Category: Weather Rambles

Mar 22

Friday Morning Rambles: More Long Range Chatter…

Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a

The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.

Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.

Day 1-5
Day 5-10
Day 10-15

Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.

Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.

A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.

Another system will follow late week and next weekend.

1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-more-long-range-chatter/

Mar 13

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Talking Storms And A Cooler Pattern To Close Out March…

Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a

Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.

A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.

We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.

Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.

Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.

As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.

More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/

Mar 03

Sunday Morning Rambles: Tracking 2 Systems This Week And More Unseasonably Warm Conditions Ahead…

Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a

A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!

Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.

Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.

The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.

Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/

Feb 27

Dinnertime Rambles: Active Night And Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 6:42p

As we write this update, severe storms are firing across northern IL where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11p (eastern). Meanwhile, all is quiet on the home front, thanks to strong “capping” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that cap likely won’t hold and we still anticipate scattered strong to severe storms to impact central and southern Indiana during the overnight.

All modes of severe weather remain on the table, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Initiation of convection across central/ southern IN should come around or just after midnight and end by 3a to 4a (west to east).

Please make sure you have a means to receive the latest severe weather alerts prior to heading to bed tonight.

By the time most are waking up Wednesday, we’ll be talking about an entirely different array of conditions. Sharply colder air, light snow showers, and strong northwesterly winds will ensure to remind folks it’s late-February, after all.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinnertime-rambles-active-night-and-sharply-colder-wednesday/

Feb 17

Islands Of Cold In A Sea Of Milder Times…

Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a

Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).

I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.

Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.

Another round of gusty winds will arrive overnight into Sunday morning, this time out of the southwest.

Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.

After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.

Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/