is changing. Once again, we believe that we’re heading into more of a prolonged version of what we dealt with in January, thought the jury is still out on the extreme solutions on the table with respect to just how cold (should we get into Phase 8 of the MJO then look out). As it is, the teleconnection suite aligning in a manner that they are is reason enough to be fired up on an all-out return of winter for mid-February. The forecasted strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) provides us with a greater than normal confidence level that this cold pattern will have staying power not only through the remainder of the month, but into the 1st half of March (at least).
Latest long range modeling highlights the prolonged nature of the cold pattern:
We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.
2/2 – 2/8
2/9 – 2/16
Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.
In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.
A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.
The narrow but more organized band of locally moderate-heavy precipitation failed to materialize overnight. The result is a busted snowfall forecast. Sure some are dealing with wet snow this morning, but the type of precipitation rates weren’t achieved to cool the entire column of air enough to allow the accumulating snow axis of 1”-2” to materialize.
Regardless of what type of precipitation you’re seeing this morning, this will all pull out of the state around lunchtime. Western portions of Indiana will dry out much sooner.
We’ll be left with blustery conditions today, including north, northwest winds that will reach speeds north of 30 MPH at times.
Expected wind gusts of 30+ MPH through the afternoon
With all of this said, the great news is that the balance of the upcoming week (into next weekend) will be significantly quieter around these parts when compared to this past week. We’ll watch a clipper system that will likely deliver a cold rain and/ or a wintry mix Tuesday morning into the afternoon but this shouldn’t be a big deal across central Indiana.
That’s all she wrote on the precipitation front heading into next weekend. Heights will build over Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay block) this week and force a more active pattern to our south late week. While we’ll have to continue monitoring the potential of interesting times to our south (lower Ohio Valley, TN Valley and Deep South) going into Friday and the weekend, this upper air pattern should keep our immediate weather much quieter, aside from a “back door” cold front that will pass through here dry. We will certainly notice a much colder time of things developing during this period, along with gusty winds at times.
Looking Ahead: The overall pattern should feature a milder than normal regime (as a whole), along with drier than average conditions to close January and open February.
