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Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-refreshing-now-but-heat-and-humidity-set-to-return/
Jun 05
Telling Time Ahead…
Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet. The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea. The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well. On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift. With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.” I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend. Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer. (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).
While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar. More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.
While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region. We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.
Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally. Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole. In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June. At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/telling-time-ahead/
Jun 05
VIDEO: Reinforcing Refreshing Air Before Heat Builds…
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May 20
Unsettled Open To The Week And Looking Towards Next Weekend…
As we type this Sunday evening a few strong storms have developed across east-central Indiana. If your travels take you east this evening, a couple of these storms have been producing large hail and strong winds.
Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the early stages of the week. Rainfall coverage will likely be most widespread Monday, and come in a couple waves: Monday morning into early afternoon and again Monday evening.
By the time all is said and done late Monday night and early Tuesday, expect widespread rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1″ with locally heavier amounts where the stronger storms track.
High pressure will build into the region through the midweek stretch and result in increasingly sunny and pleasant conditions. With a drier air mass in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s through the midweek period.
Our attention will then shift to the threat of active times for the Memorial Day weekend, including the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500. After a mostly dry Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Friday night through the weekend, continuing into early Monday as of now. While it won’t rain the entire time, it might be a good idea to have a “plan B” in mind at times for the busy upcoming weekend. Models like the idea of a rather significant, albeit likely brief, cool down to close the month…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unsettled-open-to-the-week-and-looking-towards-next-weekend/
May 06
PM Storms Today; Turning Up The Warmth And Humidity Late Week…
Our morning is off to a gorgeous start, including clear skies and pleasant temperatures! Take the coffee out on the front porch this morning and enjoy!
A cold front currently sits off to our northwest and this will move southeast as we head through the afternoon and evening hours. As the front slides through central Indiana, we’ll forecast scattered showers and thundershowers to develop this afternoon, lasting up to around sunset before diminishing.
Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings. High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.
A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend. We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend. The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.
While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected. There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pm-storms-today-turning-up-the-warmth-and-humidity-late-week/