May 24
Updated 05.24.24 @ 2:40p Quick afternoon update on our latest thinking regarding the weekend and timing out the multiple storm threats. Longer term, it continue to look like a rather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/24/afternoon-thoughts-on-the-weekend/
May 15
Updated 05.15.24 @ 7:10a Though certainly not “uniform” in nature, rain has been locally excessive in spots throughout central Indiana over the past 24 hours (3”+ totals for some while…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/15/couple-more-bumps-in-the-road-on-the-way-to-a-great-weekend/
May 14
Updated 05.14.24 @ 5a While we are dry this morning, that will all change this afternoon and evening as moisture lifts in from the south. This is all thanks to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/14/tuesday-morning-rambles-talking-precipitation-in-the-short-term-and-late-may-early-june-pattern/
May 03
Updated 05.03.24 @ 7:40a Scattered showers will continue to push out of the area this morning and we should get back to plenty of dry time this afternoon. While we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/03/video-pattern-takes-an-unsettled-shift-ahead-of-a-drier-cooler-brand-of-air-settling-in-for-mid-month/
May 01
Updated 05.01.24 @ 6:45a
Welcome to May! The average high climbs from 70° to open the month into the upper 70s by month’s end. Average lows move from 48° to 58° by the end of May. We average 4.75” of rain.
As we navigate the first couple days of the month, isolated to widely scattered storms are possible but today and tomorrow will feature much more dry time than wet/ stormy.
More widespread rain and storms move into town as we close out the work week- especially centered on the first half of our Friday.
Additional storm clusters are possible over the weekend as the area will remain located between a couple of weak boundaries.
Like today and Thursday, there will be more dry time this weekend than stormy. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
A warm and increasingly humid airmass will take hold early next week with widespread heavier rainfall Monday through Wednesday.
Next week appears to offer up a regime change. While we open unsettled and muggy, a more stable and overall cooler (slightly so compared to normal) pattern will develop around a week from today…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/01/wednesday-morning-rambles-12/
Apr 05
The upcoming “immediate term” forecast package has a little something for everyone: Good, Bad, and UGLY.
Let’s start with the “good” first, we should finally see drier air win out and get us back into the sunshine department Saturday. The trade off? Unseasonably cold conditions taking hold under those clearing skies tonight and diminishing wind. Most areas should wake up to the upper 20s come Saturday morning, but under that strong April sun angle, temperatures will zoom into the middle 50s by afternoon. Enjoy the badly needed vitamin D as it won’t stick around terribly long.
Our next storm system will deliver a round of gusty storms in here by Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunshine to start the day will give way to increasing clouds and scattered to numerous storms later in the day. We’re monitoring for the potential of a few strong-to-severe storms during this time period.
We still have our fingers crossed for a brightening sky to take hold Monday, but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. – More of a now cast type situation if you ask us as the region will be in between systems. We’ll continue to hope for the best.
Regardless, active weather quickly returns midweek as a surface low rides northeast into the Ohio Valley. This will mean widespread rain and embedded thunder will return, and heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely.
Heaviest rain likely arrives later Wednesday into Thursday followed by a gusty and briefly colder close to next week. By this point, early indications are that the region can expect another significant rain event, including widespread 2″+ totals (we’ll hone in on those amounts as we get closer).
There’s ensemble support to back up the heavy rain idea.
Additional details to come throughout the weekend (and beyond) around these items and more.
Happy Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/friday-afternoon-rambles-close-eyes-on-mondays-cloud-cover-and-gearing-up-for-another-active-week-of-hefty-rain-storms/
Apr 01
Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a
I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.
II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.
III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.
All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/01/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/
Mar 22
Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a
The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.
Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.
Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.
Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.
A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.
Another system will follow late week and next weekend.
1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/22/friday-morning-rambles-more-long-range-chatter/
Mar 13
Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a
Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.
A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.
We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.
Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.
Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.
As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.
More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/13/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a
A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!
Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.
The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.
Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/03/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/