Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 7:24a Showers this afternoon will give way to a steadier and heavier axis of rain overnight and into the predawn hours Tuesday. We continue to believe a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/video-timing-out-weather-conditions-for-the-all-important-thanksgiving-week-cold-pattern-evolves/
Nov 19
Updated 11.19.23 @ 9:13a If you still need to put up those Christmas lights and other holiday decor, take our advice and use today to get that done. An area…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/19/video-getting-the-yuck-out-of-the-way-ahead-of-thanksgiving-cold-close-to-november-and-open-to-december/
Nov 18
Updated 11.18.23 @ 10:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/18/video-pre-thanksgiving-day-storm-and-a-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a
The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.
First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.
These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.
We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.
It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.
At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 6:46a Happy Friday, friends! A cold front will come barreling through central Indiana around lunchtime and put an end to our unseasonably mild air, but also the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/video-much-colder-pattern-develops-to-close-november/
Nov 16
Updated 11.16.23 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/16/video-thanksgiving-week-and-arctic-air-gets-back-involved-in-the-pattern/
Nov 15
Updated 11.15.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/15/video-thanksgiving-forecast-and-a-little-wintry-mischief-to-close-november/
Nov 14
Updated 11.14.23 @ 6:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/14/video-colder-late-month-changes/
Nov 13
Updated 11.13.23 @ 1:50p
Good afternoon, Clients! As additional seasonal guidance updates, we wanted to take a moment to review the latest trends with you as that data becomes available. Today, the latest JMA monthly product updated and “doubles down” on the idea of an overall mild, but active December morphing into a colder, stormy eastern US regime come January and February. Overall, the model is very consistent from October’s update.
December
Highlights
I. A milder than normal open to meteorological winter, but quite an active pattern on a widespread level- centered Central and Southern tier.
II. Lets keep an eye on the potential of a colder pattern to evolve the last 10 days, or so, of December.
January
Highlights
I. Ridge pulls back into the “sweet spot” and subsequent trough develops across the East. (Would watch for potential of cold to grow more widespread in the next update should this 500mb be accurate, and we think it is).
II. Active Nino southern stream delivers a hectic and busy pattern across the southern tier and up the eastern seaboard. Ripe pattern for eastern winter storm threat(s).
February
Highlights
I. Persistent pattern from January. If anything, ‘mean’ trough/ ridge positions only become that much more prominent. Cold becomes more widespread across the East, compared to January. Again, should the upper air pattern be correct, I’d lean that the model will have to grow colder in time for this period.
II. Very stormy southern and eastern seaboard. Likely multiple attempts at wintry “fun and games,” including deep into the south with this pattern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/doubling-down-on-the-winter-idea/
Nov 13
Updated 11.13.23 @ 7:25a It’s not that we’re talking about some sort of major storm (at least not from this distance), but when you factor the difference between this week’s…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/13/video-the-calm-before-the-storm/