Category Archives: Unseasonably Warm

PM Strong Storms…

The morning is off to a sunny, muggy, and warm start.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon, but when we look at heat indices, it’ll feel like around 100 degrees across many central IN neighborhoods.

The visible satellite shows the sunny skies in place right now, but we note the cloud deck off to the northwest.  That’s in association with a frontal boundary that will press through our region tonight.

VisA line of thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and a few of these could be strong to severe as they push to the south.  Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.  We think best chances of thunderstorms across central IN will come during the mid to late afternoon hours into the early evening.

3p

6p

1

11pThe air mass is loaded with moisture today.  In fact, precipitable water values will zoom to 2″+ this afternoon and suggest the threat of torrential rainfall with any storm that develops.

2Once to Tuesday, a MUCH cooler, drier air mass will arrive on the scene and help set up an unseasonably cool close to the month.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Stormy At Times…

Screen Shot 2016-06-19 at 10.28.38 PMHighlights:

  • Front arrives late Monday
  • Strong storms; heavy rain threat Wednesday
  • Unsettled pattern

Busy Week Ahead…The overall pattern features the mean ridge position across the Four Corners region and sets up an active NW flow for our part of the country.  It’s a pattern we need to get used to as it’ll remain intact to close the month and open July.  Challenges are present in regards to specifics with timing and track of thunderstorm complexes we’ll deal with this week, particularly Wednesday.

In the shorter term, a frontal boundary will slip into central IN Monday night and a broken band of thunderstorms will accompany it.  A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Monday evening.

Attention will then shift to Wednesday.  Ingredients are coming together to present both a severe component (damaging wind the biggest threat) and localized flash flood threat.  We’ll update our latest thinking Monday morning.

As we progress into late week, additional shower and thunderstorm complexes are possible, but we stress timing issues abound.  It’ll be a warm and humid end to the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″ (locally heavier totals)
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Mostly Dry Weekend Before Storm Chances Return…

Screen Shot 2016-06-18 at 7.53.29 AMHighlights:

  • Mostly dry and hot weekend
  • Humidity levels on the rise Sunday
  • Storm chances return

Put On That Sunscreen…High pressure will supply a beautiful open to the weekend, including mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, low humidity levels, and warm temperatures.

Our airflow will shift to the SW Sunday and help push a more humid air mass back into the state as the day progresses.  An isolated thunderstorm could accompany the return of the humid air, but for now we’ll maintain a mostly dry forecast.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive Monday evening into Tuesday as a cold front pushes in from the north.  A locally strong to severe storm is possible.  As we move forward into the middle and latter parts of next week, models suggest a rather unsettled time of things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Video Update: Stormy For Some This Afternoon…

Do we rid the morning convection and cloudiness to allow strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening?  This morning’s video has more.

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No Comments Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos