Dec 04
1.) Fog will hang tough this morning, but strong southerly winds will blow this afternoon and help the fog burn off. 2.) With the cold and snow talk ahead, be…
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Dec 01
Your complete 7-Day IndyWx.com forecast can be found in the video player to the right of this post.
Before we begin to discuss the potential wintry mischief ahead for late week, it’s important to stress that there are still several unanswered questions out there that will have to be ironed out with time as we go through the next couple of days. That said, the latest data continues to suggest the potential is there for a rather prolonged, multi-day, winter weather event looming. This won’t come from some sort of powerhouse storm system, but instead multiple waves of energy (low pressure) moving along a pressing arctic boundary. The continued “curious” item here is the interaction with the arctic boundary’s progress south and east and the resistance that will be put forth from the southeast ridge.
The latest 500mb pattern off the 0z run of the GFS forecast model has “trouble” written all over it and we must keep a close eye on things as we move forward the next couple of days. Additional model data from the European forecast model and Canadian are also suggesting fun times ahead.
This image is valid Saturday evening and shows a couple of important items- the southeast ridge and the associated fight it’ll put up with the pressing arctic front, as well as “renewed” energy organizing across the Four Corners region, organizing before a track northeast.
The way we currently see things panning out would suggest the threat of light accumulating snow is on the table late Thursday night through Friday followed by a dry and cold day Saturday. That said, as shown above, renewed energy will move northeast the second half of the weekend into early next week and be responsible for spreading moisture back over what will be an unseasonably cold air mass in place, certainly one conducive for wintry precipitation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t just a snow event, but some places of the immediate coverage area (central Indiana, in particular) could experience an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain, as well. It’s far too early to talk about any sort of storm total accumulations as these type “overrunning” events can surprise… That said, we are gaining confidence on “part 1″ of this event providing light accumulating snow for most of central Indiana Friday- light meaning less than 3”. Additional accumulation of wintry precipitation would occur with “part 2” of this event during the back half of the weekend.
Again, it’ll be crucial to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and developments as things become clearer as we move forward. As of now, keep a mental note in the back of your mind that the possibility is there for accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday, as well as later in the weekend…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/potential-long-duration-winter-event-looming/
Nov 26
Tonight’s Video Highlights: Lake Effect Snow Showers And Squalls Set To Impact Central Indiana Coldest Thanksgiving In Years On Deck Eyeing The Potential Of An Arctic Invasion Next Week
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Nov 26
Good morning and happy Tuesday, Hoosiers! Yesterday’s forecast went as planned with most folks not receiving any snowfall accumulation and a couple reports of a dusting to half an inch type snow. We saw a couple local weather sources forecasting 1″ of snow and never understood that call as a lot of dry air had to be overcome initially.
Today will feature lots of clouds and another cold day as we watch a big southern storm begin to “make the curve” and impact the interior east. Places as close as eastern Ohio will deal with heavy snow tonight and early Wednesday. Additionally, locations as far south as east Tennessee will have accumulating snow by late tonight and early Wednesday.
Back here on the “home front” we’re looking at our next chance of snow arriving Wednesday afternoon. The wind trajectory off Lake Michigan should allow a couple of lake-enhanced snow bands to push south into north-central Indiana, primarily from IND and points north. It’s impossible to pinpoint with any degree of certainty the precise locations of these snow bands, but should your neighborhood end up under one of these snow squalls, don’t be surprised if you pick up a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday afternoon/ evening.
Most model data (below) shows the lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arriving Wednesday afternoon. We’ll have a complete forecast update (and probable video) here later tonight. Make it a great day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/clouds-today-snow-showers-for-the-big-travel-day/
Nov 24
As we approach the all-important holiday travel season, I thought it would be nice to review what some of the data suggests in the long range sense. While nothing is “set in stone” talking about weather 2-3 weeks out, we feel pretty confident in the overall idea of a colder than normal pattern and one that’s also potentially wintry- from a precipitation perspective. The specifics with each storm will have to be handled as they come.
Let’s look at some of the data. BTW, I want to give full credit to the awesome model suite that can be found at Weatherbell Analytics for some of these images. Be sure to check them out at weather bell.com.
First, we’ll take a look at the Canadian ensembles, centered on the 8-16 day period. Note the tongue of cold coming out of western Canada, extending southeast and encompassing the Ohio Valley region. Folks, this is significant cold forecast off the Canadian ensembles as temperatures are suggested to average 5-7 degrees (C) below normal.
The latest GFS ensembles also suggest widespread colder than normal temperatures over the upcoming couple weeks. Similar to the Canadian (above), the GFS suggests temperatures average 5-7 degrees celsius below normal.
Latest European ensemble data suggests a cold look as well, but one that also may feature a day or two above normal (over the next couple weeks). The latest ensemble control run highlights the threat of some bitterly cold arctic air plunging south towards the second week of December (posted below). We’ll continue to monitor this in the days to come.
Here’s a look at the latest CFSv2. While it’s in stark contrast to only a couple of weeks ago (in its December forecast), the model is now onboard with most other data in forecasting a colder than normal December for our region.
It has to be pointed out that all of the cold data is forecast during a time where the three “major” teleconnections really aren’t in the most ideal spots for eastern cold. Typically, cold lovers across the eastern United States want a negative AO and NAO with a positive PNA. The NAO and AO are forecast to be very “sporadic” over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days while the PNA is forecast to go back negative. That said, the NAO has the biggest influence on our weather from January through March (we’ve covered this in posts in the archives). The expansive early season snow and ice pack through western Canada is having it’s say with a couple of early season “brutal” cold shots here (it’s very rare to get this kind of cold so early in the season). We’ll continue to monitor these teleconnections moving forward for any sort of a more defined signal that may begin to come to fruition.
Speaking of snow and ice cover; look at how much more territory across the Lower 48 is covered with snow and ice compared to this date (November 24th) last year. Impressive, huh?
November 24, 2012 (11.8% covered in snow)
November 24, 2013 (37.8% covered in snow)
As we look closer at the near term, there’s a chance of some light snow moving in Monday evening (not a huge deal, but some light accumulations of a dusting to half an inch are possible). Scattered snow showers will also blow into central Indiana Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of fresh arctic air blows in prior to Thanksgiving.
In the mid range, both the GFS and European ensembles (below) suggest an “intriguing” look for the first 10 days of December for the potential of a more widespread winter weather maker. It’s far too early for details, but with arctic air being supplied into a pattern that looks to have a southern branch beginning to flex it’s muscle, we’ll have to remain on our toes as we go into December… Here’s wishing you a very happy and healthy Thanksgiving, complete with safe travels!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/data-suggests-cold-pattern-keeps-on-keepin-on/