Category: Unseasonably Warm

Mar 05

Spring Tease In The Midst Of A Cold Pattern…

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

 Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-snow-scattered-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

17/ 32

19/ 40

25/ 55

30/ 43

25/ 44

32/ 56

39/ 56

Light

– – –

– – –

Light

– – –

– – –

– – –

Forecast Updated 03.05.14 @ 7:15a

Snow Weakens As It Pushes South…What will look like an impressive shield of snow across northern IL and IN this morning will weaken dramatically as it pushes south into central Indiana later this evening.  The primary reason?  A very dry air mass in place.  That said, we’ll continue to include scattered snow showers and light snow in our forecast, especially north of I-70 this evening.  Many won’t see any sort of accumulation, but a couple reports of a coating of snow will be possible north.  It’ll remain much colder than normal.

Moderating To Finish The Work Week…Dry conditions will return to wrap up the work week along with a warming trend.  By the time we reach Friday, we’ll actually be above normal!  Combine that with a sunny sky and we’re looking at an absolutely gorgeous close to the work week.  Plan to get out and enjoy!

Weak Weekend System…A cold front will move south through the region and be responsible for returning the area to a chillier regime over the weekend, along with a possible light snow Saturday.  Light is the key word and we’re not looking at any accumulation of significance.  Sunday returns the dry theme as we “jump ahead” an hour.

Spring Tease…Though we’re still locked in a predominately colder than normal weather pattern, that won’t stop us from enjoying a much deserved spring tease early next week.  Both Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the middle to upper 50s with sunshine!  Definitely well deserved, indeed!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Less than 1″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″

images

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

twic

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/spring-tease-in-the-midst-of-a-cold-pattern/

Feb 12

Next Week’s Spring Tease Is Just That, A “Tease…”

There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring.  That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.

Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions.  Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period.  The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place.  Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region.  10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall.  Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern.  Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up.  That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.

The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well.  The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.

gefs_z500anom_nh_33gefs_z500anom_nh_49gefs_z500anom_nh_65

Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly.  Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system.  Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point.  Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/

Dec 19

Thursday Morning Weather Rambles

As always, your latest 7-Day Video Forecast can be found to the right in the video player.   1.) A milder southerly air flow allowed us to remain above freezing…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-weather-rambles/

Dec 18

Significant Flood Situation Ahead…

Your latest 7-Day video forecast can be found in the video player to the right of this post.

We’ve known for over a week now that we’ll have to deal with a pre-Christmas storm. Latest guidance suggests our region undergoes a 3-4 day thaw with a decidedly warmer southwest flow ahead of this storm.  Additionally, with the more northern track of the surface low, we’re looking at nearly all of the precipitation associated with this storm falling as rain.  Combine our frozen ground with a significant early-season snow pack and multiple inches of rain ahead in the Thursday night through Sunday time period and the stage is set for a significant flood situation this weekend.

Here’s a look at what the latest forecast models show.  We’ve posted the GFS, Canadian, and European models below to display total rainfall between Thursday through Sunday.  The majority of this rain falls in two waves- Friday and again late Saturday into early Sunday.

gfs_total_precip_east_22cmc_precip_by10_east_1ecmwf_tprecip_indy_21

If the rainfall numbers are even half of what is projected above, we’re looking at a significant flood situation.  Needless to say, if your property is in a low-lying area, or one that is prone to flooding, I would begin to prepare now for major water rise in the days to come.

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/significant-flood-situation-ahead/

Nov 12

Wednesday Forecast: A Bitterly Cold Start

Updated 11.12.13 @ 8:50p

Zionsville, IN After waking up to half an inch of snow, sunshine engulfed most of the region Tuesday. The vitamin D didn’t help temperatures moderate much as highs were more like mid to late December as opposed to mid November. We discuss a warming trend below, after a frigid start to your Wednesday.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Mostly sunny; 19/ 39

A strong area of high pressure will move overhead Wednesday and help supply a mostly sunny sky.  Despite the sun, it’ll be another unseasonably cold day.  Many outlying communities will begin the day in the upper teens before rising into the upper 30s to near 40 by afternoon- a solid 15 degrees below normal.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 49

The same high pressure that will be directly overhead Wednesday will begin to move east Thursday. This will put our region in a southwesterly air flow and allow temperatures to begin moderating. After another cold start, highs will push towards the 50 degree mark Thursday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 52

We’ll wrap the work week up with a few more clouds and temperatures still slightly cooler than normal, though much milder than those we’re dealing with now.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday:  Turning cloudy with PM showers (0.20″); 40/ 59

Model data continues to hint at increasing clouds and the threat of afternoon light rain. We’ll initially have to overcome the dry air mass in place, but by afternoon/ evening we should have scattered showers beginning to impact central portions of the state.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSunday: Cloudy with rain likely (0.45″); 52/ 60

More widespread rain will arrive for the second half of your weekend.  Highs will approach 60 and should we see any sunshine (not looking likely at this point), temperatures could go into the lower to middle 60s. While temperatures will be much warmer we’ll have to contend with rain Sunday.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconMonday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm (0.50); 34/ 63

A strong cold front will blow through the state Monday evening. Out ahead of the front, an impressive surge of warmer and more humid air will move north and encompass central Indiana during the day. In fact, latest model data suggests dew points reach the lower 60s Monday. The combination between the warmer, more humid air in place and an impressive surge of arctic air behind the front could team up to produce a clap or two of thunder with the moderate to heavy rain threat Monday afternoon as the front moves through. Temperatures will then crash Monday night.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Scattered snow flurries; 24/ 34

The big story Tuesday will be the much colder air mass rushing into the state on strong and gusty northwest winds. Just enough moisture may linger to create the chance of scattered snow flurries.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-forecast-a-bitterly-cold-start/