Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/tuesday-morning-video-heavy-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-wintry-threat-late-weekend-for-some/
Feb 04
+ AO Supports Current Warmth; Active Pattern Shows No Signs Of Letting Up Into Early March…
After the record-setting cold that gripped the Mid West and Ohio Valley for a few days, the recent “spring fling” has been welcomed with open arms by many! There are multiple reasons behind the warmth, especially with such a strong Arctic Oscillation (AO) in place.
We note the strongly positive AO (image 1) and the respective temperature anomalies that should result (image 2).
To no surprise, model data is bullish on the southeastern ridge holding firm this week.
The resistance put forth by the southeast ridge, combined with the renewed arctic air building across the Northern Rockies/ Northern Plains will continue to yield a very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. We expect precipitation to remain well above normal through month’s end, continuing into early March.
As we look ahead, we note modeling is trending the AO neutral and negative for mid and late month.
As this is taking place, the MJO is forecast to swing into Phase 8.
Phase 8 in mid to late February is a very cold phase.
Should the AO continue to trend negative, that will only raise confidence that cold will return.
Warmth (relative to normal) will continue to rule the day through midweek before we go into more of a transitional period this weekend into next week. Though certainly colder than this week, I’m not quite ready to buy into the idea that the southeast ridge will go quietly into the night. A couple of winter threats loom late weekend into next week, but confidence is low in the specifics. It’s when we get to the last (2) weeks of the month that we think cold will regain control, along with more widespread wintry threats of significance…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/04/ao-supports-current-warmth-active-pattern-shows-no-signs-of-letting-up-into-early-march/
Feb 04
Monday Morning Video: Heavy Rain And Freezing Rain Potential Grabs The Headlines…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/04/monday-morning-video-heavy-rain-and-freezing-rain-potential-grabs-the-headlines/
Feb 03
Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Stormy Pattern Shifts To A Return Of Significant Cold?
In the short-term, there’s no getting around the very active pattern in place. As we’ve been discussing, we’ll find ourselves “smack dab” in the middle of a battle ground between a stubborn southeast ridge and building cold to our northwest. The fight in between will yield well above normal precipitation over the next couple of weeks.
Over the upcoming (10) days, expect a roller coaster ride in the temperature department as the battle takes place. While the most anomalous warmth is taking place now (IND is on pace to set a new record high temperature before the end of the day), relative warmth will continue to dominate into midweek before colder air presses and wins out.
After Monday’s light rain, we’re targeting (3) opportunities for significant precipitation across the region:
I. Tuesday night-Wednesday (still may include a risk of freezing rain across north-central communities).
II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning
III. Thursday night-Friday morning (ending as light snow)
When all is said and done, model data is in agreement on significant rainfall totals across central Indiana (2″ to 3″ amounts will be common by Friday).
Thereafter, confidence is high on colder air returning as we close the week and head into next weekend.
Guidance suggests that we still need to remain abreast of the potential of a more widespread wintry event late next weekend and this is something we’ll continue to keep close tabs on as we progress through the upcoming week. As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a major event, but stay tuned.
As we look ahead, we’ll have to continue keeping a close eye on the MJO. Today’s update shows the majority of data swinging things into Phase 8 by mid to late month. Should that come to fruition, prospects of another significant cold spell loom large…
Fun times ahead- no matter how you look at it! 🙂
Enjoy the game!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/03/pre-super-bowl-rambles-stormy-pattern-shifts-to-a-return-of-significant-cold/
Feb 03
Sunday Morning Video Update: Walking Through The Active Week Ahead; Looking Towards Mid-Feb…
A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/03/sunday-morning-video-update-walking-through-the-active-week-ahead-looking-towards-mid-feb/
Feb 02
Plot Thickens With The MJO…
There’s a lot of interest (no matter the time of year) in the medium to long range weather pattern. With operational modeling updating up to (4) times per day during this time range, there’s always at least some degree of fluctuation between model runs. At times, that fluctuation is more significant than others. It’s at those times when it’s more important than ever to lean on analogs, teleconnections, and other pattern drivers.
Recall that the MJO has been hyper active for the better part of this season- and has played a significant role in the winter pattern through the 1st half of this season. When the MJO features significant amplitude, it’s imperative that we pay close attention.
With that said, we note today that the models handle the current MJO pulse much differently between one another over the next couple of weeks.
For example, let’s go with the GEFS (image 1), curling the MJO into Phase(s) 6 and 7. From a temperature perspective, this is how that would be reflected at the surface
With that said, the European is more bullish heading into Phase 8 by mid-February. If correct, that opens the door for more significant (and widespread) cold.
We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on the MJO over the next week, or so, and hope for better overall agreement between the data. However, given a balance of current teleconnections, SSTs, and MJO, we continue to believe the pattern over the next few weeks will transition from a “battle zone” initially towards one that features cold overwhelming the region by mid-month.
There will likely be rather wild temperature swings through the first 1/3 of the month and that will help power the active pattern. At the end of the day, we expect well above normal precipitation, near-average to slightly colder than normal temperatures, and above average snowfall during the month of February here across central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/02/plot-thickens-with-the-mjo/
Feb 02
Timing Out Storms In What Will Be A Very Active Upcoming Couple Weeks…
This morning’s video update takes a closer look at the individual storm systems that have our attention over the upcoming 10-14 days. We continue to expect our neck of the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/02/timing-out-storms-in-what-will-be-a-very-active-upcoming-couple-weeks/
Feb 01
6-10 Day Update: Active Times Ahead…
While we’re in the process of pulling out of the bitterly cold air mass, there’s no shortage of action when we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks.
Confidence remains high that the upcoming short-term period (Days 2-6) will flip to much warmer than average. A couple days that at least flirt with the 60 degree mark can be expected Sunday and Monday.
While rain will return to the forecast Monday, the milder air sure will be a nice change of pace from the bitterness of the past several days. Enjoy it!
With that said, there are continued indications that the warmth won’t hold.
As we look at the latest medium range ensemble guidance (Days 6-10), the GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement.
We note this is a pattern conducive for above normal precipitation during the period. With cold air likely to be “pressing” towards the region, it’s a pattern that has to raise an eyebrow for at least the potential of a wintry threat during this time frame. There should be plenty of low level cold air available late next week and next weekend. With the resistance shown from the SE ridge, potential “fun and games” are on the table during this timeframe as waves of energy likely ride along a slow (at times stalled) frontal boundary.
Keep an eye on the 2/7 through 2/10 window for possible wintry impacts, locally…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/01/6-10-day-update-active-times-ahead/
Feb 01
Snow Moves Out; Time To Look Ahead…
Snow is on the way out, but not after dumping a quick 3″ to 4″ for northern suburbs and other parts of north-central Indiana. As we look ahead, the moderating…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/01/snow-moves-out-time-to-look-ahead/
Jan 30
Bitter Now; Accumulating Snow Inbound Tomorrow Evening…
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