New Year, New Pattern Awaits…
As we rumble through the remainder of 2016, a “transient” weather pattern awaits. Cooler, more seasonable, air is working itself into the Ohio Valley today and will be followed by another (stronger) cold front Thursday. That front will pack more of a punch in the cold department, along with providing opportunity for snow showers, as well. That said, we’re still about a week off from more of a sustained cold pattern.
With the arrival of the new year, a new weather pattern will emerge as well…
The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) will flip back to negative phases as the New Year arrives. This will help drive the shift, initially, to a colder regime, locally.
Accordingly, we see the ensemble data flipping to a colder pattern over the upcoming (10) days. Note the low anomalies in the higher latitude regions today (Image 1) versus Day 10 (Image 2).
The pattern developing by Day (10) is one capable of producing another frigid regime- only January style. Cross-polar flow sets up shop and, unlike, December, some blocking is noted, as well. This can help the mean storm track shift further south. (Bye-bye Great Lakes cutters, though Mid Western and Ohio Valley Snow Lovers will find a new worry in the form of suppression potential ;-)). Individual storms will have their respected challenges, as always. As a whole, it’s a very cold, stormy look and a pattern capable of leading to an expanding snow pack across the Lower 48.
Notes: The new European Weeklies are in and reflect the general idea here of a more sustained cold, wintry pattern unfolding as January arrives. The Weeklies are very cold through Weeks 2-3, in particular. As far as snow goes, they also suggest an active storm track with numerous storms leading to an increasingly snowy regime through the middle parts of January, as well. That said, we’re a bit hesitant to focus too much on the long-term snowfall details as the Weeklies have been too generous in the snow department over the past several weeks. As a whole, it’s very tough to argue the pattern isn’t one that should yield the snowy “goods” in the coming weeks though.
More later!
This is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.
As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year. This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.
Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region. Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.
Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week. A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day. Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.
The heavy, dense, arctic air will win out as evening turns into nighttime. Indianapolis is back to the freezing mark around 6p and into the 20s by 9p.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the day Sunday and by Monday morning central Indiana will be in the single digits, with below zero readings across northern parts of the state.
Wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees below zero will be common by Sunday night into Monday morning across central Indiana.
Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across the region into the early afternoon, but begin to expand in coverage and intensity once again by evening. Note the area of freezing rain expand across central IN, including Indianapolis, between 4p and 7p.
Freezing rain will eventually begin to mix with sleet and eventually transition to light snow during the overnight from northwest to southeast. A coating of snow to less than 1″ is a good bet on the new icy glaze that develops tonight.