Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Nov 15

Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.55.18 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Clouds and rain return
  • Colder late week
  • Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November

Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning.  That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions.  Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.  With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.

Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening.  A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain.  It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not.  A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night.  When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains.  We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.

gfs_pwat_conus2_14Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week.  Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving.  With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…

The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.

KIND_2015111500_nxa_384

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Nov 08

Changes On The Horizon…

Screen Shot 2015-11-08 at 9.39.59 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Rain arrives Monday afternoon/ evening
  • Stormy Wednesday night-Thursday morning
  • Much colder late next week

High pressure will supply a beauty of a second half of the weekend.  After the frosty start to the day, we’ll “warm” into the lower 50s this afternoon.  It’ll be a perfect crisp November day.

Changes arrive Monday as clouds increase and give way to rain as early as the afternoon as moisture rides north out of the Deep South.  A wave of low pressure will ride up the western slopes of the western Appalachians and enhance early week rain to our east.

The next big ticket item is the storm that will arrive Wednesday night.  We continue to keep a very close eye on this as a severe weather outbreak appears likely.  Specifics still have to be ironed out and we go through the next couple days, but keep abreast of the latest weather information during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time period.

MUCH colder air will pour into the region behind the big low as it wraps up over the Great Lakes.  A hard freeze appears likely come Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-on-the-horizon/

Nov 07

Dry, Chilly November Weekend; Mid Week Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-11-07 at 10.56.54 AMHighlights:

  • Sunny and cool
  • Midweek Storms
  • Prolonged period of windy weather late week

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this weekend and helping supply sunshine and that cool, crisp air we enjoy this time of year.  Freeze and frost conditions are ahead tonight and again Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead and results in clear skies and calm winds.

As the high moves to our east, a return SW flow will help moderate temperatures for mid week. As our next storm system comes out of the Plains it’ll intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes.  Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it swings through the state Wednesday night.  We’ll monitor for strong to severe storm potential.  A lot will hinge upon the precise track of the surface low and we’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple days.  We’ll turn cooler again late next week with strong winds shifting from the SW to NW.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dry-chilly-november-weekend-mid-week-storms/

Nov 06

Video Update: Chilly Weekend; Severe Potential Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-update-chilly-weekend-severe-potential-next-week/