Jan 18
Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p
While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.
The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.
We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.
Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.
After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.
Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 6:58a A band of snow will drop south into north-central IN Thursday morning, likely making it as far south as the Indianapolis-area proper before falling apart. This…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-snowy-close-to-the-week-finally-arctic-hammer-drops-this-weekend-before-significant-pattern-change/
Jan 14
Updated 01.14.24 @ 7:13a
Hoosiers are waking up to subzero temperatures this morning. We note double digit below zero readings now penetrating into northwest parts of the state. Wind chill values are dangerously cold.
Highs today will barely sneak into the single digits as the true arctic air mass continues to have a tight grip on the region.
Some light snow may scoot through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This won’t amount to much even if it does materialize. (Dusting to half inch of snow if that).
The next opportunity for potentially more meaningful snow arrives late week – in the Thursday PM through Friday timeframe, preceding another intrusion of bitter arctic air to open next weekend.
For folks longing for milder times, hang in there. A pattern change still seems afoot come late month. This January thaw may even take highs back into the 40s and 50s ahead of a reloading of cold times as we flip the page to February.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-from-the-deep-freeze/
Jan 12
Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p
The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/prolonged-period-of-bitterness-but-a-change-is-on-the-horizon/