Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/19/video-damp-thursday-gives-way-to-a-gusty-saturday-a-lot-to-discuss-over-the-next-10-days/

Oct 18

Unsettled Weather Returns To Close The Work Week; Widespread Frost To Open The New Week…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Harvest23, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather

• October 18, 2023

Updated 10.18.23 @ 6:17a

Today will start on the seasonally cool side with plentiful sunshine. We’ll note an increase in mud and high level clouds this afternoon that will eventually lower and thicken tonight. These clouds will signal rain by Thursday morning, and perhaps embedded thunder. The culprit? A cold front. This front will move through the state during the day Thursday.

Additional showers will follow Friday morning thanks to trailing upper level energy.

Most area rain gauges should expect to accumulate between 0.10” and 0.30” during the aforementioned time period but there will be some 0.50”+ exceptions.

Seasonally chilly air will flow in behind this system for the weekend. As high pressure settles overhead, the coldest night upcoming should be Sunday night/ Monday morning where widespread frost is expected across central Indiana. Most will wake up to temperatures between 33° and 35°.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/17/video-new-seasonal-guidance-ups-the-ante-for-upcoming-winter-unsettled-close-to-the-work-week/

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Oct 13

Tracking 2 Storms In The Week Ahead…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, Cut Off Low, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

• October 13, 2023

Updated 10.13.23 @ 7:25a

I’ve had the opportunity this week to spend time with family and loved ones in the gorgeous western NC and eastern TN mountains. Fall foliage is starting to pop above 2,000 feet, especially after the cooler air this week.

At any rate, thank you for your patience and flexibility this week as posts have been a bit off schedule. We’ll resume “normal programming” Saturday.

When we look ahead to this week, there are 2 storms of note. The easy and obvious first system will deliver a round of storms this evening. A few of these will have gusty winds and a few leftover “backlash” showers will continue through the weekend as the upper low swirls overhead. Once again, we’ll turn much cooler tonight and continue into the new week.

Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common for central and southern Indiana with heavier amounts of 1” to 1.5” across the northern 1/3 of the state.

Our second system is much more complex and will come into the picture late week (next Friday/ Saturday time frame). Guidance agrees on the energy becoming cut off from the main steering flow but is far from etched in stone with the specifics at this distance. It’ll certainly be a topic of discussion in the days ahead.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/13/tracking-2-storms-in-the-week-ahead/

Oct 12

LR Update: Checking In On The Pattern Drivers To Close October…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, JMA, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather

• October 12, 2023

Updated 10.12.23 @ 10:50a

As we roll into the second half of October, a look at the primary pattern drivers suggests there should be a lack of any sort of sustained above normal temperatures.

The PNA (image 1) should remain mostly in a positive state over the next couple weeks while the EPO (image 2) is expected to be in a neutral to negative state.

Furthermore, the MJO is forecast to sneak into Phase 1 late month. This is the correlation in October:

It’s hard to find much at fault with the NEW JMA Weeklies posted earlier today.

Temperatures

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Precipitation should run average to slightly below normal over the span of the upcoming (2) weeks:

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/12/lr-update-checking-in-on-the-pattern-drivers-to-close-october/

Oct 11

Briefly Warmer; Blustery Close To The Week With Rain And A Few Storms…

• Filed under 10-day, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

• October 11, 2023

Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.

Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.

A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.

Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.

With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.

The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.

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Oct 10

Lunchtime Rambles: Time To Start Thinking About Stocking That Wood Pile…

• Filed under Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

• October 10, 2023

Updated 10.10.23 @ 12:53p

I. A warm front will lift north through Indiana Wednesday. This will serve as a focal point for locally heavy rain across the northern tier of counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most high resolution modeling keeps central Indiana out of the heavy rain axis but a passing shower is certainly possible.

II. A cold front and associated area of low pressure will rumble across the Ohio Valley Friday with more widespread rain (embedded thunder) impacting central Indiana Friday evening and Friday night.

III. A cold core upper low will drop southeast Sunday into Monday. With the cold air aloft and just enough daytime heating, showers (potentially mixed with graupel) will develop. Otherwise, anticipate a “raw” close to the weekend and open to the new work week.

IV. Our recent chilly turn will only be reinforced that much further behind the passage of Friday’s cold front. Most of next week is looking below to well below normal. Time to start thinking about stocking up that wood pile. Long Range charts show another big blast of the coldest air so far this season the following week…

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