Nov 26
Updated 11.26.23 @ 8:50a A wintry mix of rain and snow across central Indiana will fall as predominantly all snow across the northern 1/3 of the state where the best…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/26/video-wintry-mix-today-gives-way-to-the-coldest-air-so-far-this-season-to-open-the-new-work-week/
Nov 25
Updated 11.25.23 @ 9:33a
We’re waking up to cold (lows bottomed out in the middle 20s for most central Indiana neighborhoods) but dry conditions. While we’ll deal with more clouds today, dry conditions will hold today and tonight.
A weak system will move through the Ohio Valley Sunday with a wintry mix of wet snow and a cold rain across central Indiana, mostly rain downstate, and all snow across north-central and northern Indiana. Sunday will dawn dry but light precipitation will overspread the state from west to east through the mid morning hours. We don’t envision any sort of snow accumulation with the exception of far western central Indiana (dusting) northeast into the northern 1/3 of the state (1”-2” amounts on grassy and elevated surfaces). Generally speaking we think the accumulation potential is greatest from Rockville to Kokomo, and up to Fort Wayne. Light precipitation will end as a brief period of light snow Sunday night into Indianapolis but “light” is the key word and we don’t expect any accumulation concerns in the city, itself.
The coldest air so far this season blows into town as we open the work week. In fact, highs may struggle to reach freezing Tuesday, including morning lows into the 10s.
After Sunday, from a precipitation perspective, we’re talking about a very dry and quiet regime until we get to Friday. We’ll close the work week with a new storm system that will deliver a rainy Friday.
By this point, a transition to milder times will be underway so we don’t expect any sort of p-type challenges with this particular system.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/25/saturday-morning-rambles-a-bookend-forecast/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 8:32p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/long-range-update-interesting-times/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 7:50a Quiet, but colder (and blustery) weather will be with us for our Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. Our next weather maker arrives Sunday as the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/video-colder-air-flows-in-talking-sunday-snow-and-wintry-mix/
Nov 23
Updated 11.23.23 @8:21a Here’s wishing you and your family a blessed and very happy Thanksgiving holiday. We’re so incredibly thankful for your support- and more importantly friendship over the years.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/23/giving-thanks-and-talking-a-little-snow/
Nov 22
Updated 11.22.23 @ 3:03p
We’ve been keying in for several days on the energy that will lead to a Thanksgiving and Black Friday Winter Storm for the Rockies, and eventually a swath of accumulating snow into the Plains over the holiday weekend. To no surprise, modeling continues to trend more organized with this energy as it moves across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. The time we’re monitoring for potential wintry impacts across central Indiana come early Sunday morning, continuing into the afternoon.
As bullish as we’ve been on this trending towards a more substantial system, capable of producing snow, locally, we remain confident that this won’t be some sort of significant winter storm. Why? Pattern recognition on both fronts. That said, the potential of a light snow accumulation across central Indiana Sunday is very much alive and kicking as of this evening. Know that we’ll be here right through the holiday and the weekend tracking the latest and will continue to keep you posted moving forward.
Regardless if we receive snow or not, the coldest air so far this season is on deck early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/22/models-trend-more-organized/
Nov 22
Updated 11.22.23 @ 7:48a A dry (but at times breezy) airmass will continue settling overhead just in time for our Thanksgiving holiday. High pressure will keep us quiet until Sunday.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/22/video-dry-weather-returns-just-in-time-for-thanksgiving-cold-pattern-settles-in-to-close-november-and-open-december/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/evening-video-update-the-trend-is-your-friend-winter-fans/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:24a A cold front will work through the region this morning. We’ll notice a wind shift to the northwest and colder air building into central Indiana through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/video-calming-things-down-just-in-time/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/