Category: Unseasonably Warm

Aug 26

Early Fall-Like Now, But Heat Builds…

Screen Shot 2015-08-26 at 11.04.49 PMHighlights:

  • Taste of early fall continues (for now)
  • Moisture slowly returns this weekend
  • Heat builds this weekend and grows hotter next week

After a couple days of variably cloudy skies, we should see more in the way of sunshine as we get set to wrap up the work week.  Conditions will remain unseasonably pleasant to be outdoors.

We’ll begin to transition to warmer and more humid times this weekend and with a disturbance nearby, an isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has to be included in our forecast.  Most should remain rain-free, however.

Overall dry and increasingly hot conditions will be the rule next week as ridging develops over the Great Lakes region.  Folks longing for more summer before fall truly sets in look to have their wish granted over the upcoming couple weeks ahead.

In the tropics, all eyes remain on Erika.  Though many questions remain, folks from the east coast of Florida up along the Southeast coast should remain abreast of the latest developments.  It’s likely Erika will go through a strengthening process over the next couple days.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-fall-like-now-but-heat-builds/

Aug 26

Wednesday Weather Notebook….

Refreshing: We’re off to another pleasantly cool start this morning. Also note the cooler air has been able to ooze into the southeast.     Speaking of cool, it’s been a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-weather-notebook/

Aug 24

A Word On Early September…

First and foremost, I’ll apologize in advance for a lack of posts today and go ahead and apologize for the same tomorrow.  We’ve been incredibly busy over the past couple days and as a result posting has (and will be) out of schedule until mid week.

We wanted to briefly touch on early September with this post.  (This isn’t our September forecast, as that will be posted by the end of the week).

Speaking of September, we’ve always had September as a warmer than normal month.  Despite the warm September forecast, we did initially think we may have a 2-3 day period in early September that would feature yet another pop of cooler than normal air.  That’s speaking specifically at the period around 9.3-9.5 (give or take a day or two) and after a warmer than normal stretch this weekend into early next week.  (By the way, after a warm September, we think things turn cold rather fast in October and November, but that’s for another day).

The reasoning behind our thinking of a few days of cooler air in the 9.3-9.5 time frame was from the overall pattern that is leading to Typhoon Atsani recurving in the western north Pacific.  It’s important to note that it isn’t the recurving typhoon itself, but the overall pattern that provides a good hint at what’s ahead downstream 6-10 days later- be it ridging or the tendency for “troughiness.”

wp1715However, modeling has been trending towards Atsani stalling in the north Pacific and even some data likes to drift the system northwest over time through the upcoming weekend before significant weakening.

gefs_WP17_current

 

 

Atsani

The end result here?  Much less emphasis on cool and attention that turns to a rather lengthy period of warmer than normal temperatures through the month of September, including early September.

ecm_eps_z500a_conus_11Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-word-on-early-september/

Aug 23

Fall Feel Arrives Tonight…

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 5.09.30 PMHighlights:

  • MUCH cooler than normal, fall feel blows into town
  • Dry week ahead
  • Moisture and warmth returns for the weekend

A cold front is on the doorstep this evening and will sweep through the region tonight.  Ahead of the front we’ll maintain mention of a shower or thunderstorm, but the band of storms coming through will be “broken” and everyone won’t get wet.  A MUCH cooler feel will blow into town tonight and remain intact through the balance of the work week ahead- a downright fall feel.  Winds will be breezy Monday afternoon out of the northwest.

Moisture and warmth will return as we head into the upcoming weekend along with an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chance.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” captures storm clouds gathering to the west as a cold front moves into town.  This image was snapped around 4:15p Sunday evening.CNHqAMuUYAAqzB3

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/fall-feel-arrives-tonight/

Aug 22

Saturday Morning: A Look Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date.  As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.

* Click on any image to enlarge.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August precipitation departure- month-to-date

August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:

2015 to date has been cool central and east:

4The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging.  It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO).  Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…

10Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east.  It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.

11As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening.  A few of these storms could reach strong levels.  The culprit?  Another strong late August cold front.  Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.

5Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.

6

7Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.

3We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.

9However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…

8Images credited to the following:

  • weatherbell.com
  • http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
  • http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#seasonMaps

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-a-look-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/