Feb 25
The potential of another high wind event this weekend is on the table and we look ahead to a much colder than average open to March…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/all-access-video-does-another-high-wind-event-loom-this-weekend/
Feb 24
Top wind gusts today have reached 66 MPH at IND with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout the northern half of Indiana.
As we look ahead through the upcoming week, a couple of rather minor systems may deal light precipitation to the area, but it’s what lies ahead next weekend that’s already drawing interest. Unfortunately, modeling is trying it’s best for a “repeat” high wind event next Saturday.
The overall setup is eerily similar as a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. This setup would once again support 50+ MPH gusts.
With the pattern change underway at this point, colder air will be more readily available and backside snow may be more “meaningful” next weekend. That’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Winter weather enthusiasts will have a couple of weeks of at least being on the playing field for the possibility of late season accumulating snow, but it continues to look like that window closes quickly by mid-March as a true spring pattern takes hold.
For those who watch the operational data with each and every update (sometimes as much as 4 times per day)- tread with caution. While significant late season winter storms can result from such a pattern change that’s underway, it’s impossible to worry about specifics in this type of regime until within 4-6 days.
It would appear the pattern would support potential “fun and games” next Saturday, the 2nd, and possibly again in the March 5th-6th time frame.
Enjoy it while you have it, lovers of winter… Signals continue to point towards a significant shift to warmer times for the 2nd half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/24/potential-wintry-mischief-through-early-march-late-month-changes/
Feb 24
Is another damaging wind event on the horizon next weekend?
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/24/sunday-morning-video-repeat-next-weekend/
Feb 23
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/23/saturday-afternoon-video-update-damaging-winds-develop-late-tonight-more-conversation-around-the-march-pattern/
Feb 21
Recently, a “transient” pattern has dominated. This has kept any sort of long-lasting cold at bay and resulted in above normal precipitation. As we get set to close out February and welcome in a new month, a pattern change is on the horizon.
This overall shift in the pattern will drive a more sustained and significantly colder than normal regime southeast. In short, cold is set to “overwhelm” the pattern through the first couple of weeks of March. In the most extreme case (especially if we can get snow down), we will be able to challenge records at some point during the 1st (10) days of the month.
In spite of a neutral to positive AO and NAO, a significantly negative EPO and MJO rumbling through the cold late Feb and early March phases look to trump the otherwise warm signals. We also can’t forget about the significant SOI crash. Let’s dig into some of the latest data:
CFSv2
Note the modeling spreading the cold out during the Weeks 2-3 time period before gradually modifying things as we move into the middle and latter portion of March. The mean storm track shifts to the east during the first couple of weeks of the month (pattern will likely be dominated by more snow vs. rain events during this time period) before wetter than normal conditions return for the 2nd half of the month.
JMA Weeklies
Like the CFSv2, the model overwhelms the pattern with cold during the Week 2 time period. Also similar to the CFSv2, the JMA Weeklies bring ridging back into the East and associated warmth by mid-month. While we haven’t included the precipitation anomalies in this post, the model does bring wetter than normal conditions back into the area by mid-March.
European Weeklies
The NEW European Weeklies remain consistent from Monday’s update (and data above) in delivering a very cold 1st half of March. The core of the cold looks to be centered over the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, but temperatures for the balance of the first couple weeks of the month will likely resemble what we’d expect in late January or early February vs. March. While precipitation will likely run below normal (thanks to the cold pattern), the model deliver above normal snowfall during the period. As we move into the 2nd half of the month, warmer (and wetter) conditions are shown to return.
Given all of the above, we expect the primary upper air pattern to feature a central and eastern trough through the 1st half of March before that trough settles into the West during the 2nd half of the month. This will open up the eastern portion of the country for not only warmer air, but a return of moisture-laden storm systems and the potential of strong-severe storms at times.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/21/all-access-long-range-update-walking-through-march/
Feb 21
Strong to severe storms arrive Saturday and then potentially damaging wind gusts impact the region Sunday. Pattern change looms as we welcome in March…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/21/morning-video-update-strong-storms-saturday-give-way-to-potential-damaging-wind-gusts-sunday-pattern-change-on-deck/
Feb 20
While arriving later than originally expected (recall we originally thought the cold, wintry pattern would start on the 18th), it sure appears as if this was a case of “delayed, but not denied.”
The latest GFS and European ensembles are keying in on a significant pattern change as we put a wrap on February and open March. (Looks like we were about a week early in jumping on the cold bandwagon).
First and foremost, there’s excellent overall agreement amongst data (increases confidence significantly during the medium to long range period).
Days 1-5: Southeast ridge continues to dominate during the short-term period and there’s no high-latitude blocking to speak of. This suggests storms will continue to “cut” northwest of the region and place central Indiana in the “warm” sector, with transient, backlash cold/ snow potential.
Days 6-10: Significant changes begin to take place as heights (ridging) builds across AK. This is important as it can help “dislodge” late season cold air (and send it southeast). The SE ridge is also in the process of getting squashed during this period. We’ll likely transition away from the moisture-laden storm systems and replace with faster, overall weaker, systems that will be more capable of producing wintry precipitation.
Days 12-16: A total transformation of the pattern has taken shape since the Day 1-5 period. The new ‘mean’ trough position takes up shop across the East with the AK ridge continuing to dislocate late season arctic air southeast. The GEFS also shows a reflection of a southwest ridge which can be helpful in the overall storm track that could potentially deliver more “meaningful” wintry systems across the OH and TN Valleys as we get into the first couple weeks of meteorological spring.
Side notes: We’ve reviewed the crashing SOI index and this increases our confidence in a much colder pattern developing (typically takes place around 10-12 days after the crash begins). We’ve noted the deeply negative values against the base state which would suggest the cold pattern should continue for some time. We still believe the pattern remains colder than average, overall, through the 1st half of March.
The latest deeply negative EPO adds fuel to the fire in the idea of a cold open to March.
Given this, there should be no surprise to see the cold anomalies showing up on the latest medium-long range ensemble guidance:
It sure appears March will come in like a lion; will it go out like a lamb?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/20/it-was-a-case-of-delayed-but-not-denied/
Feb 20
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/20/morning-video-update-stormy-saturday-gives-way-to-very-strong-winds-sunday-looking-ahead-to-march/
Feb 19
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/evening-video-update-snow-storms-and-a-major-pattern-shift-on-the-horizon/
Feb 19
A “thump” of sleet and snow will give way to strong storm potential Saturday. Looking ahead, winter appears to make a comeback during the 1st half of March…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/tuesday-morning-video-update-from-snow-to-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-march/