Category: Unseasonably Warm

Jul 15

Barry’s Moisture Arrives; Dangerous Heat Builds And More On The Cool Pattern To Close The Month…

The remnant circulation of what at one time was Hurricane Barry is over north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri as of Monday evening.

As you might imagine, this is helping pull juicy tropical air northbound. Note precipitable water values are exceeding 2″ now as far north as central Illinois and southwestern Indiana.

Rich, tropical air will continue to surge north and spread over central Indiana tonight and Tuesday. While we still don’t anticipate a widespread uniform soaking rain across central parts of the state, this will help lead to locally heavy downpours in scattered fashion over the upcoming 24-36 hours.

Precipitable water values will exceed 2″ Tuesday across most of the state.

In general, we still think most central Indiana rain gauges will accumulate between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain as Barry’s remnant moisture scoots across the state. That said, there will be locally heavier totals. Latest data continues to not only hint at these heavier totals being located across southeast portions of the state, but perhaps across northwest Indiana, as well.

Once we dry things out (through the day Wednesday) the big story will become the heat and humidity. A 5-day stretch of dangerously hot, humid conditions will claim headlines during the period Thursday through Monday, featuring overnight lows between 75-80 and daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s.

Thankfully, there are drivers that will result in a rather significant pattern change by early parts of next week. A “game changer” of a cold front is expected to sweep across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday with gusty storms followed by much cooler conditions as we head into Week 2. These cooler temperatures are expected to carry the day as we put a wrap on the month of July. We’ll replace highs in the lower to middle 90s with upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of the late month stretch.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/15/barrys-moisture-arrives-dangerous-heat-builds-and-more-on-the-cool-pattern-to-close-the-month/

Jul 15

VIDEO: Dealing With Barry’s Remnant Moisture; What’s Beyond The Heat Wave?

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Jul 13

VIDEO: What Does The 2nd Half Of July Have In Store?

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Jul 13

Barry Moves Inland; Pattern Progression Into Late July…

Tropical Storm Barry will make landfall today along the central LA coast as a strong tropical storm or hurricane (further strengthening is likely before making landfall later today). Gusts along the LA coast already this morning have reached 81 MPH. Once inland, the biggest concern with Barry’s remnants will come from a heavy rain and flooding situation. The heaviest rainfall will fall to the east of the center of circulation, encompassing central and eastern LA, western MS, eastern AR, and into western TN.

While Barry’s moisture will get into central Indiana early next week, we continue to believe the steady, heavier rainfall will remain across southern portions of the state. Overall, we don’t see any reason to alter our ongoing idea of where the heaviest axis of rain will set up shop. Tuesday into Wednesday appears to be the wettest period for the Ohio Valley from Barry. It’s possible a good portion of southern IN into central and southern OH receives 1″ to 2″ of rain with locally heavier totals during this time period. Understanding we’re talking about tropical remnants still roughly 72-84 hours away, some additional tweaking is likely to the forecast rainfall numbers.

Once Barry’s remnants exit to the east, the heat will be the big story for the 2nd half of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s can be expected as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region.

As we look beyond next week, the pattern should promote the axis of the ridge retrograding west. This would put the Ohio Valley in a more active northwest upper air flow, resulting in a backing off of the extreme heat and better rain/ storm chances as we progress through the last week of the month.

More later this afternoon with our video update! Enjoy your Saturday morning, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/13/barry-moves-inland-pattern-progression-into-late-july/

Jul 12

VIDEO: Updated Thoughts On Barry; Heat Wave Gets Underway Late Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/12/video-updated-thoughts-on-barry-heat-wave-gets-underway-late-next-week/

Jul 11

Barry Forms In The Gulf; What’s At Stake For The Ohio Valley?

Barry has officially formed in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. As of the 5p (eastern time) advisory, he remains very disorganized with 40 MPH winds and a pressure of 1003 mb. With that said, conditions remain conducive for strengthening over the upcoming 24-36 hours and it’s still very possible that Barry makes landfall as a minimal hurricane along the central Louisiana Gulf Coast Saturday morning.

Visible satellite shows a disorganized Barry churning away in the north-central Gulf this evening. With that said, strengthening is forecast over the upcoming 24-36 hours.

Computer model guidance is in very good agreement in brining Barry ashore along the central LA coast and then tracking inland through eastern LA and AR before “curling” through SE MO, southern IL and on into southern portions of the Ohio Valley during the early to middle part of next week.

While confidence continues to rise on at least portions of the Ohio Valley getting in on the heavy rain from Barry’s remnants, we caution that there will inevitably be tweaks ahead to the forecast.

The brunt of the heavy rain/ wind will be on the eastern side of Barry as he makes landfall this weekend, and continue to the be the case as the remnants move north. As the system makes the turn to the east, the greatest heavy rain threat will be associated on the southern side of the system.

With that said, from this distance (still 5 days out from OHV impacts) the greatest concern for heavy rain once inland will run from eastern LA and AR, western TN, KY, and southern IN/ OH. Most of the significant impacts are expected to remain south of Indianapolis from this distance.

Within this highlighted zone above, rainfall amounts of 4″ to 8″ seem likely from LA, AR, and into western TN. Amounts of 1″ to locally 3″ will be possible across far southern IN and OH.

We don’t envision having to deal with wind issues up this way.

Once Barry’s remnants depart, the hottest air of the season will build in across the Ohio Valley by the 2nd half of next week. This will be one of those “pathetically hot” air masses, featuring overnight lows of 75-80 (not a typo) and daytime highs in the middle 90s. Yes, heat indices over 105 can be expected. (Much more on the long range pattern, including expected cool down, can be expected in the morning).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/11/barry-forms-in-the-gulf-whats-at-stake-for-the-ohio-valley/

Jul 11

VIDEO: Tropical Remnants Set To Impact The Area Next Week? Looking At Updated Weeks 3/4 Data…

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Jul 10

VIDEO: Tropical Remnants Impact Parts Of The OHV Next Week…

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Jul 09

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Potential Tropical Impacts Down The Road And Renewed Heatwave Claim Headlines…

I. Another quiet, pleasant mid-summer day is on tap thanks to high pressure. Though very warm, humidity will remain low today. We should add another 90 degree day to the books later this afternoon.

II. A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and we expect a couple of lines of thunderstorms to move across central Indiana during the day. The first line will likely be in a weakening state as it approaches central Indiana around lunchtime tomorrow, however, we expect a second line of showers and t-storms to move through the heart of the state tomorrow evening.

The Storm Prediction Center includes northwest IN in a ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather Wednesday.

III. While dry conditions (and cooler temperatures) will return here for late week and into the first half of the weekend, all eyes by this time will be centered on soon-to-be Barry. Conditions still seem favorable (sea surface temperatures and upper level wind environment) for a disturbance currently over SW GA to strengthen into a named tropical system over the northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours.

While confidence remains low concerning potential inland impacts from the eventual remnants of Barry (always the case with tropical systems), there seems to be an opportunity for two paths as of now.

“Path A” would essentially be a scenario where Barry gets trapped under an upper level ridge to the north, resulting in raining himself out over Texas next week. “Path B” would curl Barry north and northeast into the OHV, spreading a swath of heavy tropical rains well inland. Stay tuned.

IV. The other headliner will be a return of significant heat next week. While Barry may (or may not) have a say in cooling us down late next week, there will be a renewed stretch of 90 degree warmth that develops Sunday into at least the middle of next week. Longer range data continues to trend hotter and we’ll have a look at the updated European Weeklies later today or Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/09/tuesday-morning-rambles-potential-tropical-impacts-down-the-road-and-renewed-heatwave-claim-headlines/

Jul 08

VIDEO: Quiet Week Overall; Discussing How The Tropics May Play A Big Role In The 6-10 Day Period…

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