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Forecast Updated 02.19.14 @ 7:58a

Severe Weather And Flooding Potential…Today we’re focused on two rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain.  The first wave of rain and thunder will “rumble” through the region Thursday morning.  We don’t anticipate severe weather with this initial wave, but thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours in spots as the warm front lifts north through the area.  After a chilly start, temperatures will suddenly zoom to close to 60 by the afternoon.

Our attention will then turn west as we watch a line of thunderstorms organize this afternoon.  Within this line of storms damaging straight line winds will be a possibility (in excess of 60 MPH) as it crosses the state.  We bracket 5PM to 9PM for the most likely period for severe weather here in central Indiana.  We think the greatest severe threat will lie within the squall line, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as some data today tries to develop a couple of stronger individual cells in advance of the squall line.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to local radars and your favorite media outlet.

Heavy rain and flooding will be the other concern, especially when combined with a presently frozen ground and hefty snow pack.  If you live in, or around, a flood prone area please monitor water levels tomorrow and prepare to move to higher ground.

Finally, strong and gusty northwest winds will blow tonight and may reach speeds close to 50 MPH as low pressure deepens heading north into the Great Lakes.  “Bombogenesis” and “fresh water fury” will be accurate terms to describe this low as it rapidly strengthens heading northeast into the Lakes region.  With a wet ground, additional wind damage is possible even behind the cold front with winds gusting in the 50 MPH range.

Drier, Chilly Close To The Week…The above mentioned gusty northwest winds will allow a cooler air mass to blow in to wrap up the work week.  We think dry skies return Friday and continue into Saturday.

Watching Fast Moving Disturbances; Bitter Cold Returns…We’ll continue to keep a close eye on disturbances moving east over the weekend.  Disagreement amongst forecast models continues Sunday and we’ll “split the difference” and forecast light snow potential Sunday for now.  Another disturbance may deliver light snow late Monday into Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, the arctic express will return and deliver a bitter feel to our air mass. Looking longer term, there continue to be indications that we have to deal with a bitterly cold close to February and open to March.  In fact, latest data carries this cold and wintry regime well into March…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

• 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.25″
• 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Forecast Updated 02.18.14 @ 9:27a

Calmer Couple Of Days…After another winter storm event, we’ll welcome a calmer couple of days with open arms.  Weather conditions will improve from a blustery and slick start Tuesday with sunshine and temperatures moderating back to seasonal levels by the afternoon.  While it’ll feel much milder compared to what we’ve grown accustomed to, we’ll really be right where temperatures should be for this time of year.  Dry and seasonable weather continues Wednesday.

Stormy Thursday…A cold front will blow through the region Thursday and will be responsible for producing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms.  We’re targeting southern Indiana for a potential episode of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.  Further north, a damaging wind report or two cannot be ruled out as a line of thunderstorms blows through Thursday afternoon/ evening, and this does include the greater Indianapolis metro.

Additionally, a flooding threat will be very real Thursday, especially considering rainfall numbers will approach the one inch mark and combine with a heavy snow pack and frozen ground.  Those in flood prone areas should prepare now to seek higher ground Thursday as heavy rain and snow melt combine to lead to dangerous water rise.

All in all, Thursday stands to be yet another active weather day here in the Hoosier state.  Stay tuned.

Colder Air Return; Eyeing Snow Potential Closely…We’re confident on two things in the mid to long range- a return of well below normal temperatures and snow.  That said, there are many difference between the European, Canadian, and GFS at present in how they handle waves of energy moving east.  We think at least one of these areas of low pressure produces accumulating snow across central Indiana, but it’s still a bit early to determine which one that will be.  We sum things up with this note: the weekend will turn colder and stands to be another snowy one.  As of now, a blend of the model data would point towards Sunday offering the best shot at accumulating snow at this juncture, but caution this can change as we move forward.

Even longer term, a potentially record-breaking cold spell looms to wrap up February and head into March…

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Our snowy pattern is rolling along with no signs of stopping anytime in the foreseeable future. We forecast 2-4″ of new snow tonight through Tuesday morning. A combination of an…

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Here’s a quick video update on the light snow inbound… Much more later!

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This post is coming to you from the beautiful sandy shores of the Florida panhandle. As a result, posts will be a bit erratic over the next week, or so,…

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