Jul 10
I wanted to personally take a moment and welcome all of our new followers, subscribers, and clients. This has easily been our busiest summer to-date and your support of IndyWx.com…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/10/welcome-to-our-new-followers-and-a-quick-word/
Jul 07
With the first week of July in the books, we wanted to touch base on what we believe the remainder of the month has in store. In short, there’s no change to our ongoing idea of a transitional period July 10th through 20th followed by a more pronounced shift to cooler temperatures as we wrap up the month: roughly the 21st through 31st.
In some aspects, the transitional period has already begun- just a couple of days earlier than originally expected. Thankfully, the early month heat has subsided, giving way to a couple days of very refreshing conditions. After a slight rebound in humidity to open the work week, a cold front will slip through central Indiana Tuesday. This will offer up the potential of a thundershower followed by a return of the refreshing easterly flow we’re currently enjoying.
Our latest 7-day forecast reflects this slightly cooler air mass and the associated “pull back” in humidity over the midweek stretch.
Heat and humidity will then build again during the late week period ahead of an approaching cold front that will likely offer up more in the way of scattered to numerous storms next weekend. Note the “ups and downs” over the upcoming 7-10 day period. While sustained heat isn’t expected, there will be a few hot days thrown in the mix for good measure as the overall pattern works through its’ transition.
After the upcoming 10-day stretch, we notice the data becoming more aligned in a manner that will pull the worst of the heat, relative to average, west and put the Mid West and Ohio Valley in a position to turn cooler with more authority, as well as more active to close the month. We have to give a hat tip of the cap to the JMA Weeklies for first seeing this a couple of weeks back, and while we weren’t ready to jump on the idea of a sustained trough setting up over the Great Lakes in what will now be the Week 2-3 time period, the model did see the pull back before the majority of other data.
The new GEFS this afternoon sees something similar:
Again, along with the expected cooler shift, the model is painting a wet pattern emerging as we put the wraps on the month of July. With the developing northwest flow aloft, it’s tough to disagree with this overall more active look.
Enjoy this pleasant early-July weather and have a great weekend! Additional updates will arrive here and on our social media outlets throughout the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/07/looking-ahead-2/
Jun 28
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/28/video-looking-at-the-longer-range/
Jun 24
As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/checking-in-no-changes-to-expected-significant-4th-of-july-heat-wave/
Jun 18
A cold front will sink south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon before stalling out through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.
Unsettled weather returns as a frontal boundary stalls out across the region into the upcoming weekend.
Rain and storm chances will increase in overall coverage and intensity as we move into Tuesday- particularly during the afternoon hours. With precipitable water values exceeding 2″ at times, locally heavy downpours can be expected.
Despite cooler (still mighty humid) temperatures arriving, the overall pattern won’t change significantly into late week and this weekend. With the frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley, periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. At times, disturbances will track along the boundary and lead to increased coverage of storms. Perhaps Thursday and Friday will serve up the greatest coverage of thunderstorms as a surface wave moves out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes.
The combination of a juicy air mass and a stationary boundary draped overhead spells a flash flood risk. The lack of any sort of overall steering current suggests the potential of thunderstorms that may train over the same communities at times. As mentioned earlier, precipitable water values (PWATS) will approach and exceed 2″ and this will support torrential downpours at times.
Officially, we think the upcoming 7-day period will deal out widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms train.
After a dry few days with exceptional heat, the unsettled and cooler pattern, overall, will be welcomed with open arms!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/18/stormy-pattern-returns-localized-flash-flood-threat-emerges/
Jun 13
A cold front is sinking south as we write this (6:45p) Wednesday evening. A couple of strong to severe storms have developed ahead of the boundary and if you’re reading this from the southern 1/3 of the state, remain weather aware this evening. Otherwise, a drier regime will arrive behind the boundary and at least temporarily lead to a more refreshing air mass for our Thursday. Those 50s sure will feel nice out the door Thursday morning!
Lows will fall into the middle 50s for many communities outside of the city Thursday morning.
Unfortunately, the nice and refreshing air won’t last long. A building hot dome (ridge of high pressure) will center itself over the Ohio Valley this weekend and help promote excessive heat. It’s not just the high temperatures that will reach dangerous levels (lower to middle 90s), but overnight lows will remain oppressive, as well (low to mid 70s). Heat indices will surge north of 100° at times. The ridge will also serve to limit storm chances this weekend- “isolated” coverage at best.
A cold front will drop south early next week and help increase overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday along with provide relief (at least temporary) from the hot, humid conditions. Temperatures will settle back closer to average by the middle of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/13/hottest-air-so-far-this-season-arrives-over-the-weekend/
Jun 09
An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week. The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-). While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain. A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.
Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.
A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week. Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.
We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.
Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).
An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air. We’ll keep you updated!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/09/new-week-kicks-off-with-more-storm-chances/
Jun 07
Slow moving thunderstorms are currently producing small hail and torrential rainfall north of Lafayette (as of 5:45p Thursday). We have reports of 1″ to as much as 1.5″ of rain falling near Battle Ground in less than an hour.
Eventually these storms should pick up momentum and head off to the southeast later tonight.
This is only the beginning of daily rain and storm chances in a warm and humid air mass through the weekend and on into early next week. The culprit? An upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and “spokes” of energy, or upper level disturbances, rotating around the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest.
An increasingly muggy air mass will take hold of the region as we close the work week, with dew points approaching 70° at times. The term “air you can wear” comes to mind. As impulses of energy interact with this tropical air mass, thunderstorms will blossom- particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.
We’ll have to nail down specifics with storm coverage and timing within our short-term forecast products and updates, but each day into early next week will feature coverage of storms across central Indiana. Future forecast radar products show scattered to numerous storms around Friday evening and again Saturday. Get used to this look.
Looking down the road, a “sticky” summer feel will remain intact through next week, but changes are brewing in the longer range. These changes would support a cooler regime developing just past mid-June (in the 10 to 15 day time frame). While the duration is up for debate, it’ll be nice for at least a few days of cooler air…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/07/tropical-feel-with-daily-storm-chances/
Jun 05
Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet. The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea. The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well. On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift. With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.” I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend. Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer. (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).
While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar. More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.
While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region. We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.
Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally. Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole. In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June. At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/05/telling-time-ahead/
May 19
Scattered showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder will be most numerous this morning into the early-mid afternoon hours before briefly drier conditions build in this evening.
Our attention will then shift to the potential of strong thunderstorms late Sunday. Higher resolution guidance suggests storms will begin to rumble into western Indiana late Sunday evening (around 9p to 10p) before tracking east into the overnight hours.
With a stalled front nearby, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in our forecast into the middle of the week. While it won’t rain the entire time, unsettled conditions will remain into Wednesday before high pressure provides drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.
Thinking as of now is that a new storm system will approach next weekend, which would deliver a return of unsettled weather late Friday, continuing through the all-important Memorial Day and Indy 500 weekend. We obviously still have plenty of time to watch things unfold over the upcoming week and will get more specific as time grows closer.
A new storm system could result in an unsettled Memorial Day weekend around these parts.
From a temperature perspective, the upcoming 6-10 days will run well above average, maintaining the warm May theme. Looking out further, there’s the possibility that the last couple of days of the month could trend cooler behind the Memorial Day weekend storm.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/19/timing-out-weekend-rain-and-storms-looking-towards-memorial-day-weekend/