Dec 31
Many across the Lower 48 are running MUCH colder than average this morning. Take a look a temperature departures from normal this morning: Mind you this is in the face…
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Dec 30
Quick couple updates this evening:
Virtually all of today’s model data has jumped on a stronger storm system for the weekend as opposed to a flatter wave. This leads to a more northwest track and would imply more “wet than white” for local precipitation types for the weekend. One important difference between this upcoming event and those of recent past is that arctic air is now on the playing field and this can create all sorts of “havoc” in mid range modeling. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
The other HUGE item of business we want to get across is the prolonged and rather impressive cold pattern. A series of arctic highs will come down the Plains and spread southeast the upcoming 7-10 days. Despite a potential brief spike in temperatures Saturday, it’s a MUCH colder than normal pattern. Eventually, we’ll have to closely monitor the potential of a couple of snow-producing clipper systems. Sometimes these can be overachievers, depending on track and intensity and one of two clippers next week may be just that…
More later! Have a great evening!
Jet Stream Forecast: New Year’s Day 2015
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Dec 30
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Fresh Arctic Air…Arctic air is on the move this morning and will result in a bitterly cold close to 2014. This arctic air may be accompanied by a snow flurry or scattered snow shower later this afternoon (especially across northeast and east-central Indiana). The bigger story will be the bitter feel to the air as wind chills fall to around zero tonight and Wednesday morning.
Dry, but frigid conditions remain New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. If you plan on ringing 2015 in downtown Wednesday night, be sure to be prepared for the cold and dress warmly!
Weekend Storm System…We continue to track a storm system for the weekend, but more questions than answers remain on precise track and timing and will have a huge impact on precipitation types and amounts. For now we forecast a wintry “potpourri” of rain, sleet, and snow Friday night into Saturday, tapering to backlash flurries Sunday. Stay tuned.
Eyes On Clippers…Indications are that we may get into a rather busy clipper pattern next week. The first of possibly two clippers may deliver snow Monday night into Tuesday. Cold weather continues.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
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Dec 29
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. 20/ 35 22/ 29 14/ 22 18/ 31 22/ 32 25/ 34 31/ 37 Highlights: Freezing For For Some This Morning Sunny And Very Cold Weather To Close…
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Dec 28
After a cold November, December has been a mild month across the country:
Our headache of a Christmas Eve storm delivered wet weather and this was followed by another wet weather maker (that ended as a wintry mix across central Indiana) yesterday:
Lower 48 Snowpack isn’t impressive considering the time of year:
As we move forward, colder times are ahead to wrap up 2014. Note the latest GFS ensembles showing a one-two punch of cold in the coming couple of weeks. Also note the initially warmer Southeast region- courtesy of that negative PNA. 1st image is Day 1-6, 2nd image is Day 6-11, and the 3rd image is Day 11-16.
The GFS ensembles suggests the cold eventually overwhelms the pattern in the face of a mostly negative PNA that slowly begins to trend positive:
Remember a negative PNA typically would provide a milder southeast this time of year:
The AO, or Arctic Oscillation, has shown a tendency to want to go negative- a cold signal (note the control run off the charts negative):
The European model is suggesting we have a true direct discharge of arctic air in the mid range pattern (left) while the GFS isn’t as bullish on the cold. We’ll likely have to put down a snowpack to achieve the cold the European is suggesting Days 8-10 (below zero). Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on things.
The last few days of 2014 will be relatively quiet, and colder than normal. The next storm system of significance awaits for Friday and Saturday. Modeling ranges anywhere from mostly a rain event to more of a significant winter storm. Case in point, let’s just compare the GFS (TOP- milder and less snow) and GFS Upgrade (BOTTOM- colder and more snow). While we can’t show it here, the European model is more of a blend and also delivers accumulating snow. Again, another big fight coming (and you thought you wanted to have this job ;-))?!
In the longer term, the MJO suggests we’re heading back into a milder pattern for mid January as it takes us into Phase 5. Caution though as the MJO forecasts have been erratic as of late, as well. (Click on the images to enlarge if needed).
Bottom line: Our short term confidence is very high on a dry and colder than normal stretch of weather through Day 5. By Day 6 confidence begins to decrease as a wide range of solutions can be argued for and against concerning the storm system next week. We appear set to go into a highly volatile weather pattern through the mid and longer range. Many of our long range teleconnections contradict one another leading to a lower than normal confidence in the longer range.
All of that said, one key ingredient that’s been missing over the past few weeks is arctic air getting involved with the pattern. As stated above, that’s not the case any longer (thanks to this blocking ridge over AK):
Modeling can struggle in handling true arctic air and, as such, wild swings can take place with mid and long range guidance. We caution against this in advance. With so many different signals out there, anticipate a very stormy (not necessarily saying this has to mean snowy) pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.
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