Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Jan 07

Updated Thinking On Monday Night-Tuesday And Late Week…

Updated 01.07.24 @ 3:27p

While we’ll enjoy a quiet open to the work week, our next storm system is already organizing to our west and will deliver a heavy wind-whipped rain event, bookended by wintry precipitation Monday night into Wednesday morning.

Rainfall numbers will approach, if not exceed, the 1″ mark for most Indiana rain gauges with this system- the majority of which falls overnight Monday through the 1st half of Tuesday.

A wintry mix of wet snow and/ or sleet will likely be the predominant precipitation type along and north of I-70 at the onset of precipitation tomorrow night, but this doesn’t appear as if it’ll last long enough to create long lasting travel problems. In short, a quick transition to plain ole rain is anticipated after the onset of wintry precipitation. Safe to say, the Tuesday morning commute will be a messy one across the region.

Winds will also to around 40 MPH overnight into Tuesday morning as the area of low pressure lifts up to our west.

As colder air wraps back into the region Tuesday night, left over rain will transition to wet snow, continuing into Wednesday morning.

Just as soon as we finish with this system, attention will shift to a brewing winter storm as we close out the work week. While it’s impossible to get too specific on the all-important track of this system, it’s safe to say that this should be another potent area of low pressure, including more in the way of cold air to work with. With the arctic branch of the jet digging south, it won’t take much for this system to phase and actually be a more intense storm than its predecessor. That said, we have a long, long way to go before we can talk about where the heaviest swath of snow will set up in the Friday/ Saturday timeframe. It’ll be important to stay abreast of future forecast updates in the days ahead.

Bitterly cold, arctic air will be unleashed east through mid-January. Note the coast-to-coast arctic air taking up residence towards Day 10.

Our benchmarks have been set…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/07/updated-thinking-on-monday-night-tuesday-and-late-week/

Jan 07

VIDEO: What A Pattern…

Updated 01.07.24 @ 7:32a Light snow will slowly come to an end through the morning hours and we’ll have around 24 hours, or so, to catch our breath before the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/07/video-what-a-pattern/

Jan 06

VIDEO: Light Snow Redevelops Tonight; Active, Wintry Pattern Only Ramping Up…

Updated 01.06.24 @ 7:57a An area-wide 1.5″ to 2.5″ (locally heavier) snow is greeting folks early this Saturday morning. It’s the type of wet snow that truly gives that winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/06/video-light-snow-redevelops-tonight-active-wintry-pattern-only-ramping-up/

Jan 04

VIDEO: Multiple Impactful Storms Into Mid Month; Discussing Overnight Ensemble Trends…

Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/video-multiple-impactful-storms-into-mid-month-discussing-overnight-ensemble-trends/

Jan 02

VIDEO: Tracking 2 Storms In The Short-Term; Long Range Pattern Rumblings- Both For And Against Sustainable Cold…

Updated 01.02.24 @ 7:50a The next few days are quiet and will allow us to catch our breath ahead of a blitz of storm systems that start this weekend and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/02/video-tracking-2-storms-in-the-short-term-long-range-pattern-rumblings-both-for-and-against-sustainable-cold/

Jan 01

Couple Thoughts On This Weekend And Next Week’s Storms; Colder Trends Build Long Term…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 6:41p

I hope you and your family are enjoying an incredible New Year’s Day! What a game we have on our hands at halftime in the Rose Bowl.

I post this in flight back to home base from ushering in the new year in the beautiful Berkshire mountains. Our regularly scheduled client video discussions will return tomorrow morning. I trust you’ve been following along with both short and long term pattern ideas daily over the past week.

The immediate term opens with quiet and unseasonably calm conditions while the end of the upcoming 10-day stretch will end much colder. The transition between start and finish will turn much more hectic around these parts as we track not one, but two storm systems between this weekend and early next week. While there’s no doubt we’ll trend colder than average by Day 10, questions abound with just how cold we go. Should we get a snowpack down, subzero is on the table.

Speaking of the aforementioned more “hectic” pattern, this kicks into gear over the weekend. While modeling likes more of a suppressed track at this distance, thinking here is that guidance will start to pick up on a more organized northern piece of energy, or surface low reflection, that will accompany the primary Gulf low. I suspect a secondary, organized, shield of precipitation into the OHV region Friday night into Saturday. Will that be enough to put our neck of the woods into a winter storm risk during this timeframe? Too early to call at this distance, but given where the PNA, EPO, and Greenland Block that will be starting to mature, I’d recommend keeping an eye on what will likely be an eventual click or two northwest as the week goes along. It’s likely either a “snow or no” type situation here with storm #1, as opposed to having to worry about rain or mixing issues.

As for storm #2 early next week, our early idea takes the primary low into the OHV before a secondary low “takes over” along the eastern seaboard. The energy transfer likely brings just enough mild air north into the central Ohio Valley to create more of a rain to snow type scenario, locally. The coldest air of the season so far will likely follow in the 10-15 day.

Speaking of the 10-15 day, the look above is an absolute textbook upper air pattern not only for cold, but continued opportunities of winter weather here as we rumble into mid-January. By this point, other long term pattern drivers, such as the NAO and AO (of course to go along with the MJO, PNA, and EPO) will be factored in to where we head not only for the 2nd half of the month, but into late winter and spring. Recent trends certainly suggest the colder options are gaining traction. Today’s European Weekly update reflects a more persistent stretch of high latitude blocking I can remember o/ the past few winters. This ups the ante for a stormy stretch into and through the heart of winter. Given the longer term NAO and MJO look, I’d suspect the colder threat (relative to normal) is on the table into spring this year.

Much more in the AM! Make it a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/couple-thoughts-on-this-weekend-and-next-weeks-storms-colder-trends-build-long-term/

Jan 01

Happy New Year; All Is Calm (For Now)…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!

The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂

A calm, quiet start to the new year is on tap.

Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.

Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?

Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.

Happy new year!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/

Dec 31

Potential Is Mighty, But Can It Turn To Reality?

Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p

We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.

It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?

While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.

Details to follow in the week ahead!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/

Dec 31

Thoughts On The First Couple Weeks Of The Year (And Beyond)…

Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a

The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.

The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:

Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.

After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.

The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.

Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/

Dec 28

Snowy At Times For Some; Updated Long Range Thoughts…

Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:09a

Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a

There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).

As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:

Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.

The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).

Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.

Week 1

Week 2

While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.

European Weekly update 12/29/23

The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/28/snowy-at-times-for-some-updated-long-range-thoughts/

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