Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Feb 02

Friday Morning Notes On The Pattern Ahead…

Updated 02.02.24 @ 7:37a

We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.

2/2 – 2/8

2/9 – 2/16

Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.

In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.

A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/02/friday-morning-notes-on-the-pattern-ahead/

Feb 01

Welcome To February…

Updated 02.01.24 @ 7:45a Aside from a dry back door cold front overnight, all is quiet in the weather world, locally, but changes are on the horizon around the 10th…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/01/welcome-to-february/

Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies
Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/31/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/

Jan 29

“Steady As She Goes:” No Need To Change Ongoing Ideas Of Milder Than Normal Open To February Followed By Cold, Wintry Pattern Thereafter…

Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:42p

Let’s get to the headline right out of the gate: Winter is far, far from over. While we don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing long range pattern ideas, I did want to touch on the overall regime for February into March during this evening’s discussion.

Subsequently, we’re also continuing to lean into the milder than normal pattern that will be with us as we close January and navigate the first 1/3 of February. Today’s medium range model data backs this up well.

Day 1-5

Days 5-10

Days 10-15

Overall, the next couple of weeks should also result in a drier than normal pattern, locally.

It should come as no surprise given the teleconnection suite (all in warm phases, with the exception of the PNA which will result in cooler anomalies at times across the Southeast region). We note these same teleconnections shifting towards the colder phases around, or just before the 10th of February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation also is in the notorious warm phases.

Before 2/10, any cold will be fleeting and nothing significant given the time of year. Overall, an unseasonably mild pattern will dominate.

Post 2/10, we’re going to see a shift towards colder times. A lot of this has to do with the alignment amongst the teleconnections. Throw in the MJO heading into the frigid (for this time of year) Phase 8 and you have the potential to eventually see the pattern deliver the magnitude of cold we just saw come late February. (In case you missed it, we already set the bar on the type of cold we envision developing late February).

Given the NAO heading into the tank by this point, there’s fear this particular round of cold would likely have more staying power than it’s January predecessor. “Phase 8 MJO WITH a strongly negative NAO?” Look out below…

Interestingly, the NEW European Weeklies are going right to this set-up and perhaps the most bullish I’ve seen over a 30-day period from this distance. Winter is far, far from over, indeed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/29/steady-as-she-goes-no-need-to-change-ongoing-ideas-of-milder-than-normal-open-to-february-followed-by-cold-wintry-pattern-thereafter/

Jan 26

VIDEO: Wet Snow Accumulation For Parts Of The Region Sunday Morning; Pattern Evolution Into Early March…

Updated 01.26.24 @ 7:38a A quiet but gloomy and unseasonably mild close to the work week can be expected before a weak system skirts the region Saturday evening into predawn…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/video-wet-snow-accumulation-for-parts-of-the-region-sunday-morning-pattern-evolution-into-early-march/

Jan 25

VIDEO: Source Region Change For Our Storm Systems Between Now And Next Week; Establishing A Bar On Just How Cold We Get Next Month…

Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/25/video-source-region-change-for-our-storm-systems-between-now-and-next-week-establishing-a-bar-on-just-how-cold-we-get-next-month/

Jan 24

Wet Times Give Way To A Drier Week 2; Unseasonably Mild Open To February…

Updated 01.24.24 @ 6:09a

Week 1 remains significantly wetter than normal across not only our neck of the woods but a good chunk of the East.

This will give way to a quieter Week 2 timeframe.

There’s some threat that the southern tier and immediate eastern seaboard never is fully able to relish in the magnitude of the warm anomalies the majority of the rest of us will see as we roll through early February. Just to reiterate, as much as we believe cold, wintry weather returns in February, it’s not after a significant period of milder times (compared to average) to open the month- likely the first 10-14 days.

Just how mild are we talking? Several days with highs into the 40s and even 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This compares to early Feb “norms” in the low 20s and highs into the upper 30s. It’s a byproduct of the MJO and alignment with the teleconnections (PNA aside) in the warm phases. As shown Monday in our LR video, we believe this all flips around in a big way later into the month, continuing into March.

In the short term, additional waves of rain (and dense fog) will keep things gloomy around these parts. Most widespread rain will come at us now through late morning before returning Thursday evening-overnight. Most rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 0.75” to as much as 1.25”+ during this time period.

Modeling continues to differ in a major fashion with the weekend storm. The GFS is further north with heavy precipitation and a transition to leftover snow showers, locally while the European takes the suppressed route. Today will likely bring alignment between the two solutions. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/24/wet-times-give-way-to-a-drier-week-2-unseasonably-mild-open-to-february/

Jan 23

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

Updated 01.23.24 @ 7:11a

Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.

The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.

Periods of rain can be expected through the remainder of the week.

Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.

That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/23/tuesday-morning-rambles-7/

Jan 22

VIDEO: Short And Long Term Ideas- Any Thoughts Of Winter’s Demise Premature In Our Opinion…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-short-and-long-term-ideas-any-thoughts-of-winters-demise-premature-in-our-opinion/

Jan 22

VIDEO: Icy Setup Tonight Gives Way To Foggy, Wet, But Milder Times Ahead…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-icy-setup-tonight-gives-way-to-foggy-wet-but-milder-times-ahead/

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