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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/25/merry-christmas-the-weather-pattern-takes-on-a-more-active-look-to-close-the-year/
Dec 22
VIDEO: Quiet, Mild Weather Prevails Through Christmas; Rain Returns Friday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/22/video-quiet-mild-weather-prevails-through-christmas-rain-returns-friday/
Dec 21
VIDEO: Timing Out When The “Other Shoe Drops…”
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/21/video-timing-out-when-the-other-shoe-drops/
Dec 19
Long Range Update: Get Used To The Warmer Than Average Conditions
The short-term is as quiet as one could ever ask for this time of year. Accordingly, this is allowing us to look ahead to the potential of more active times on the horizon. Will that increasingly active regime be met with a return of the chill? Let’s dig in…
First and foremost, let’s look over the teleconnections and what light they’re shining on the pattern:
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has eyes on Phase 6 as we open January. This, too, would favor the “core” of the cold well to our northwest. We do, however, note the high latitude blocking that develops in Phase 6.
Given the above, to no surprise, the bulk of long range data paints above normal temperatures to open January. It appears as if what will be an increasingly busy pattern at that point will fall primarily in the form of rain as we ring in the new year thanks to storms cutting up west of our region.
The EPS, GEFS, and JMA Weeklies all suggest a warmer than normal pattern will be with us as we rumble through the first few days of the new year.
As we look ahead deeper into January, we do still believe the pattern will flip towards a colder than normal flavor, but we’re still a few weeks away from that change taking place. In the meantime, a quiet pattern with moderating temperatures (this week) will give way to even milder conditions the following week with a couple opportunities of rain to close the year and open January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/19/long-range-update-get-used-to-the-warmer-than-average-conditions/
Dec 19
VIDEO: Prolonged Stretch Of Mild, Quiet Weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/19/video-prolonged-stretch-of-mild-quiet-weather/
Dec 18
VIDEO: Snowstorm Review; Looking Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/18/video-snowstorm-review-looking-ahead/
Dec 17
Looking Ahead To Christmas Week: Quiet; Warmer Than Average…
It’s been a whirlwind of a few days around these parts, but, thankfully for those with Christmas travel plans, that’s all about to change- at least from a weather stand point.
A cold front will sweep through the state Wednesday morning and we’ll get a glancing blow of arctic air midweek.
This, combined with a fresh snowpack, will result in many neighborhoods waking up Thursday morning to 10s, and a few single digit reports.
With us being on the “outer fringe” of this arctic airmass, we’ll quickly moderate back to “normal” mid-December cold late week and into the weekend. This will be a harbinger of things to come as Christmas week, itself, kicks off.
Note the expanding upper ridge from the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
This will do a couple of things: shove the energy that could have led to a weekend East Coast storm south and result in an unusually quiet and mild time of things, locally for the Christmas holiday.
In fact, with the exception of a couple light snow showers in association with Wednesday cold frontal passage, we’re talking about a precipitation-free stretch through Christmas Day. Not only will the active pattern come to an abrupt halt, but temperatures will begin to moderate to well above average levels by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs around the 50° mark are likely.
The next chance of meaningful precipitation just come just after Christmas and likely take the form of rain.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/17/looking-ahead-to-christmas-week-quiet-warmer-than-average/
Dec 15
Heavy Snow Tonight: Timing Out “Part 2” Monday And Looking Closer At The Late Month Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/15/heavy-snow-tonight-timing-out-part-2-monday-and-looking-closer-at-the-late-month-pattern/
Dec 12
Latest Thoughts On Early Next Week; Long Range Update Into Early Jan…
Through the 11th, December is running 1.6° above normal in Indianapolis. This milder than normal theme is rather widespread so far this month through the Lower 48.
As we look ahead, there are continued reasons to believe the pattern will begin to go through more of a transition towards an ultimately more sustained cold pattern as January evolves. We think that transition really started early this week and will feature plenty of “back and forth” over the the next 2-3 weeks before settling into the more sustained cold regime. There will be storms and “rumors of storms” that we’ll have to track through the transitional period, including smack-dab in the heart of the holiday season this year.
The latest JMA Weeklies (update each Thursday morning) shows this “fight” over the next 1-3 weeks.
Without blocking in place, the way the JMA Weeklies handle the pattern is likely, but the Weeks 2-3 time period does have a chance to offer up a headache or two as the models may begin to adjust to an increasingly “blocky” time of things.
There are at least “hints” that some of the teleconnections that would promote more of a blocky pattern are beginning to align. We caution though that this does take time for these feature to mature and begin to ultimately have a greater impact on our pattern.
As we revisit the latest SST configuration, there’s continued reason to be very excited about this winter if you’re a fan of colder and snowier than normal conditions. We always knew December would be the tough month before the pattern settles into the mean winter pattern late December into March. Now, time to just sit back and watch things unfold. 🙂
Now, back to the short-term. Despite forecast models very much still in (2) separate worlds, we’ve dug into analogs and looked through countless similar patterns from the past. As model consensus develops (hopefully sooner rather than later), let’s see if they (speaking specifically to the GFS and European) converge on this similar solution for best chances of accumulating snow:
We still have many details to sort through and we caution that this system is far from being etched in stone. You’ll want to keep close tabs on latest developments over the next couple of days. With that said, we’re looking for potential wintry impacts here across central Indiana beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday.
This evening’s video update will focus solely on the Sunday-Monday system, including the latest model developments from 12z. Have a great Thursday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/12/latest-thoughts-on-early-next-week-long-range-update-into-early-jan/
Dec 10
Light Snow Chances Wednesday; Something More Exciting Late Weekend?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/10/light-snow-chances-wednesday-something-more-exciting-late-weekend/