Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Sep 30

Toasty Open To October Takes A Back Seat Late Next Week…

Updated 09.30.23 @ 7:44a

There’s no reason to waste a bunch of pixels on our weather over the next 5 days. Despite morning fog in spots (a byproduct of just enough lingering moisture from rain earlier this week along with the longer nights) we’re talking about a “rinse and repeat” regime with plentiful sunshine and seasonably cool mornings warming quickly to well above normal levels during the afternoon.

High pressure will dominate our weather through Wednesday with dry skies.

2 cold fronts will have eyes on our region late week. The 1st boundary will increase our cloud cover and offer up a passing shower Thursday. The 2nd cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley around a week from today and provide a shot of much cooler air to close the weekend and open the following week.

Moisture levels don’t look impressive with either frontal passage at this point. If we can squeak out 0.10″ we’ll have to count ourselves lucky.

The coolest air of the young autumn season will filter into our region next weekend. A total reversal of the upper air pattern we open the period with…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/toasty-open-to-october-takes-a-back-seat-late-next-week/

Sep 29

VIDEO: Warm Days With Plentiful Sunshine Into Early Next Week; True Fall Feel Takes Hold Late Next Week…

Updated 09.29.23 @ 7:42a

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Sep 28

VIDEO: Dry Times Return; “Jailbreak” Pattern Next Week…

Updated 09.28.23 @ 7:50a Our warm open to October will reverse in big time fashion week after next. In other exciting news, our annual winter outlook will be posted Sunday…

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Sep 24

VIDEO: Better Rain Chances Return And Doubling Down On The Colder Mid-Oct Pattern Shift…

Updated 09.24.23 @ 10:44a

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Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/