Jun 26
This evening’s video update discusses the building heat and humidity into the holiday week, but also hits on the need to include daily storm chances in our extended forecast, as…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/26/video-heat-and-humidity-build-this-weekend-cant-rule-out-storms-either/
Jun 25
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/25/video-storm-chances-return-big-heat-looms/
Jun 24
As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/checking-in-no-changes-to-expected-significant-4th-of-july-heat-wave/
Jun 24
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/video-gorgeous-second-half-of-the-weekend-storm-chances-return/
Jun 23
Saturday will feature unseasonably refreshing conditions as we’ll remain under the influence of an area of low pressure tracking off to our northeast. Look for considerable cloudiness today along with highs around 10° below average. Enjoy it as significant heat looms late next week.
Sunshine will increase for the second half of the weekend and highs will respond- mid 80s after a refreshing start Sunday morning.
High pressure will briefly build in and control our weather through the early part of the new week. An attempt of a thunderstorm complex to impact central Indiana Monday should be thwarted by a drier air mass in place. That said, moisture will increase Tuesday and beyond and a more active regime will return. Multiple thunderstorm complexes (some heavy) will rumble across the Ohio Valley and Mid West Tuesday through Thursday.
While it’ll certainly turn more humid through midweek, the rain and storms will keep temperatures at seasonable levels. All of that changes once to Thursday and Friday as a building ridge of high pressure expands across the Ohio Valley.
This will limit rain chances and potentially offer up the hottest air of the summer. We expect 5-6 days of low-mid 90s for highs and oppressive overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Thankfully, the hot dome will retrograde west and lead to “less hot” and increasingly stormy conditions after the first week of July. An active northwest flow pattern will take hold and provide an active time of things during this period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/23/another-active-week-ahead/
Jun 22
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/22/video-stormy-close-to-the-week-july-chatter/
Jun 21
While cooler and wetter conditions dominate now, thoughts are shifting ahead to the all-important 4th of July time period.
Models are in relative agreement that a sprawling upper level ridge will park itself over the Ohio Valley, leading to a higher than normal confidence for a medium to longer term forecast period.
The end result would be anomalous heat and a drier pattern, as a whole, as we transition through the early stages of July. Heat to the magnitude of what we experienced last weekend isn’t off the table with such a similar pattern.
Looking ahead, thankfully, one of our more trusted longer range computer models (JMA Weeklies), shows the pattern relaxing as we move into mid-July. The model shows the heat backing west and a more active northwest flow (wetter pattern) returning here…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/21/early-july-heat-wave/
Jun 18
A cold front will sink south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon before stalling out through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.
Unsettled weather returns as a frontal boundary stalls out across the region into the upcoming weekend.
Rain and storm chances will increase in overall coverage and intensity as we move into Tuesday- particularly during the afternoon hours. With precipitable water values exceeding 2″ at times, locally heavy downpours can be expected.
Despite cooler (still mighty humid) temperatures arriving, the overall pattern won’t change significantly into late week and this weekend. With the frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley, periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. At times, disturbances will track along the boundary and lead to increased coverage of storms. Perhaps Thursday and Friday will serve up the greatest coverage of thunderstorms as a surface wave moves out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes.
The combination of a juicy air mass and a stationary boundary draped overhead spells a flash flood risk. The lack of any sort of overall steering current suggests the potential of thunderstorms that may train over the same communities at times. As mentioned earlier, precipitable water values (PWATS) will approach and exceed 2″ and this will support torrential downpours at times.
Officially, we think the upcoming 7-day period will deal out widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms train.
After a dry few days with exceptional heat, the unsettled and cooler pattern, overall, will be welcomed with open arms!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/18/stormy-pattern-returns-localized-flash-flood-threat-emerges/
Jun 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/18/video-heat-gives-way-to-increasing-storm-chances/
Jun 16
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/16/fathers-day-weekend-heat-wave-turning-unsettled-next-week/