Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com! Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather. Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise! While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June. Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.
Category: Unseasonably Warm
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Jun 09
Soaking Rain Tuesday…
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
62/ 71 |
64/ 76 |
58/ 78 |
63/ 73 |
52/ 75 |
56/ 86 |
66/ 87 |
Moderate |
Light |
Light |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
A slow moving, swirling, area of low pressure will impact the central Indiana region over the course of the next couple days. This spells a more humid time of things with a deep southerly flow in place, but with all of the clouds around, expect temperatures to average below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. We’re looking at steady rains pushing northeast early Tuesday morning and sticking around for the better part of the day, including periodically heavy down pours. Rain will begin to scatter in coverage Wednesday, but the better part of the day will be wet, with continued embedded heavy rain. We continue to think widespread rainfall totals of 1-2″ is a good bet over the course of the upcoming 48 hours. Drier air will slowly begin to invade Thursday, but we can’t completely shake the shower chance. Finally, as we get set to close out the work week, a cold front will move through the area. A shower or thunderstorm is possible Friday as the front slides through, but the bigger deal will be the punch of drier, cooler air behind the boundary. This will set the stage for yet another ideal Saturday, weather-wise! Warmth and humidity will build late in the weekend and continue into the first part of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/soaking-rain-tuesday/
Jun 05
Battle Developing Mid/ Late June
As we progress into another weekend, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better for this time of year. The back half of the weekend will transition to one that’s more unsettled and feature showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. Modeling today is backing off on the heavy rain event Sunday and hitting another system coming through the pipeline Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy rain. We’ll keep an eye on things and update our forecast Friday morning. Regardless, let us worry about Sunday and you be sure to enjoy Friday and Saturday!
The pool of cool will keep things feeling might nice through the first half of the weekend, along with low humidity and plenty of sunshine!
As we look into the long range, there are some questions that arise. The questions don’t have to do with warming that’s likely to take place late week 2 (90s within reach), but just how long that ridge and associated dome of heat hangs around. The European ensembles would imply the bubbling heat ridge will stick around for a few days.
Meanwhile, it should be noted that the European weeklies disagree with its own ensemble package as they bring a cooler pattern and associated trough back into the Great Lakes and northeast region as we get set to head into the last week of June. Due to licensing issues we can’t show the European weeklies here, but they deliver quite the trough and cooler than normal air mass around, or just after, the 23rd.
Additionally, the PSD agrees and delivers a cool pattern around June 20th.
So, while we’re likely to see the hottest weather of the season so far towards Day 10, confidence of this hot weather sticking and holding is very low. Timing will have to be resolved as it always does in long range weather. Overall, what’s more likely to happen is that this will be a transient hot pattern and we flip the script to one that’s cooler than average as we go into the last week of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/battle-developing-mid-late-june/
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-update-storms-arrive-this-evening/
May 31
Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!
A beautiful weekend is underway. Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days. Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.
This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue. Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!
Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.
Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.
Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms. Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential. Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.
Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.
The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend. The European forecast model doesn’t agree.
Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-weather-chit-chat/