Category: Weather Rambles

Apr 27

More Rumblings Around The Mid-May Pattern Change…

Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a

May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.

But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.

And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.

While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.

I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/27/more-rumblings-around-the-mid-may-pattern-change/

Apr 18

Note On Late Week…

Updated 04.18.23 @ 7:15p

Today’s guidance is starting to hone in on the most likely scenario as we close out the work week and head into the weekend. After a couple days of what sure seemed like “far fetched” solutions being printed out by the GFS, it’s trended much closer towards what the European was showing this morning. The model is actually more like a “blend” of the two ideas from this morning.

We continue to believe the initial wave of moisture will arrive Thursday evening (after a very warm and dry day). This will then be followed by a second surge of moisture Friday night into Saturday morning (lasting into Saturday afternoon across eastern Indiana). This second wave of precipitation will likely be more widespread and heavier for the eastern half of the state during the aforementioned time frame. As colder air gets pulled into the region, wrap-around precipitation will mix with wet snow (yet again) Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure should then build overhead allowing for the coldest air to settle in Sunday night and Monday morning (potentially with a repeat Tuesday morning depending on the timing of our next system). If skies clear as anticipated, the potential remains for overnight lows to dip into the upper 20s.

As mentioned above, forecast models are now in much better agreement regarding rainfall placement and amounts (heaviest across central and eastern IN) with this event.

We’ll see if these trends hold firm overnight and be sure to cover this (and more) in our Client video discussion Wednesday morning!

Make it a relaxing evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/18/note-on-late-week/

Apr 13

Thursday Morning Rambles: More “Exciting” Weather Creeps Back In…

Updated 04.13.23 @ 6a

I. We’ve got one more boring wx day on our hands before conditions slowly begin to turn more active as we head into the weekend. Short-term, high resolution data suggests a couple scattered showers or storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. While the best forcing will remain to our south and east, we may be able to crank out a couple downpours as moisture levels increase through the PM. This certainly isn’t anything to cancel plans over, but just prepare for a passing downpour in spots.

II. Better chances of more organized rain and thunder will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event for most of the region, guidance continues to trend wetter with this system. What all week looked like a 0.10” to 0.25” type situation now very well may end up in the 0.50” to 1” range. Not terrible for a region running drier than average month to date.

III. As colder air sweeps in behind the system, rain will mix with wet snow across northern parts of the state as we open the new week. The rest of us can expect a couple days (Monday and Tuesday) with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

IV. The early portion of the work week will feature a return of dry weather but it’s safe to say next week won’t be nearly as uneventful as a whole. We’re tracking a midweek system that will deliver a few showers Wednesday and a more organized storm system that should provide a better coverage of rain and embedded thunder to close the work week. More on all of this and a long range look ahead in tonight’s Client video discussion!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/13/thursday-morning-rambles-more-exciting-weather-creeps-back-in/

Apr 09

You Knew It Was Coming: Cold “Jab” Dialed Up Early Week 2…

Updated 04.09.23 @ 4:37p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy and blessed Easter Sunday! The week ahead doesn’t offer up much “excitement” in the weather department, but that comes to a screeching halt early week 2 as a potent storm system finally delivers a return of precipitation, and perhaps more notably, an unseasonably cold “jab” of air!

In the short-term, high pressure will dominate the upcoming work week, including a “rinse and repeat” regime of sunny days along with moderating temperatures.

Highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s by the 2nd half of the work week. Dry conditions will prevail.

It’s not until this weekend when unsettled weather will return to central Indiana and the Ohio Valley as a whole. This is all thanks to a cold front and associated area of low pressure.

Though early, model consensus shows a “cut off” low developing early next week, keeping unsettled conditions in play. It’s not just the likelihood of lingering precipitation, but a significant push of late season chilly air is also dialed up to plunge into the region. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the air grow cold enough where rain showers may mix with and change to wet snow showers.

Regardless if we’re talking snow or not, highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s will be a bitter pill to swallow after the extended stretch of pleasant (and increasingly warm) weather we’ll continue enjoying through the week…

We’re targeting early next week for a “jab” of unseasonably cold air.

Needless to say, this system will be a topic of discussion through the upcoming week. More in our Client video discussion Monday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/09/you-knew-it-was-coming-cold-jab-dialed-up-early-week-2/

Mar 05

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 03.05.23 @ 5:08p

I. If you can, be sure to spend some time outside this afternoon or Monday. Highs into the 50s this afternoon will be replaced with mid to upper 60s across central IN Monday afternoon. While shower chances will return across northern parts of the state Monday morning, most of the day should be dry, locally. A few showers could sneak in here tomorrow evening (shown below) but not before what should otherwise be an unseasonably pleasant open to the work week.

Highs should zoom into the middle 60s Monday.
A few light showers may move in towards 5p, or so, Monday. Eastern and northern portions of the area appear at greatest risk of a passing shower Monday evening.

II. A colder airmass will settle south into the region for midweek. We’re talking about lows falling back below freezing and highs in the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times, but we should stay on the dry side.

III. Our next system of significance is slated to impact the area as we close out the work week. Models are struggling mightily with respect on how they handle upper level energy transferring to the east coast. As such, operational guidance ranges anywhere from more of a “white to wet” solution in the Thursday evening and Friday time frame. We still have time to watch things unfold but the initial thought is that this won’t be a big deal from a wintry perspective, locally. At this point, I’m not even confident enough to say this will be a heavy precipitation producer, but can see a scenario where that changes should the energy phase a little sooner. Stay tuned, but as of now, it appears as if the pattern will be too progressive to allow this to become a big event for our immediate region.

IV. Another system appears likely to open up early next week, but similar to our late week system, there are more questions than answers at this distance. While confidence remains high on a continued active pattern and one that also turns progressively colder (compared to normal), the all-important specific details are up for great debate.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/05/sunday-afternoon-rambles-5/

Feb 25

Saturday Morning Rambles: Eyes On Severe Threat To Open The Week And Winter’s Return…

Updated 02.25.23 @ 8:28a

  1. The remainder of our weekend should be quiet on the weather front. Take the opportunity to enjoy a calmer couple of days as an active week awaits.
  2. A warm front will lift north through the region Sunday night with showers and embedded thunder. Temperatures will jump back into the lower and middle 60s across the southern portion of the state Monday morning. As a cold front swings into the relatively warmer and moist airmass, a line of stronger storms will be a good bet across the southern half of Indiana late Monday morning into early afternoon. A few of these may produce damaging winds and large hail, and there’s also potential for a quick spin up tornado. Strong and gusty winds (40-50 MPH) can also be expected across the entire region outside of storms.

3. Attention will then shift to mid week as multiple pieces of energy try and bundle together to generate another size-able storm. Confidence on any one particular solution is low at this distance, but with colder air pressing east, this system will likely have a more widespread wintry component on the north and west flank. No reason to speculate further from this distance, but know we’ll continue closely monitoring trends.

4. Finally, it continues to look like any and all who believed winter was over will be sorely mistaken. Confidence continues to grow in a cold to much colder than normal 2nd half of March, which likely continues to push into at least early April. Note the updated European Weeklies for the time period March 10 to April 10. That’s a classic look for significant late season cold. We’re also likely far from finished with wintry precipitation…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/25/saturday-morning-rambles-eyes-on-severe-threat-to-open-the-week-and-winters-return/

Feb 19

Few Miles Makes All The Difference This Week…

Updated 02.19.23 @ 5:54p

Spring will most certainly be in the air this week, at least for some. At the same time, there will be all sorts of whaling and gnashing of teeth for other areas that will be close to basking in the warmth, but yet so far at the same time. Note the significant temperature gradient that will set up shop across the region in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

A well organized area of low pressure will ride east along the stalled boundary separating the chill and near record breaking warmth. This feature will be responsible for widespread rain, locally, and an icy mixture of precipitation across the southern Great Lakes region. Steadiest rain will likely fall Wednesday evening and night before drier, colder air works in here to close the work week.

Despite a widespread 0.50” to 1” of rain during the aforementioned time period, at least the southern 2/3 of the state will enjoy 60°+ (in some cases 70°) weather midweek. Yes, spring fever will be running rampant.

We’ll likely do this all over again late in the weekend or early next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/19/few-miles-makes-all-the-difference-this-week/

Feb 09

MJO And Other Drivers Aligning For Cold Close To Meteorological Winter; Open To Spring?

Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p

After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:

Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.

With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:

Negative NAO:

Negative WPO:

Negative AO:

Negative EPO:

Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.

Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:

MJO Phase 8: Feb

MJO Phase 8: March

Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/09/mjo-and-other-drivers-aligning-for-cold-close-to-meteorological-winter-open-to-spring/

Jan 23

Monday Evening Notes On Upcoming Snowstorm; Additional “Wintry Mischief” On Deck…

Updated 01.23.23 @ 6:01p

While not “overly cold” (at least yet), we’re heading into a special pattern for snow/ winter weather lovers. After the leading wave of accumulating snow over the weekend, a much more “meaningful” storm eyes the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday.

In short, we don’t have any changes to our thinking since Saturday on this storm. Snow will lift in here from the south during the overnight and become heavy throughout the morning hours. Snowfall rates will likely approach, if not exceed, 1″ per hour during this time period and will lead to a horrendous morning rush all throughout the region. If you don’t absolutely have to travel, we recommend staying put. Embedded intense snow bands will likely pivot into the city throughout the morning, elevating those snowfall rates and reducing visibility.

Heaviest snow looks to fall in the 2a to 11a timeframe in the city, itself. This will be a wet, heavy (paste-like) snow.

We still don’t see a reason to alter our ongoing snowfall forecast published first to Clients Saturday. This is only for the Tuesday night-Wednesday period and doesn’t account for additional light snow accumulation that will take place Thursday into Friday. Needless to say, there will likely be some across central Indiana that close in on double-digit storm totals by the time all is said and done.

And just as soon as we catch our breath from this storm, attention will turn to the following winter weather makers:

  1. A clipper system that will scoot through the Great Lakes region Friday. This will likely lead to a period of more concentrated, albeit light, snow Friday PM. Additional light snow accumulation is possible across central and northern IN during this time period.

2. Another southern stream system approaches Saturday evening. While milder air will be present (at least aloft), it’s also very possible the modeling will be forced to correct colder after realizing what kind of deep snowpack will likely be deposited across the region midweek. Long story short, we feel this storm system will also be capable of producing a wintry mix of snow and/ or sleet and freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday. Additional details will have to be sorted out in more specific fashion after midweek.

Thereafter, with the negative PNA and negative EPO in place, we’re likely to deal with additional wintry “fun and games” into the middle and latter part of next week, but with this being more than 7 days out, there’s no reason getting too excited from this point with specifics.

Needless to say, we’re in about as good of a position as one could ask for accumulating winter weather events in the medium range period. We’ll just have to take one storm at a time.

Make it a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/23/monday-evening-notes-on-upcoming-snowstorm-additional-wintry-mischief-on-deck/

Jan 10

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 01.10.23 @ 7:29a I. A few showers will move through central Indiana Wednesday but these won’t amount to much and will be fast moving. The showers will be on…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/10/tuesday-morning-rambles-5/

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