Oct 10
Delta– the remnants of one time powerful Hurricane Delta will curl northeast into the TN Valley today and cross the southern Appalachians Sunday. Central Indiana will miss out on any…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/10/saturday-morning-rambles-time-to-pull-out-the-heavier-cold-weather-gear/
Oct 09
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/09/video-deltas-remnants-head-north-targeting-a-much-colder-pattern-for-mid-month/
Oct 08
As the fall season “matures” the same MJO phase last month can lead to a much different weather pattern this month (November and so on). Note how the latest European monthly MJO model takes things through 5, 6, 7, and 8 by early November.
With greater amplitude, I’d say this would take the driver seat behind the pattern evolution into early November, but that’s not the case. Instead, we’ll want to continue to closely monitor the happenings with the EPO and PNA.
Both are pegged to move into favorable phases to bring the chill back into the East as we move through late October.
We think next week will feature a “step-down” process to a much chillier following week (Oct. 17th-23rd).
The new JMA Weeklies into the office this morning show a similar pattern evolution:
If anything, I’d expect this model to cool further over time in that Weeks 3-4 period. It’s also interesting to see the high latitude blocking shown to remain intact (that can really begin to have more of an impact downstream once to November).
Unfortunately, it’s a continued dry pattern. We’ll have more frequent frontal passages as we move through the back half of the month, but these will likely be moisture starved for the most part. It still doesn’t look like a wholesale wetter pattern will kick in until later in November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/08/long-range-update-2nd-half-of-october-and-open-to-november/
Oct 07
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/07/video-tracking-delta-pattern-turns-chilly-again-down-the-road/
Oct 06
October has opened on quite a chilly note across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the eastern half of the country. Officially, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below average, month-to-date.
While warming will occur in the upcoming 7-day period, there are already seeds being planted for the return of unseasonably chilly conditions after this transitional warmth.
The pattern will take on signs that you’d expect from a positive PNA and trending negative EPO. That will pull the chill back into the east and we may just may trend wetter during the mid and late month period, as a series of cold fronts sweep through the region (fingers crossed).
The purpose of this post is to focus on the predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (or AO) and what, if anything, we can learn for the upcoming winter. Note the AO continues a negative look over the upcoming couple weeks (it’s been negative so far this month, as well).
The combination of the persistent negative AO so far this month, along with what’s forecasted over the coming few weeks, got us interested to see what kind of patterns occurred during the following winter (Dec. through Feb.). We went back and looked at all October with a negative AO of 1, or more, since 1960 and this is what the analogs produced:
There’s obviously a lot of other ingredients we’ll factor into our winter outlook this year (per usual), but this is another interesting case study in front of us, especially with so many climate models blow torching the upcoming winter.
Our complete annual winter outlook will be online Sunday, November 1st.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/06/what-can-we-learn-from-a-persistent-negative-october-ao-for-the-upcoming-winter/
Oct 05
Before we talk tropics, frost is widespread this morning across the state. We note some are even at the freezing mark as we start the new work week.
This is right around average, or just a few days early, for our first 32° freeze of the year across central Indiana.
Expect bright sunshine and another classic fall sky this afternoon which will help warm us to around 60°.
The week ahead will feature quiet conditions across the region. We’ll watch a couple of cold fronts scoot by to our northeast and, of course, soon-to-be Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. Delta will likely strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the north-central Gulf Coast late week. There are ingredients in place that may result in rapid intensification later this week and the potential of Delta strengthening into a major hurricane is on the table, IMHO. Thankfully, the combination of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures right along the coast (thanks to the early fall fronts that have made it unusually far south) should help lead to weakening prior to landfall. The problem with that, however, is if the system is coming in as a major, storm surge will still be quite significant.
If you have plans to travel to the northern Gulf Coast, please pay particularly close attention to the develops over the coming hours and days. As of this morning, it appears as if we’ll be looking at a Friday landfall.
Back here on the home front, quiet conditions are expected this week- and for the most part over the next few weeks. Perhaps the next item of excitement will be a cold front pegged to move through the region in the 8-10 day period. We’ll need to keep close eyes on the EPO/ PNA trends in the Week 2 period for the possibility of a sharp jab of colder air behind that cold front. This would come after a nice surge of warmth (Indian Summer) compared to normal. Additionally, looking even further ahead, longer range guidance is beginning to get excited around the potential of unseasonably cold (wintry like) air to open November.
Week 1
Week 2
As expected, the pattern should continue to run quite dry through the better part of the period:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/05/soon-to-be-delta-makes-for-a-busy-week-along-the-gulf-coast-3-week-outlook-for-central-in/
Oct 04
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/04/video-frosty-start-monday-gives-way-to-moderating-temperatures-this-week-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-gulf/
Oct 03
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/03/video-looking-ahead-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Oct 02
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/02/video-frosty-start-ahead-saturday-for-some-looking-ahead-to-next-week/
Sep 30
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/30/video-todays-gusty-winds-offer-up-chilly-reinforcements-heading-into-the-weekend/