Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Feb 03

Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

02.01.17Teleconnections

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-looking-ahead/

Feb 01

VIDEO: Welcome To February…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-welcome-to-february/

Jan 31

Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?

Screen Shot 2017-01-31 at 8.07.29 AMHighlights:

  • Windy Tuesday
  • Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
  • Accumulating weekend snow?

Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north.  Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times.  Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s.  Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.

We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week.  What’s new this winter?  A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/

Jan 29

Sunday Morning Rambles…

1.) Our fast-moving NW flow continues today. Snow showers and localized heavier squalls will increase later this afternoon and evening as another upper level disturbance moves through. This won’t be a “uniform” event, but if driving please plan on rapidly reduced visibilities within the heavier squalls.


2.) Overall, the upcoming week looks chilly, but relatively dry. Fast-moving disturbances can be a pain for modeling and “last minute” corrections can take place, but consistency on the next storm system tracking north of the region Monday evening and Tuesday morning continues. We’ll note a gusty wind during this time frame (30-40 MPH gusts), but don’t foresee significant precipitation across central parts of the state.


3.) There’s the chance for snow showers midweek, but our attention will shift to the prospects of a “more meaningful” event next weekend. With this being a storm we’re watching for the day 7 period, confidence is low and specifics vary greatly. Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details. Just know from this distance, an accumulating event is possible.


4.) The last couple of weeks has featured an impressive January “thaw.” We note the blow torch regime of the past week across the central and east below.


See the shift back to winter, especially across the northern tier as we close January and flip the calendar into February.


The GEFS is bullish on the cold growing stronger as we progress through the first half of February.


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-4/

Jan 27

Wintry Weekend; Accumulating Snow Sunday…

Screen Shot 2017-01-27 at 4.59.51 PMHighlights:

  • Wintry weekend
  • More widespread snow Sunday
  • Reinforcing cold next week

Scattered Snow Showers Turns To Steadier Snow Sunday…Upper level energy will continue to track across the region this weekend, setting off periods of snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (case in point this evening).  The strongest upper level energy will pass Sunday evening and the result should be a period of more widespread snow Sunday- especially in the afternoon and evening.  A light accumulation (1″-2″ potential) is possible.

The new work week will begin with early flurries Monday and then we’ll kick in a strong and gusty southwest wind Monday night, continuing into Tuesday.  We’ll turn milder briefly Tuesday, but strong winds will remain.  We’ll continue to monitor the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period as some modeling wants to deliver a round of light snow with the reinforcing chill.  We’ll give it another round of model runs, but we may need to hit snow a little harder in the Tuesday night period.

Another disturbance will race through the region Thursday with snow showers and then we’ll eye the potential of a stronger system next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall:  0.00″ 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wintry-weekend-accumulating-snow-sunday/