Category: Unseasonably Warm

Feb 11

No Rest For The Weary; Reviewing The New European Weeklies…

In the short-term, rainfall will increase in overall coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight and on into Tuesday morning.

Most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate between 0.50″ and 1.00″ tonight into Tuesday morning. Heavier amounts will be found downstate.

We continue to closely monitor the precise track of vigorous upper level energy that will result in a narrow, but more intense, band of snow Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. While temperatures will be marginal, it wouldn’t shock us in the least by a wet 1″ to 2″ stripe of snow that’s laid down in a narrow southwest to northeast corridor and this will warrant close attention with subsequent model updates overnight. An early idea of where this may be is below:

Regardless of where this potentially more significant snowband lies, all of us will get in on the “backlash” snow showers/ squall action Tuesday evening and night.

Looking ahead, continued active times loom. We’re tracking additional storms Thursday night into Friday and again over the upcoming weekend. Yet another storm is slated for an arrival early parts of the following week. As cold air continues to get more involved, these storm systems will be plenty capable of dealing out more in the way of wintry “fun and games,” but the pattern is “hectic” right now and each storm will have to be dealt with as they come. Understanding that it’s still in the 6-10 day time period, the storm early next week seems to have the greatest potential of widespread wintry implications of significance. This is given the overall pattern evolution away from the “transitional” period we’re currently in and squarely inside the cold/ wintry window we’ve been outlining from 2/18 through 3/10. Time will tell…

European Weeklies

The new European Weeklies show the cold currently confined to the PAC NW and northern Plains “spreading out” and encompassing a more widespread portion of the country- especially from the Appalachians and points west (but periodically making it as far east as the coast). The cold is forecast by the model to dive deep into the southern Plains and into the Southeast as we move into the latter parts of February into early March. Perhaps the biggest change from tonight’s update from Thursday is the idea that the cold will linger deeper into March than previously thought. (Please note this doesn’t change our current *official* idea of cold lifting by mid-month, but simply just rehashing model output). Let’s see if we can get some consistency to develop before altering our current forecast.

From a teleconnection stand point, the model does take the NAO neutral to negative late Feb into early March before returning things solidly positive by mid-month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/11/no-rest-for-the-weary-reviewing-the-new-european-weeklies/

Feb 10

All-Access Sunday Evening Video Update…

Another busy weather week is dialed up for central Indiana, including flooding and accumulating snow. We also look ahead to late month and early March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/10/all-access-sunday-evening-video-update/

Feb 09

Saturday Morning All-Access Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/09/saturday-morning-all-access-video-update/

Feb 08

Cold Weekend Gives Way To Another Busy Week Of Weather…

It’s feeling just a little bit different across the region this morning- to the tune of more than 30 degrees colder than this time 24 hours ago. Cold extends south all the way to Brownsville Texas. Speaking of Texas, wintry precipitation is flying across the Hill Country this morning…

Back here on the home front, cold is the story this weekend. Highs may creep into the lower 20s this afternoon, but wind chill values will remain in the single digits below zero to 5 above through the day. Light snow showers will end and we’ll introduce more in the way of sunshine through the afternoon.

Dry conditions will remain through Sunday morning, but a storm system will organize to our southwest, eventually delivering moisture into central Indiana Sunday afternoon into the evening. We remain unimpressed with this feature, but light snow is a good bet during this timeframe. Early thinking would deliver between a coating to an inch and there’s also the potential of a light “glaze” atop the snow Sunday night as milder air aloft begins to win out.

“Dueling” low pressure systems will lead to continued unsettled conditions through Tuesday. The initial low will track into the Great Lakes while a secondary area of low pressure forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The end result will be a briefly milder time of things and periods of rain Monday afternoon and Tuesday (0.50″ to 1″ amounts) before cold air whips back in here Wednesday.

Lingering left over moisture will fall as scattered snow showers in the sharply colder air Wednesday.

Our next storm system will deserve a watchful eye in the Thursday-Friday time frame, but it’s far too early for specifics in this hectic pattern.


The active pattern is set to remain, along with progressively colder air as we rumble into the 2nd half of February. Above normal precipitation is anticipated, including above normal snowfall in the 2/18 through 3/10 period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/08/cold-weekend-gives-way-to-another-busy-week-of-weather/

Feb 08

Long Range Discussion: Window Opens For A Return Of Winter, But This Isn’t Last Year…

The stage is set for winter’s return. With that said, the upcoming week will likely feature a “transitional” time of things before winter returns with more authority during the 2/18 through 3/10 time period.

While the positive AO will continue to be heard from in the more immediate term (forcing the active storm track into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes), this should eventually give way to a negative AO by mid and late month. Factor in a Phase 8 of the MJO and developing negative NAO and winter weather lovers will likely have a 2-3 week period of “fun and games,” including the potential of a couple significant events, along with well below normal cold late February and early March.

That said, this isn’t last year. Recall it was around this time that we were initially “faked out” by a wintry February when in all actuality it was a case of delayed, but not denied, with the worst of winter (relative to average, and in the means from a snow perspective) occurring in March and April. There are growing indications that we should actually have a spring this year, but more on that at a later time. 🙂

Let’s take a look at some of the latest long range modeling, starting with teleconnections first (always the basis of a long range forecast).

Simply put, the GEFS teleconnections line up for a return of colder than normal conditions during the middle to latter part of February. We love to see the agreement in the teleconnection states (trending negative AO (image 1) and NAO (image 3) and trending positive PNA (image 2)).

The latest European Weeklies would also agree. Note the strongly positive AO (image 1 below) at present dips negative during the 2nd half of February.

The European Weeklies like the idea of the PNA at least getting to neutral late month into early March.

  • Also of importance is what the Weeklies do with both teleconnections by mid-March (this would support a warmer pattern, overall).
  • Since we’re talking about the European Weeklies, while we can’t show the model output itself, it should be noted the model does deliver cold back into the region in rather widespread fashion during the last couple of weeks of February and into the first week of March.

Other model data paints a similar picture as noted below between the GEFS and CFSv2 Weeklies:

Days 5–15
Days 15-25
Days 20-30

But, like other data would suggest, the CFSv2 is also in agreement that as early March gives way to the middle of the month, warmer times loom…

Days 30-40

(In the event you missed it this morning, we reviewed the updated JMA Weeklies earlier here).

The latest MJO update continues to back up the idea of colder times returning mid and late February, continuing into early March, as noted below. Remember, this time of year, Phases 8 and 1 are colder phases for our neck of the woods.

To summarize, we expect this upcoming week to begin the transition back towards an overall colder and increasingly busy time of things from a wintry perspective. Those will snow removal interests should anticipate above average snowfall during the 2/18 through 3/10 time frame. The aforementioned period also should run colder than average, as well. However, those tired of winter, hang in there- hope is on the horizon once to mid-March and we should actually enjoy a pleasant spring this year after missing out in ’18!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/08/long-range-discussion-window-opens-for-a-return-of-winter-but-this-isnt-last-year/

Feb 07

Thursday Afternoon All-Access Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/thursday-afternoon-all-access-video-update/

Feb 07

Dissecting Today’s Severe Potential; Winter Returns & Looking More In-depth At The New JMA Weeklies…

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has significantly expanded the “slight risk” area to include a large portions of the state.


While a fresh batch of heavy rain will move into central Indiana later this morning (another 1″ to 2″ is a good bet for most communities), the focus shifts to a window where severe thunderstorms will be possible during the early to mid afternoon.

A warm front will lift north through central IN late morning and this will allow relatively warm and moist air to briefly surge as far north as a Logansport to Fort Wayne line.

Note dew points will spike to 60 to 63 degrees over much of central and eastern IN this afternoon.

It’s during the 1p to 5p window when we’re most concerned for the chance of a few severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds are of greatest concern, but anytime you have a warm front hanging around central Indiana with these kinds of setups, the potential of a tornado is in the back of your mind. I don’t foresee this being a major tornado outbreak whatsoever, but parameters do suggest the chance of a quick spin-up tornado is present, as well during this timeframe.

The cold front will crash into Indianapolis between 4p and 5p and you’ll certainly know it.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will blow sharply cold air into the region this evening and tonight. In fact, highs in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon will be into the 20s before midnight. Lows Friday morning will fall into the 10s and highs Friday will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the single digits most of the day.

After a dry open to the weekend, we continue to monitor the potential of a light wintry event Sunday into early Monday. This doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but the chance is there for an inch or two of snow for portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley during this timeframe.

Additional challenges await early and mid next week, but we’ll save those for updates later this afternoon or evening.

JMA Weeklies

The updated JMA Weeklies are in and in short suggest the southeast ridge continues to put up a fight over the next couple of weeks before getting “squashed” in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe.

This is in line with our thinking of the “transitional” period beginning this upcoming week. We think cold will begin to “push,” but isn’t ready to lock-in as of yet. There will be cold readily available to present more of a wintry potential with storms that track through the region when compared to this week, but we think it’s the period from 2/17 through early March that has the capability of featuring more sustained cold.

That’s a strong signal being painted by the JMA Weeklies in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe for widespread cold. Given that the MJO is forecast to swing into Phase 8 by this timeframe, along with the NAO/ AO looking to dip negative, the widespread cold look is a good idea to us during this particular time period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/dissecting-todays-severe-potential-winter-returns-looking-more-in-depth-at-the-new-jma-weeklies/

Feb 06

From Strong Storm Potential To Late Weekend Snow; Updated Long Range Thoughts…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/06/from-strong-storm-potential-to-late-weekend-snow-updated-long-range-thoughts/

Feb 06

Wednesday Morning Video Update: Heavy Rain & Severe Threat Give Way To Much Colder Air And A Potential Late Weekend Winter Event…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/06/wednesday-morning-video-update-heavy-rain-severe-threat-give-way-to-much-colder-air-and-a-potential-late-weekend-winter-event/

Feb 05

Whole Lot Of Weather Going On…

There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.

Heavy Rain

We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:

I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday evening

In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).

The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.

Sharply Colder

The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.

Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?

The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.

Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/whole-lot-of-weather-going-on/

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