Updated 02.21.21 @ 8:48a
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Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/21/video-slick-conditions-still-possible-tonight-hint-of-spring-in-the-week-ahead/
Feb 20
We’ve Seen This Before…
Updated 02.20.21 @ 8:29a
Before we dive into the challenges late next week, the potential is still very much alive and kicking for a period of slick conditions to develop Sunday evening/ night. While we’ll likely be in the middle 30s during the majority of the time this light precipitation is falling, the concern remains, given the duration and magnitude of the cold air (ground is now reported frozen “8 to 12”), that any liquid precipitation that falls will freeze on untreated area roadways and sidewalks. If you have travel plans Sunday night, plan to give yourself plenty of extra time.
Light rain should arrive between 8p and 10p (west to east across the state) Sunday before ending as a bit of light snow (little to no accumulation expected as of now). Total precipitation should be 0.20″ or less for most with this event.
As we look ahead, the next item of possible trouble awaits for mid and late week. A cold front will push south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While this may generate a brief period of light rain transitioning to light snow, it’s what follows that’s of more interest.
Operational guidance (both the European and GFS) suggest this late week system will present a winter storm for our friends in the TN Valley, but we advise to tread with caution for now.
The reason? A strongly negative PNA.
You know the drill by now. This should lead to a more stubborn southeastern ridge and subsequent further north storm track.
Over time, I’d suspect we’ll see just that- the models trending further north with this particular storm system.
As it is, ensemble guidance is already significantly further north than their respective operational counterparts. At the very least, another interesting case study is in front of us…
Stay tuned!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/20/weve-seen-this-before/
Feb 19
VIDEO: Pattern Remains Active Next Week…
Updated 02.19.21 @ 6:19p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/19/video-pattern-remains-active-next-week/
Feb 19
02.19.21 Weather Bulletin: 13 Days And Counting…
Updated: 02.19.21 @ 7:55a
Cold Times Persist Into The Weekend…It’s been 13 full days since we last saw anything close to the freezing mark and we’ll tack on a couple more days before we inch back up above freezing Sunday. This has been an impressive cold stretch (likely longest since back in 2007).
While we’ll see some early sunshine today, clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon and will eventually yield some light snow showers as we move into later tonight and Saturday. The positive in these clouds? It’ll keep us in the “balmy” single digits (as opposed to the once thought 0° to 5° below zero range) to open up our Saturday.
A slightly stronger system will arrive on the scene Sunday afternoon and evening and you know the fear here: that we will be looking at icing issues Sunday PM. Even with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees above freezing, given the strength and magnitude of the cold as of late, the concern is that any sort of liquid precipitation will freeze on the surface. I’d plan on potentially slick travel across the region Sunday evening as this system blows through. Precipitation should arrive mostly after 4p and while we’re not talking about plentiful amounts (0.2″ to 0.4″ for most), it doesn’t take much to create problems.
A gusty westerly breeze will then greet us to open the new work week and this will blow relatively milder air into the region into midweek before a cold front settles south and returns the chill for late next week. As this takes place, we’ll have to keep our eyes to the southwest for the possibility of another more significant winter feature impacting the general area just beyond the current 7-day period.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 19th –> H: 44°/ L: 27° on the 25th
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/19/02-19-21-weather-bulletin-13-days-and-counting/
Feb 18
VIDEO: Long-Winded Update Of Where We Think The Pattern Is Going Into Early March…
Updated: 02.18.21 @ 7:08p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/18/video-long-winded-update-of-where-we-think-the-pattern-is-going-into-early-march/
Feb 18
02.18.21 Weather Bulletin: Another Snowy Day…
Updated 02.18.21 @ 8:38a
More Shoveling Ahead…Widespread snow continues to blanket central Indiana and this will remain the case through early afternoon. Throughout immediate central Indiana, reports indicate we’ve already seen 2″ to 3″ for most and we’ll likely tack on an additional 1″ to 2″ before the steady snow exits early afternoon. (Please keep those reports coming by sending to us via Twitter @indywx or email bill@indywx.com. As always, your ground-truth reports are invaluable- and greatly appreciated)!
“System” snow will diminish from southwest to northeast this evening and arctic reinforcements arrive on the scene tonight and Friday. Additional snow flurries and scattered snow showers are a good bet Friday, but with minimal additional accumulation.
As high pressure builds overhead Friday night and Saturday morning, we’ll likely “go low” on the thermometer and rival numbers seen around these parts Wednesday morning. Sunshine and just enough return flow around that area of high pressure will go a long way to helping us out Saturday afternoon though as we forecast a “balmy” 30° ;-).
Our next storm system will blow through here Sunday into Sunday night. You know our concern. Despite forecast model data trying to warm things up, I’m afraid data still isn’t understanding the situation at hand, especially given the prolonged nature and magnitude of the cold. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, but as it sits now, I’m still very much concerned we’re looking at more of a wintry mix/ icing type event Sunday PM as opposed to a cold rain the majority of data currently shows.
Next week will open on the milder side of things, but we’re already eyeing the next possible round of wintry “mischief” late next week…
More on all of this, including a longer range update later this evening in our video discussion.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/18/02-18-21-weather-bulletin-another-snowy-day/
Feb 17
02.17.21 Weather Bulletin: Snow Returns; Keeping An Eye On Sunday…
Updated 02.17.21 @ 8:06a
Snow Builds Back In…As easy as the previous storm was, this one has been a royal pain in the neck. Stubbornly, I anticipated a further northwest shift (especially given the PNA state), but that’s not to be the case. While southern and southeastern Indiana will tack on a few additional inches with this storm, this is a 1″ to 2″ type deal for central Indiana, and most of that falls tomorrow morning into Thursday afternoon.
A few lingering light snow showers are possible Friday followed by clearing. High pressure will build overhead Friday night and set us up for another “nasty” cold night. Temperatures will likely rival where we are this morning come Saturday morning as winds go calm and skies clear.
The next potential trouble maker looms on the horizon Sunday. Models are beginning to slowly understand that we’re simply not going to dislodge all of this cold air in quick fashion. As such, a wintry mix and/ or wet snow is becoming increasingly likely by Sunday PM into Sunday night as this system blows through.
Quiet conditions return into early portions of the work week.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 24° on the 17th –> H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 23rd
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/17/02-17-21-weather-bulletin-snow-returns-keeping-an-eye-on-sunday/
Feb 16
VIDEO: Fresh Thoughts On Tmrw Night-Thursday; Wintry Times Remain As We Close Out The Week…
Updated: 02.16.21 @ 9p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/16/video-fresh-thoughts-on-tmrw-night-thursday-wintry-times-remain-as-we-close-out-the-week/
Feb 16
VIDEO: Let The Dig Out Begin; Light At The End Of The Long, Cold, Dark Tunnel?
Updated: 02.16.21 @ 8:02a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/16/video-let-the-dig-out-begin-light-at-the-end-of-the-long-cold-dark-tunnel/
Feb 15
VIDEO: Here Comes Winter Storm #2; Snowfall Forecast Wednesday Night-Thursday…
Updated 02.15.21 @ 2:25p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/15/video-here-comes-winter-storm-2-snowfall-forecast-wednesday-night-thursday/