Mar 15
Updated 03.15.24 @ 7:29a After a busy and noisy Thursday, we are thankfully able to calm things down in significant fashion today. A narrow (insignificant) band of showers may impact…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/15/video-cooler-air-flows-in-impacts-on-precipitation-over-the-upcoming-couple-of-weeks/
Mar 14
Updated 03.14.24 @ 7:37a We’re tracking 2 rounds of storms that’ll impact central IN today: around lunchtime and again for the evening commute. While both rounds of storms stand a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/14/video-timing-out-2-rounds-of-strong-severe-storms-trending-cooler-into-next-week/
Mar 13
Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a
Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.
A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.
We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.
Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.
Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.
As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.
More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/13/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/
Mar 12
Updated 03.12.24 @ 5:44a High pressure will remain in control of our weather today with plentiful sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures. More in the way of unsettled weather builds in…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/12/video-high-and-dry-now-but-changes-loom-as-early-as-tomorrow-colder-pattern-takes-shape-next-week/
Mar 11
Updated 03.11.24 @ 7:51a It’s more of the same this week as unseasonably warm temperatures dominate the headlines. We’ll turn unsettled by late week and this will signal a pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/11/video-warm-times-this-week-give-way-to-a-colder-pattern-unsettled-late-week-and-potential-of-snow-by-early-next-week/
Mar 10
Updated 03.10.24 @ 8:21a
Another unseasonably mild week awaits, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we’re not finished with the cold yet. The transition to a colder time of things next week will come with unsettled conditions late this week and the weekend (I know, timing isn’t on our side).
Forecast Period: 03.10.24 – 03.17.24
The period will open with dry and seasonably chilly conditions before a southwesterly flow takes hold and helps promote yet another quick warm-up in the work week ahead. A weak and fast moving system may deliver some scattered showers midweek but the lions share of our moisture this week will come Thursday and Friday. Colder air then pours in here over the weekend with the potential of snow getting involved by this time next week.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
*10-Day Rainfall projection: 0.75” – 1.50”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-47/
Mar 09
Updated 03.09.24 8:14a
It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.
In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.
That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.
This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.
The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:
Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?
The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.
A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).
No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/09/long-range-report-period-opens-with-more-of-the-same-but-cooler-than-normal-for-a-change-late-month/
Mar 08
Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/08/video-rain-increases-in-intensity-by-evening-mjo-influences-on-the-longer-range/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 5:30a
Today and Wednesday (at least during the daytime) are about as quiet and pleasant as it can get for late-February. After another cold start, we’ll quickly warm into the 50s later this afternoon. We’ll do even better than that come Wednesday as highs flirt with the 60° mark. Patio, anyone?!
Moisture won’t make a return until overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. We note modeling is honing in on central and southern Indiana for the potential of heaviest rain during the period (most of which falls Thursday morning into the afternoon) and we may also see a couple of thunderstorms thrown into the mix, especially downstate. A solid 0.50″ to 1″ appears most reasonable for area rain gauges.
Behind this feature, a brief drop in temperatures can be expected for the weekend, but we won’t really even be able to call this air mass “cold” by late February standards. Nonetheless, trailing upper level energy and just enough cooler air will be enough to ignite a few snow showers Saturday.
We want to reiterate that this upcoming weekend’s snow potential is nothing compared to last weekend and we’ll be right back into the 50s and 60s by Sunday!
That brings us to early next week. While still a bit too far out to get specific, the potential of a more potent storm system is there and we’ll have to keep close tabs on the threat of a more widespread rain and embedded strong storm threat as we get closer. More on this feature in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/on-cruise-control-but-there-are-a-few-bumps-on-the-road/
Feb 19
Updated 02.19.24 @ 8:37a An upper level ridge will expand across the eastern portion of the country as we close February and open March. The result will be an increasingly…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/19/video-spring-like-pattern-to-close-february-and-open-march/