Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Dec 09

Buckle Up; Active Winter Pattern Is Only Beginning…

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-7-32-12-amHighlights:

  • Very cold with snow showers diminishing
  • Messy second half of the weekend
  • Awaiting our next storm mid week
  • Frigid air awaits

Wintry Hits Are Lining Up…Fresh arctic air combined with even the slightest bit of upper energy can produce an overachieving snow shower event. As was the case overnight with many neighborhoods through central IN accumulating a coating to around 1″ of snow.  Take it slow this morning and leave extra time to reach your destination.  Bitterly cold air continues to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend (keep in mind our average high and low are in the lower 40s and middle 20s, respectfully).  As we look through the upcoming 7-day period, temperatures will run significantly below average throughout.

Our next storm system is dialed up this weekend.  Clouds will increase as we progress through the second half of the day Saturday and light snow will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As the area of low pressure tracks from northern MO into the Great Lakes, we’ll get into a milder southerly flow Sunday.  This will help bring in enough warm air to transition snow to rain during the day Sunday.  Beforehand, a light accumulation of snow is possible in and around Indianapolis (more on potential amounts this time tomorrow).  Heavier snow will pile up across northern Indiana.  Precipitation should shut off rather quickly Sunday night and we’ll be in between systems Monday.

By Tuesday, our attention will turn northwest as we await the arrival of another arctic cold front.  As the front moves in, modeling suggests multiple waves of energy move along the boundary, throwing moisture into the cold air and creating a rather snowy scenario as we progress through mid week.  We need to get through the weekend first, but this could also be an impactful event.  Very windy and frigid conditions move in Wednesday into Thursday, including sub-zero wind chills.  Additional snow chances await next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″- 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/buckle-up-active-winter-pattern-is-only-beginning/

Dec 07

Busy Winter Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-7-59-56-amHighlights:

  • Arctic air blows in tonight
  • Winter storm potential this weekend
  • Another blast of arctic air next week

Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks.  Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening.  Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought.  (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead).  We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning.  We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.

Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night.  Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday.  Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event.  We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up.  Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.

Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week.  This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
  • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-winter-pattern/

Dec 06

Would You Rather Be In The Game Fighting To Win, Or Sitting On The Bench?

The pattern over the upcoming 10-15 days presents a whole slew of challenges, but has the potential to be one winter enthusiasts remember for a long time.  Arctic air is beginning to press and will eventually overwhelm the pattern by the end of the week.  Additionally, a second and third surge of arctic air will be inbound next week.  Each arctic plunge may become more severe as we go, especially if we can get a snowpack down.  The potential is on the table for sub-zero temperatures (not even counting wind chills) by mid-month.  That, my friends, is not normal for December, and is in stark contrast from Decembers of recent memory.  Whether or not we get one “big ticket” event, or deal with a parade of storms that lay snow down is up for debate and will require burning the midnight oil in the good ole weather office as we progress through the next couple weeks.

mid-dec2016The overall set-up is certainly an intriguing one.  Cross-polar flow seeds pressing arctic air into the pattern (again, it comes in “waves” over the next couple weeks, each subsequently stronger).  What’s of particular interest is the battle that develops between a tag-team of ridges- SW and SE (at times these will put up more resistance than the other).  Long-time Hoosiers know that when cross-polar flow gets involved it can “suppress” storms, but rest easy in knowing that the SE ridge will provide resistance.  In fact, some across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys may eventually complain that the southeast ridge is providing too much resistance.

As confident as we are in the overall dramatic flip in the pattern to one capable of producing severe winter weather over the next couple weeks, per usual, the devil is in the details.  Expect a tight gradient between areas where heavy snow begins to stack up and little to nothing- at least initially.  Additionally, depending how things evolve, icing events may eventually require attention for portions of the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley as that shallow arctic air “oozes” south over what may become quite the impressive snowpack north.  This will require further attention in week 2.

At the end of the day, there will be “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to storms (always are) and each will require our attention and fine tuning.  However, if you’re a lover of winter weather, it’s hard not to sit back and smile at what’s in front of us over the upcoming couple weeks, especially compared to the past couple Decembers.

Needless to say, we’re on the field and in the game…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/would-you-rather-be-in-the-game-fighting-to-win-or-sitting-on-the-bench/

Dec 03

Sunday Mix; Heavier Winter Gear Needed Next Week…

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-9-48-58-amHighlights:

  • Sunday mix
  • Wet Tuesday
  • Midweek snow and turning bitter

Winter Awaits…Today is chilly and dry. Thankfully, we’ll finally get to see the sun.  Enjoy it into the afternoon as clouds will quickly increase yet again later in the day as our next storm system approaches.

Speaking of that next system, moisture will spread into the chilly air mass Sunday morning.  Across central IN, this will fall as a wintry mix of light snow and chilly light rain.  Further north, this will be a mostly snow event, including a light accumulation possible (slushy amounts under 1″) across far northern portions of the state.  All-in-all, this won’t be a big deal.

We’ll have a brief break in between systems Monday before rain returns at night.  This is courtesy of another wave of low pressure lifting out of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, tracking northeast through the TN Valley and into southeastern Ohio.  Central Indiana snow lovers know that’s a classic track for snow around these parts this time of year.  We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, the air mass doesn’t look cold enough (yet).

A much colder pattern looms by the middle of next week.  Along with the arrival of the arctic air mass, we also favor a wave of low pressure delivering accumulating snow prospects Wednesday night into Thursday.  (That high Thursday will come at midnight with temperatures crashing through the day).  We’ll turn bitterly cold to close the week, including wind chills falling to around zero.

This is only the beginning of a very cold and wintry period.  There are plenty of “fun and games” awaiting as we rumble through the next couple weeks…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-mix-heavier-winter-gear-needed-next-week/

Dec 02

VIDEO: A Cold, Wintry Pattern Is Upon Us…

 

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-a-cold-wintry-pattern-is-upon-us/