Category: Unseasonably Warm

Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

Highlights:

  • Stormy Wednesday
  • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
  • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
  • Busy times return next week

Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-potential-of-a-busy-severe-weather-day/

Topsy-Turvy Forecast…

Highlights:

  • Strong-severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday
  • Turning colder to close the week with snow showers
  • Beautiful weekend ahead

Changeable Weather…The region will be in between storm systems Tuesday.  We think clouds will hang tough and the storms from overnight will move off to the east.  In place, scattered showers will dot the north-central Indiana landscape especially through the morning hours.

A new storm system will take aim on the region Wednesday and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.  Many questions remain in regards to instability, but shear will be plentiful and we’ll have to keep a close eye on future developments over the next 24-36 hours.  Stay tuned.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for super cells to develop especially across southern Indiana.  We’ll transition from storms to more of a wintry-like feel Thursday and Friday and continue to think the air will grow cold enough to support mention of wet snowflakes mixing with the rain by Thursday evening into Friday morning.

As we flip the page into the weekend, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and support increasingly sunny conditions.  After a cold and frosty start Saturday morning, temperatures will rebound nicely under that strong early-April sunshine.

Our next storm system won’t begin to impact the region until Sunday afternoon (increasing southwest winds) and Monday (scattered showers and thunderstorms).

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/topsy-turvy-forecast/

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Showers moved through the region early this morning and we’ll go through several dry hours before dealing with our next round of rain and thunderstorms by evening.  Most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms appears to come in the 5p-7p range.

2.)  We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday.  A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so.  We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.

3.)  We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow.  Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.

4.)  Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend.  Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions.  After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-3/

Quiet Weekend Gives Way To An Active Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Nice weekend
  • Rain returns Sunday night-Monday
  • Strong storm potential Wednesday PM
  • Cold close to the week

Sunshine Should Make An Appearance Today…The weekend is opening chilly, including wind chills around freezing this morning.  Hang in there- sunshine should at least make an appearance later on this afternoon and Sunday certainly looks to be a brighter day, overall, before clouds increase late and give way to showers overnight into Monday morning.

We’re back to sunshine Tuesday before a stronger storm begins to impact the state Wednesday.  A rather robust area of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night and help pull a briefly warmer, increasingly moist air mass into the area.  Potential is present for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening into the nighttime.  We’ll then transition to a much cooler regime to close the week and with low pressure slowly pivoting through the Ohio Valley, showers will continue Thursday into Friday.  In fact, the air may grow cold enough to allow for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain by Friday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.75″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-weekend-gives-way-to-an-active-work-week/

Looking Ahead Into Early April…

Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running near seasonal norms from a temperature standpoint (0.50° above normal).  Chill has dominated the northern tier and eastern third of the country.

Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date.  Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.

A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:

As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist.  This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either.  There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.

By Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, shower chances will begin to increase and that will set the stage for a wet close to the work week as numerous showers and embedded thunder move across the region Thursday into Friday.  This is courtesy of a storm system “bowling” through to our south.  This won’t be a severe weather maker for our neck of the woods, but will serve to create a rather damp and gloomy regime during the aforementioned period.

However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend.  Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.

That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period.  This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame.  From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.

Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average).  Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month.  With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month.  Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-into-early-april/